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Bubble_Pop_22

109 karma · joined May 9, 2022

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Bubble_Pop_22··on Bankman-Fried being invited to speak at a New York Times event alongside Yellen
Why would they un-invite him though? After Pete Carrol made the call to pass on the 1-yd line , everybody wanted to interview him. Much more than they wanted to hear from Bellichick.
Bubble_Pop_22··on The 'Myth of Elon Musk' Was His Most Valuable Asset
Total likeability is the only data that matters

Urban vs. non-urban or the location of the believers vs. haters, all that is only a concern of people who are entrusted by the parties leadership to engage in massive operations of gerrymandering.

Bubble_Pop_22··on The 'Myth of Elon Musk' Was His Most Valuable Asset
Yes, it was. Myth by definition implies a scenario in which everyone who knows you loves you. It maybe impossible to reach that milestone but it should be no less than 75% likeability.

Musk likeability is now well below 50%, it's way less than Biden's , on par with Trump's

A social movement is only on the rise as long as the number of believers is greater than the number of skeptics, as soon as there is a reversal the downward spiral begins.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Ask HN: Should students be taught the benefits of having and raising children?
What are the benefits of having and raising children?
Bubble_Pop_22··on FTX’s ownership of a U.S. bank raises questions
> then it could be the paper’s moment to shine

The NYT having SBF speak at one of their conferences would be the paper's moment to shine?

Bubble_Pop_22··on Being OK with not being extraordinary (2021)
The problem is that the ability to self-promote is inversely proportional to the promotee mental health.

You could in theory put a white blanket on your head and pretend to be a Saudi Sheikh to pickup chicks at nightclubs but come showtime you’d not be able to get hard due to lack of self-confidence which brought you to lie in the first place, so what’s the point?

The best is to be able to put together a certain initial capital and just outsource self promotion.

Every person who handles their own self-promotion are people who have mental issues, especially in the tech world. Compare it with how chill are those who outsource such as musicians. Rappers nowadays or rockstars in the 80s. Their managers have to drag them kicking and screaming away from drugs and parties to do media and promotion

Bubble_Pop_22··on Ask HN: Are You a Professional Gambler?
Poker is not gambling anymore than the stock market is. You pay your stock broker in the form of fees and you pay the casino some fees.

Specifically you pay Steve Wynn or the Bellagio for the fact that they are hosting the game and providing fair and impartial personnel. So you avoid getting scammed at a table where people collaborate to screw you over.

Professional poker players are great at smelling newbies and inject themselves in games where their skill level is way above others at the table.

They manage to do so because if you think about it poker is the best environment to do this. You would not start a fight against a 6ft5 bodybuilder but Phil Helmuth you would never pick him from the crowd.

Most importantly the rich guy from Russia or the Gulf will never be able to pick him and avoid the table he is sitting at. Once they sit they already lost

Bubble_Pop_22··on Being OK with not being extraordinary (2021)
> "The internet always highlights the first place winners, the billionaires, the award-winning artists, the best-selling authors, the largest philanthropists, the extraordinary. Their stories are ones of success, of inspiration"

The intro outlines the fact that the author is not familiar with the promotional industry.

Allowing for some rare exceptions all the people whose name you know are the people who want to be known and go out of their way to self-promote.

It's not about the quality of the work per se but the noise being generated around it. All those stories of mega-success are generated by PR and marketing firms and the person who is the protagonist most likely went for a stroll in Central Park after the meeting, and be sure that nobody genuflected or got on their knees to kiss the ring. Michael Bloomberg took the subaway every day.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Elon Musk Is Addressing Issue of Child Sexual Exploitation Content on Twitter
Legit feels like hearing from Saddam head of propaganda. Baghdad Bob was his name if I recall correctly
Bubble_Pop_22··on Pfizer CEO claims 400% price hike on Covid vaccines will be “free”
It's 4$ times 4. So 16$ ?
Bubble_Pop_22··on Anti-Woke Bank GloriFi to Shut Down
They are smart instead because they analyze VCs peculiar political preferences/bias and build a company which is guranteed to raise money.

It’s kinda like applying for govt grants or bidding for govt contracts. You read the document and then create a tailor made company to fit all the requirements

Bubble_Pop_22··on Ask HN: Again: The “I want to do everything but end up doing nothing” dilemma
There is no higher accomplishment than living in the moment. % of time spent living in the moment is the most important metric I can think of.

