It depends on how you define "programmer." At Microsoft in the late 90s/early 00s we were very happy that there were so many Visual Basic programmers, but several million of those included people who would not self-identify as a programmer. That is, they were people who would write VB oneliners in either Excel or Access; people who would make or modify "keyboard record & replay" macros; etc.
I agree that trying to make everybody a full-blown systems or application programmer seems like a very hard problem.