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Calavar

2,780 karma · joined August 23, 2021

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Calavar··on Jared Kushner Hacked Phone Reveals Secret Negotiations, Millions in Transactions
So Kushner's phone was hacked around the same time as Hunter Biden's laptop? Why has the latter captured the media so much more then the former?
Calavar··on Triplet of 'ghostly' galaxies hints at what dark matter is and isn't
The ordinary matter that gets tangled up is interstellar dust clouds, not stars and planets.
Calavar··on Wine ported to OpenBSD
What are some GNU coreutil extensions that you find you can't live without?
Calavar··on OpenAI fires three safety researchers for "mishandling research information"
The use of LLMs to make automatic or semi-automatic decisions on firing weapons. This is already happening [1, 2, 3] and has already led to weapons being delpoyed erroneously against civilian targets [1, 3]. It's easy to imagine it happening again on a larger scale, maybe involving nuclear weapons at some point in the future.

[1] https://gizmodo.com/pentagon-investigators-say-overreliance-...

[2] https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-polit...

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/24/world/europe/russia-drone...

Calavar··on Things that apparently cause cancer
Establishing a correlation is only a starting point. After that there is an entire field of statistics called causal inference that is devoted to establishing causality using a variety of tools.

The strength of correlation is NOT the only useful metric and should not be mistaken for more rigorous statistical analysis regarding causality.

Calavar··on Show HN: Yantra – an LALR(1) parser generator for C++
> A hand-rolled recursive descent parser can say something like "missing semicolon after return statement" because the code knows exactly what construct it's in.

> A generated parser's error is usually derived mechanically from the state machine, "expected one of: X, Y, Z, got W", which is correct but generic.

You are not describing the difference between hand-written and generated but rather top down vs. bottom up.

There may be some confusion here because hand-written parsers are almost always recursive decent (a form of top down), while the most popular parser generators (yacc, bison) are bottom up. However hand-written bottom up parsers do exist (Pratt parsing, recursive ascent), as do top down parser generators (ANTLR, Coco/R, Chumksy). Chumsky in particular gives pretty decent error messages out of the box.

Bottom up parsers can parse a larger set of languages than top down parsers, but the tradeoff is you don't know what you are parsing until you successfully reduce the rule (unlike top down parsers). This is why errors in bottom up parsers often lack comments on structure/context like "after return statement" and can only give a list of which alternative symbols would have been valid.

Calavar··on The darker side of being a doctor
> What am I missing?

Several things.

First, private practice docs see patients with very good employer provided insurance, but residents are largely seeing patients that private practices wont see - patients who are far too medically complex to fit into a 10 minute slot and who also have particularly stingy insurance.

So as opposed to a private practice doc who is seeing 30 patients per day and billing an a average of $250 to $300 per patient (certainly not $1000 - that is unrealistic in my experience), a resident is seeing more like 10 to 15 patients per day (30 minute slots) and billing less than $100 per patient.

Second, residents have to be supervised. You have not included the salary of the physicians supervising them in your calculation.

Third, and I have mentioned this many times before on HN, training is limited by chiefly by the number of training sites that can offer quality training. For example, most hospitals will not see a single case of Guillan-Barre in a single year. Would you want to be treated by a nuerologist who trained at such a hospital? This is why neurology training is generally limited to places with a high volume of neurologic cases that would be considered rare at the average hospital, and these hospitals can only accommodate so many residents. Even for general medicine, you probably do not want to be treated by a doctor who trained at a hospital where any case that passed a certain complexity was transferred out to a bigger center.

Calavar··on The darker side of being a doctor
General practitioners make more like 250k on average. 150k for general practitioners working in academics, but not overall.
Calavar··on What happened to the Snowden archive
I don't think Zelenskyy is a saint - far from it.

However this is one of the weakest possible grievances you could raise because Putin also released rapists and murderers from prison to raise manpower, most famously during the spring 2023 Bakhmut offensive. There is no moral highground on that point.

Actually, this is actually a near universal issue with Russian grievances against Ukraine. Virtually any grievance that Russia can claim against Ukraine, Ukraine can claim that exact grievance back at equal or greater measure.

Calavar··on What happened to the Snowden archive
This is a classic Russian perspective on the war - that Ukraine is a gang of neo-Nazis that are dead set on eliminating Russian speakers from Ukraine by force. Russians will further claim that this gang of Russophobic neo-Nazis is led by Zelenskyy, a Jewish man who speaks Russian as his mother tongue and Ukrainian as a second language.

The absurdity of this claim should be self evident.

Calavar··on .name Termination
> Early termination of a domain registration does not impact the life cycle of the domain, as the domain can still go through the various stages of a standard life cycle.

According to ICANN cutting the life cycle short doesn't have any effect on the life cycle?

ICANN corruption is at the level of FIFA corruption.

Calavar··on We are rebuilding Monica
An absolute doddle assuming you have an absolutely excellent test suite. Otherwise on any nontrivial codebase you will still have regressions that make it to production and you will waste your time squashing bugs rather than writing new features.
Calavar··on SQLite as a Document Database (2020)
It's a MongoDBism. The MongoDB community used document to mean the nonrelational equivalent of a row in a relational database. But over time there was definitional shift, and now it means a JSON blob, even if that blob is in a relational database.
Calavar··on AI boosted homework scores, then exam scores dropped: study
I am confused as to how this is an argument for a single source of truth. It seems like you've presented an argument for the opposite. If there were a single source of truth, there would be no point in seeking a second opinion - it would be the same as the first. If the first opinion was correct, excellent. But if the first opinion was incorrect (and no AI model is correct 100% of the time), then you're straight out of luck.
Calavar··on RTX 2080 Ti Memory Upgrade to 22 GB
SoftRam. Raymond Chen wrote a great technical analysis on what it actually did: https://devblogs.microsoft.com/oldnewthing/20211111-00/?p=10...
Calavar··on How we measured AI writing across arXiv, and where the measurement breaks
> There are a finite number of words and a finite way of combining them within an academic setting/field which means that we can't build a perfect classifier with just text.