The "problem" is that it's something that you can't see in others, whereas wealth, assets etc. are for everybody to see and so people start competing to get those things.

There lies the difference however, to call yourself a competitive person you must be able to compete without ever knowing how you are faring against others, that's the ultimate form of competition. That's also how life begins. A Spermatozoon doesn't know and won't ever know the position of other spermatozoa, if they are ahead, behind etc. in the race to get to the egg. They only know that they have to swim as fast as they possibly can.

Likewise humans can't possibly know the amount of time that other humans are spending living in the moment, but, like sperm, you don't need to because your goal is to get as close as you can to 100%

Bubble_Pop_22··on IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle
> I don't think famous scientists like Einstein were particularly wealthy.

Wealth is a means to get yourself novelty in the form of top notch products, services, experiences and trophy assets.

No amount of money would have bought Einstein the novelty he was seeking. Many people chase that dragon for their whole life and never get to take a hit.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Musk’s Twitter reign magnified his brutal management style
> If you have a startup with a true value of 1B, but sell shares at a 100B valuation, this is a huge win for you and the company

This stuff doesn't happen organically. It needs constant self-promotion and over-exageration of everything that the company does. And in turn such culture starts from the top. Musk is no 80s rockstar. He has no manager dragging him to do media, it's him who does media on his own volition to self-promote himself.

I could care less what's best for Musk and Tesla. I care what's best for me. In this case the consumer. Consumers are using many times per day the products and services of all the other top 50 companies in the Sp500. You look at the stats about penetration of Tesla cars and it's basically none, nobody is using them except for rich people in rich areas.

There are 1.6bn cars in the world and Teslas are some 2 millions? The backbone of the industrial economy. Not.

Koch Industries provided American consumers with way more quality of life than Musk ever will. The sane people who could care less about politics, techno-utopian hope, Mars and all the other unsubstantiated stuff that Musk sells, have no probelm admitting this simple fact.

Bubble_Pop_22··on FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried cashed out $300M during funding spree
> 1. The underlying logic behind earning to give is sound. You flying over to Africa or whatever to do charitable activities (digging a well?) is obviously going to be less impactful than you working at some high paid white collar job and then donating the money to pay some local laborers to do the same job.

Bill Gates has been trying to do this ever since the year 2000. Transfering quality of life from Seattle or Pasadena to a slum in Lagos or Nairobi is the hardest thing you could possibly do.

Humans are selfish so the moment the decision is made to allocate an X amount of money Piranhas start to attack the loot, both at home and abroad.

The dynamics of negotiations, pricing power, elasticity of supply and demand don't go out of the window just because a sum of money is destined to Africa or has "philantropy" stamped across.

At the end of the day you need people who do it for their own satisfaction, not for the money

Bubble_Pop_22··on “Negative/hate tweets will be max deboosted and demonetized”
And all the above is very bad for commerce. Social media should be lubricants for commerce, that's how they make money. Or in Twitter case they dont.

Given all that, the only way to monetize twitter is to use it as leverage on political leaders and business leaders. This was most likely Musk plan, he then got out-framed by the Delaware courts and lost all his confidence to punch up, so he's punching down by abusing employees.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Elon is engaged in something called “Whaling and Culling.”
Always 6-D chess with this guy, isn’t it?

Same with Trump.

The possibility of people in power being just guys who are aimlessly winging it never crosses the minds of those who have an inferiority complex

Bubble_Pop_22··on Qatar Bans Beer Sales at World Cup Stadiums
Gotta love a party where the host imposes its will on everybody else. Not.
Bubble_Pop_22··on Memento mori
Also not fall prey of FOMO. During the next trillion years We are going to miss out on stuff that is undoubtly much cooler than what we have during our lifespan.

So dom’t fall prey of cruise FOMO or any type of FOMO.

If you can go, great! If you cant, then remember to put it in perspective compared to trip to the Andromeda Galaxy you’ll miss for sure!

Bubble_Pop_22··on Memento mori
Spending with urgency when you are in the twilight of your life makes it so that the claim on other people labor is very weak, because the person spending has essentially no time to waste to haggle or complain about poor service
Bubble_Pop_22··on Memento mori
> He has more money than he can spend until he dies even if he raised his standard of living 10 times

For him the high standards of living is to look at the bank account and seeing his millions and thus feeling like a somebody in a hood of nonodies.

