I hesitate to comment about the relative velocities of open source vs proprietary software because I do not have enough experience with commercial, third party software. My sample size is too small, but I'm inclined to agree with you.
I don't disagree with your Machiavellian conspiracy, either, but I've worked in marketing and advertising so I know that some of the villains are on the payroll. Maybe there needs to be a third category? There's open source software, written by someone who has no particular relationship to you. There's commercial software, written by someone who has a positive economic relationship with you. And then there is ... corporate?... software, written by someone who might think they have a zero sum relationship with you.