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Comment by jkelsey | Hacker News Reader

So, I'll ask the more cynical question -- how does this affect Ed Snowden's chances of getting a pardon and being allowed to come home?

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"The Academy" is ~6,000 people. They're also pretty much the people you hear politicians call "Hollywood Elites".

So the award itself probably doesn't mean anything. I guess the associated publicity might lead a few more people to watch the film.

I think a straight pardon is unlikely for the next 10 years, unless something on the order of the Church Committee happens, if not more. (IIRC you have to be convicted to be pardoned, anyway)

However, I could see some kind of immunity from prosecution granted to get him out of Russia, and to confirm what documents were released, happening in a somewhat more marginal change (maybe at the next Presidential transition, but probably not). This would be lesser, because it wouldn't be saying "what you did was right", just that it's in the national interest to end the whole affair.

> (IIRC you have to be convicted to be pardoned, anyway)

Nixon was pardoned without conviction.

Yah. This seems to be a sufficient lay summary:

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/05/opinion/l-constitution-all...

Not much likely, but I think the idea that Snowden was just the guy who pulled the switch and not the one who caused the fire might be gaining ground. That might bring a change ultimately in to how people view things. Then, at some point, a political figure might be ready to exploit that view, for gaining more votes and there you have it... Democracy at it's best ;-)

He's not getting a pardon anytime soon (which is a shame), but in the long run, I don't see how this hurts.

I wouldn't be so sure. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a pardon as Obama's leaving office.

I would be very surprised. Think about how much of what Snowden revealed reflected poorly on the Obama administration.

I guess it really comes down to who has the last say. If it's Obama personally then I can see it happening. Being willing to pardon someone who has done you harm because it's the right thing to do is great way to build a nice legacy, especially since you're retiring anyway and it's no longer your problem.

Have you ever seen movies changing anything in the political world?

I'm sure there's lots of examples, but in the documentary world, The Thin Blue Line was about a man wrongfully accused of murder on death row, who was retried and released as a direct result of the movie.

Also, I think Triumph of the Will played a huge part in helping Hitler come to power. And in the US, The Birth of a Nation helped the KKK explode in popularity. These aren't particularly uplifting examples, but I think it's clear that a popular movie can have a huge effect on the political landscape.

Similarly (but less directly), the sympathetic treatment given in the 2011 Richard Linklater film "Bernie" is believed by some to have been instrumental in the release of a convicted murderer from his life sentence.

The film is great, incidentally.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Tiede http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_(2011_film)

"Triumph des Willens" was released in 1935, two years after the Nazis grabbed power.

Yeah my bad, I remembered wrong. Maybe it helped cement his power? We definitely talked about this in some history class I took, but I can't find any good references online, so maybe that's a bad example.

So, what, you don't believe in retrocausality?

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After

This movie was a catalyst in national conversation about nuclear proliferation, and there's evidence that its impact included President Reagan.

It was also broadcast on prime time in an era when that meant a greater number of simultaneous viewers, of course.

He has to come back and face justice first. After he's found guilty, he can be pardoned. He's too much of a coward to go that route though.

Plenty of people have been pardoned without being charged, tried, or found guilty; the most well-known example being Richard Nixon.

The idea that Snowden must first be found guilty in order to be pardoned is simply false, the pardon power is plenary and has no such restriction.

I'm not talking about legal requirements. I'm talking about taking responsibility.

Thats not true. Snowden have said several times that if he can get a fair trial, he would jump on the first plane to the US. However, the US have not guaranteed him that in any way. He does not want to end up like Chelsea Manning.

Because his definition of a fair trial is one where classified information is made public.

Yea, pretty cowardly to not want to be executed or spend life in prison.

If you're going to commit treason, be prepared to accept the consequences for treason. To commit the crime and then flee the country to avoid prosecution is complete cowardice.

He's probably just waiting for Manning to get pardoned first.

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