Maybe for very short phrases, but otherwise I disagree. Phrasing very quickly runs into a combinatorial explosion. In the words of Noam Chomsky, "Virtually every sentence that a person utters or understands is a brand-new combination of words, appearing for the first time in the history of the universe."

In my opinion, the difficulty in LLM/human text discrimination isn't that a person might coincidentally write exactly the same text as an LLM would, but rather that 1) LLMs aren't hard locked to a single phrasing (so this is a tougher problem than matching to a single static document, e.g. plagiarism detection) and 2) text has relatively low information density, so you need quite a bit of it to gather enough data to run a statistical test with a reasonably narrow confidence interval.

Calavar··on NYC may require landlords and realtors to disclose the use of AI in listings
> They'll almost certainly spend more time and money on the process than is ever collected if this ever happens.

The point of regulation isn't for the state to turn a profit. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that regulations that drive a monetary profit for the state are generally bad because they create a perverse incentive. For example, municipal governments adversely affect traffic flow by lowering speed limits because those lower speed limits generate more ticket revenue.

Calavar··on Do Babies Dream of Baby Sheep?
Similar situation. I have no doubt that a large fraction of my childhood memories are fabricated, but there were a few that I kept to myself until I was over the age of 30 and were later confirmed by a parent or aunt or uncle.

There's also the phenomenon of having a memory of a memory. At age 10, I had a very solid recollection of my life at ages 5 to 6 (not so much of age 4). Now all I remember is that I used to remember a lot more than I do know.

Calavar··on Epidurals are a miracle technology
This gets said a lot and it kind of irks me. (I am a physician.)

US software devs also make 2x what their European colleagues do, but that never gets called out as bloat. Plus US software devs make that 2x pay without taking our additional loans for medical school at the rate of $75k per year or doing years of low pay residency where their salary doesn’t give them the means to pay off those loans.

Calavar··on The Coming Loop
I would be more willing to believe you only used Claude for minor editing tasks if you disclosed your usage of Claude upfront.
Calavar··on French physicist and media star loses doctorate after plagiarism investigation
The value of a PhD thesis is the personal intellectual growth you get from putting it together. The end product isn't really the point.

There's a lot to be said about publishing in academia being broken and how nearly all the value comes from 10% of publications, while the rest are garbage spewed out for reasons orthogonal to the advancement knowledge. However, IMHO, none of that really applies to PhD theses.

Calavar··on I admire Fabrice Bellard. He is almost certainly a better overall programmer
To call out The Tribe as hypocritical, you first need The Tribe to have a consensus opinion. Agentic coding in particular has been very polarizing both on HN and in the developer community at large - there is no consensus opinion.
Calavar··on Where Did Earth Get Its Oceans? Maybe It Made Them Itself
Octopuses are smart, but I've yet to see anything that suggests they are smarter than dolphins or whales.
Calavar··on Where Did Earth Get Its Oceans? Maybe It Made Them Itself
Brains are resource hungry, especially oxygen hungry. Earth's air is orders of magnitude richer in oxygen molecules than its water. This likely made it easier for intelligence to develop on land. It's worth noting that the smartest aquatic animals are air breathing mammals that spent much of their evolutionary history on land before returning to water.
Calavar··on Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post
Gates famously came from a rich family, but Bezos did too - he used hundreds of thousands of dollars in investments from his immediate family members to get Amazon off the ground. Maybe 1 to 2% of Americans would be able draw that much from their family members if they were to launch a startup. If we define "bootstrapped" wealth as starting from an economic background within one standard deviation of the national average, then he doesn't count.
Calavar··on Bricks and Minifigs Parts Ways with Franchise Owners
> While fact investigation continues, BAM’s current state of its investigation has uncovered significant evidence of gross negligence in how the store was previously operated by the prior owner

Verbal diarrhea. Excessive passive tense and vagueries to dilute blame (who is the "prior" owner here - Johnson or the woman before they've been trying to scapegoat?) and to top it off multiple grammatical errors in a single sentence.

I can't believe they would let this draft hit the website in its current form this in the midst of what could be an existential crisis for there company.

Calavar··on Gaussian Point Splatting
I believe they mean GPU threads. Plenty of cuda files in their repository.
Calavar··on Green card seekers must leave U.S. to apply, Trump administration says
Your sarcasm is misplaced because yes, this has unironically been true for large chunks of Latin American history.

- Argentinians in particular are over 60% of Italian descent.

- The richest man in Mexico was born to Lebanese immigrants.

- The chief military leader of the Chilean war of independence was born to an Irish immigrant.

- Peru had a president who was born to Japanese immigrants.

These countries have all, at various times, had an influx of overseas immigrants whose birthright citizen children rose to high stations in society.

Calavar··on Green card seekers must leave U.S. to apply, Trump administration says
If you're looking for international precedent, this is an old vs. new world issue. Birthright citizenship is rare in the old world, but it is the default for the Americas. Canada, most of Latin America, and a decent part of the Caribbean have birthright citizenship.
Calavar··on Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI
I did look up numbers before I made that claim:

From Yahoo Finance

GME Jan 1, 2016: $7.09, $5.49 adjusted (accounting for dividend disbursements)

GME Jan 1, 2026: $20.09

266% or 365% return depending on how you count dividends. 365% for GME vs. 306% for S&P 500 over the same period (also using adjusted for dividend numbers).

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