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Comment by cbr | Hacker News Reader

    Though the data we have is under constant scrutiny for
    its accuracy, methodology, and usefulness, the Centers
    for Disease Control reports that the current rate of
    autism diagnosis in the United States is 1 in 68. This
    is a continuation of a trend identified by the
    Environmental Protection Agency that started between
    1988 and 1992, when the worldwide diagnosis of autism
    spiked from 6 in 10,000 kids to 24 in 10,000.

The main problem with this data is that the definition of autism has expanded over time. The category of "aspergers", a relatively limited form, was eliminated and folded into "autism", making historical numbers hard to work with.

This article is mostly talking about the most low-functioning forms of autism, for which the numbers are far far lower than 1 in 68.

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>The main problem with this data is that the definition of autism has expanded over time.

How do we know this is the case and not that it was under-diagnosed in the past? I also see this logic with ADHD. Yet in the past, a lot of these children would be shoved off to group homes or labeled 'slow' and such. At least with diagnosis they have a chance for recovery. I don't think past diagnosis stats are unquestionable. We actually don't know what the real rate should be. At least not yet.

Some cases are ambiguous, as fuzzy definitions change over time. In this case, however, a name that once applied only to relatively severe cases has been intentionally expanded:

    The term "Asperger's disorder" will not appear in the
    DSM-5, the latest revision of the manual, and instead
    its symptoms will come under the newly added "autism
    spectrum disorder", which is already used widely. That
    umbrella diagnosis will include children with severe
    autism, who often do not talk or interact, as well as
    those with milder forms.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/dec/02/aspergers-syn...

It's certainly both. The definition has literally expanded (now including Asperger's), but with more awareness it's more likely people who are borderline autistic will be able to get diagnosed.

This all makes it very hard to answer the question "are more people today autistic than 50 years ago?"

Yeah. Autism is diagnosed by symptoms and the symptoms have changed over time. It used to be that an individual had to actively avoid social contact. Now they just need to be socially impaired even if they seek contact. As the symptoms have changed and as awareness has increased in the medical community, so have diagnoses increased.

I agree that it's not the insane uptick that the raw statistics would seem to indicate. But disputing that fact doesn't negate the fact that 1 in 68 kids has some form of disability (not saying you did... but I have seen that from some people as reason to dismiss the issue).

I actually don't care one bit about the diagnosis itself. It's not as if having the diagnosis means you can take a pill to get rid of it. The only benefit we got from a diagnosis came from insurance paying for certain claims they previously would not have.

And among those 1 in 68 are people whose brilliance in extricably tied to that disability -- including most of the greatest scientists of past and present.

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