Where do the people here think the first superintelligence come from?
This question is actually the topic of my masters research which will be published Summer of '15.
The top probability estimates are as follows in order of our likelihood:
1. Private for-profit company
2. State (Government/Military) laboratory
3. University laboratory
4. Open source project
5. Lone Wolf developer
These are based largely on where incentives for AGI implementation lie, where funding is most available and where activity is occurring.