That’s the reasoning that propmts hoarders to hoard.

Me approaching the problem from a completely different angle I realized that if you live in Usa or Western Europe you are basically at the frontier of progress so if you are after a consequential jump in standard of living it will only come from society wide discoveries and inventions, not personal spending no matter how many millions you have. You’d be pushing on a string.

Maybe your father in law refuses to push on a string out of principle?

Bubble_Pop_22··on Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says layoffs will continue into next year
Only recently turned positive, it was negative until September:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT1YE

> High nominal interest rates are clearly themselves still bad for business

I don't get why nominal matters. Say you borrow 100k and have to pay it back with interest 1 year from now. Inflation rate as measured by CPI/PCE is higher than the interest rate of your fixed rate loan. What you do is basically mobilize that capital and transform it into products and services that you'll sell to customers.

Inflation works in your favor because prices of the goods that you sell during the year following you taking a loan, they rise at a higher rate than your fixed rate loan

Bubble_Pop_22··on Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says layoffs will continue into next year
> The layoffs will continue as long as interest rates remain high

Real rates are still negative. Isn't that all that matters?

Bubble_Pop_22··on Why SBF Is Especially Depressing: Where Did All the Heroes Go?
> Where Did All the Heroes Go?

They were never there to begin with.

JFK stole Illinois, Hendrix beat all his women and Brando was screwing kids as young as 11.

Separate the art from the artist, and make sure suspension of disbelief is turned back on as soon as the movie/concert ends. Same for businessmen/politicians . Keep disbelief on at all times and don't let naive wide-eyed individuals shame you because you don't associate with a social movement or even worse isolate you because you "don't believe in Elon" , whatever the fuck that means.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Largest EU economy can reach 100% ‘clean energy’ by 2035
Frankfurt is known to be one of the sunniest places in the world! /s

There are landslides wins to be had for politicians who can discern what people say they want from what they really want.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Accidental tech billionaires like Craig Newmark?
All the lottery winners who cashed out on prizes higher than 750M are in the US because no other country has such high jackpots

In order to be a billionaire you have to win the genetic lottery first and foremost, then the geographic lottery and then thoudands of business lotteries with each and every decision going your way.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Elon Musk defends himself in Tesla pay package trial
Life, Liberty and the pursuit of a 56B dollar salary
Bubble_Pop_22··on Accidental tech billionaires like Craig Newmark?
Every billionaire is an accidental billionaire.
Bubble_Pop_22··on Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself
> what did he do?

FTX loaned money to Alameda, the crypto hedge-fund made a series of bets and probably put some cash in illiquid assets too, but mostly irresponsible bets. Crypto market collapsed, bets that were worth billions with a decent liquidity now became worth millions with not so much liquidity.

They turned to their most harsh competitor hoping for a bailout kinda like how Microsoft saved Apple in the 90s . All that didn't happen, it was the the straw that broke the camel's back.

That's about it, when you are leveraged adverse market events can literally put any company out of business, no matter how giant it is. Chapter 11 is not the end of the world for old companies making real stuff that people will always want (say General Motors or Hertz), but in crypto where everything is about reputation there is no way FTX will ever be heard of ever again.

In the case of the crypto market adverse events of massive proportions repeat themselves every 5 years or so. It happened this year , together with inflation. It was due, at some point the chickens had to come home to roost.....whatever the fuck that means lol.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Ask HN: Twitter Competitors?
> For example, the academic community - from theoretical CS to systems to healthcare to biology to economics. I think probably 1/3 of faculty at top universities under the age of 40 have a twitter presence and tweet very useful things.

These people just don't buy stuff. Instagram and TikTok get the product in your face given that they are photo/video centric, whereas 90% of twitter images are memes which don't push any commerce. It's impossible to push influencer marketing on twitter because the platform never really embraced video/images.

> I have also found the journalistic and sports sections of Twitter to be very useful. For instance, where else does one get the latest football injury news, or line changes made on the san jose sharks?

I don't doubt that it's great for the dedicated user who takes time to curate their feed, but discussing about the flow of $ to buy eyeballs, Twitter is mediocre.

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