376 karma · joined August 5, 2016
I will be boring now and say that Cloud services will continue to expand, it's effectively a tax on doing work on the internet and start-ups love using cloud, the idea of maintaining your own servers is considered silly unless their is some particular reason to. I expect to see growth of 20% yoy in that sector for the top 3 players. Azure, GCP and AWS.
So how do I make money out of this scenario?
I can't remember who said it, but I definitely subscribe to the idea that cloud providers are essentially a tax on businesses that use the internet to drive their business.That makes CF attractive.
My feeling is that the risk that will affect it in the long run are macro: global downturns, over reliance on a specific sector, regulation, freezing out of markets due to unfair competition from local players and spikes in energy costs (curious why this wasn't mentioned in the S-1 specifically)
They also have no outlined plan for the capital they will raise, this may be a good sign, no bold bets, just keep the marketing spend going and achieve greater scale.
It's getting harder and harder to judge if something is a good bet these days. Nobody is actually making a profit, the dual stock structure is troublesome, and the access to capital feels too easy. Ir frustrates me that it's impossible (for a mere mortal with €500 a year to invest) to get in at an early stage when you can watch the value rise and feel a connection with the company.
Pretty sure Bill Gates did something similar at the end of the dot-com boom, Google have tried other wide area internet solutions like Loon, Facebook has a similar internet.org project and now Musk.