That sort of wide confidence interval is more accurate, but it's also basically useless. How does a 2-16 inch forecast help a parent or school district or mayor plan for anything?
That sort of wide confidence interval is more accurate, but it's also basically useless. How does a 2-16 inch forecast help a parent or school district or mayor plan for anything?
A school administrator who sees a forecast of "14 inches" may simply cancel class the evening before, giving people time to prepare with certainty. That's nice, but not at the cost of a lost school day and calendar disruptions.
A forecast of "2-16 inches, probably 14" might cause that same administrator to wait and see. TV and radio would broadcast the news about possible school closings the evening before, so parents could prepare. They might have a bit more difficulty planning, but that's worth it if the school day can be saved.
The NWS provides probabilistic accumulation guidance: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=48...
Similar to what this article suggests in its postscript, you wouldn't have to merely say 2-16 inches. Instead, you could say, "there's a 50% chance it'll be between 4-6 inches, and a 15% chance it'll be between 14-16."
Sometimes life is uncertain. The answer is to account for the uncertainty when planning, not insist that the information indicate certainty when it's not actually there.