I think this is fairly self explanatory. Since iPad 1 launched, phones got bigger-better and the median laptop got more portable (weight, battery..). If you take a bag, your little laptop can come. If not, phones fit in pockets and need to come anyway. The space between the two got smaller, I agree.

My 3 years old Ipad's job is mostly watching movies on planes. It does that job well enough and I won't replace it unless it breaks. I just don't need any more from a tablet.

Honestly, I think iPad's will almost go the way of the ipod, but with tougher competition. Good enough.

OTOH, if I was king of the apple…. I think a good idea for a new product category is a ~€500 iOS laptop. Chrome OS is selling well, and I think Apple would probably do a better job in that general space. Iphone apps could run as 'widgets" which would automatically tick a lot of boxes (Skype, VLC.. whatever your non negotiable apps are).

There's still a poorly served market here. Home users who don't like computers much, don't want to spend a lot and need something simple that works.

I don't know if you still call that an iPad, but I reckon it'd sell.