Aside from joining the NATO alliance, Sweden could seek to create or strengthen some other alliance. The Baltic sea and the Danish straits are important waterways to Russia, St Petersburg's access to the North Sea and the Atlantic. Russia's access to the Mediterranean goes through Turkey's (NATO) internal waterway. Both routes could effectively be shut down by a hostile navy.
Those are the conventional military-strategic concerns that are supposedly making Russia so nervous about NATO aggression. Crimea is (allegedly) important for Russia's naval security, so had to go back to Russian control. Actively driving a geographically strategic country, with resources into increasing it's naval power and seeking an alliance is losing at strategy.
On the economic, Oil prices have recently dropped. They may drop further. Russia is very reliant on oil revenues for public funding. Europe and the US are nearing the point of sanctions. Foreign investment is taking a hit. New energy projects like gas pipelines are unlikely. They do not need some pointless costly conflict.
IMO, it comes down to this. An direct NATO-Russia conflict is unlikely. The cost is too high for all parties. But tensions can rise and relations can deteriorate. Russia seems to think that's ok, borderline desirable.