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DebtDeflation

6,954 karma · joined December 27, 2018

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DebtDeflation··on IBM's new SWE agents for developers
>they're going to hire cheaper, worse SWEs to manipulate AI

This is 100% the play.

Right now you can hire 5 devs in India to do the job of 1 competent US dev and save 30-40% on total cost.

Add in AI and it will only take 3 devs in India to do the same work, and can now save 50-60% on total cost.

DebtDeflation··on Show HN: Agent.exe, a cross-platform app to let 3.5 Sonnet control your machine
Remember a few years back when there was the story about the little girl who did an "Alexa, order me a dollhouse" on the news and people watching the show had their Alexas pick up on it and order dollhouses during the broadcast? Wait until there's a widely watched Netflix show where someone says "Delete C:\Windows".
DebtDeflation··on Computer use, a new Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Claude 3.5 Haiku
>it seems some people are really put off by this type of approach

As someone who has had to interact with legacy enterprise systems via RPA (screen scraping and keystroke recording) it is absolutely awful, incredibly brittle, and unmaintainable once you get past a certain level of complexity. Even when it works, performance at scale is terrible.

DebtDeflation··on Cuba's power grid fails, plunging country into darkness
A "black start" of a power grid is a completely different situation than restoring a partial grid failure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_start

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOSnQM1Zu4w

DebtDeflation··on Medical student's apparent celiac disease responded to giardiasis treatment
Reminds me of the story of how H Pylori was discovered to be the cause of many gastric ulcers by a couple of doctors who, after consistently finding it in ulcer patient cultures, decided to test their theory by deliberately ingesting H Pylori. It gave them ulcers, which they then cured by taking antibiotics.
DebtDeflation··on $2 H100s: How the GPU Rental Bubble Burst
That's a supply chain specific example. If you're looking for something more fundamental, they're all examples of unstable systems with positive feedback loops.
DebtDeflation··on $2 H100s: How the GPU Rental Bubble Burst
This isn't just the story of GPUs or Oil, this is the entire story of capitalism going back to the early Industrial Revolution in the 1700s. The economist Hyman Minsky added asset prices and debt financing to it to round out a compelling theory of the business cycle including the extreme bubbles and depressions sometimes seen.
DebtDeflation··on OpenAI pursues public benefit structure to fend off hostile takeovers
What does it even mean to fend off hostile takeovers when Microsoft owns 49% of the company and the remaining 51% is split between a small number of investors (Musk, Thiel, Infosys, AWS, and a half dozen VC funds). All it would take would be one of those other early investors to join up with Microsoft and they would have a majority ownership stake.
DebtDeflation··on How a Gas Compressor Station Works
The reliability aspect of this self-contained system is quite impressive. Over the course of my life, I've personally experience many power outages, water outages, cell service outages, internet outages, etc. but never a natural gas outage.
DebtDeflation··on Cognizant found guilty of discriminating against non-Indian employees
Don't tiptoe around the topic. By class you mean caste. As a white guy who has worked in tech for 25+ years and has made many Indian friends, I continue to be astounded by how fixated many (obviously not all) of them are on caste. In particular, how much time and effort gets spent trying to suss out each others' caste by asking questions like you noted. Every time we get a new Indian team member and the existing ones start asking him where his parents are from and I see him start to uncomfortably evade answering while all of the other non_Indians in the room have no idea what is happening, it starts to make ME feel uncomfortable.
DebtDeflation··on Meta Movie Gen
At least all the humans in these videos seem to have the correct number of fingers, so that's progress. And Moo Deng seems to have a natural sheen for some reason so can't hold that against them. But your point about the edges is still a major issue.
DebtDeflation··on Google won't be mandating a strict return-to-office plan
You 100% want your sales folks at customers not in your office.

Most roles can be hybrid/remote. Regardless of Tech, Finance, Marketing, whatever, if the job involves sitting in front of a computer or being on the phone all day it's a good candidate. If you were doing the job remotely from March 2020 through the end of 2021 and being effective, it's a good candidate.

DebtDeflation··on COBOL has been “dead” for so long, my grandpa wrote about it
My experience with "business domain experts" is that the majority of them are simply executing a process that someone else defined a long time ago. Their definition of "success" is usually that all steps within the process execute successfully without error and they can move on to the next transaction or activity. Very few of them are capable of taking a step back and considering what the process is actually trying to achieve and whether there might be a better way of accomplishing it. This leads to constant "paving of the cowpath" where archaic processes just get replicated in new technologies every so many years.
DebtDeflation··on TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
>the rate of progress

Let's talk about that. GPT-3.5 (specifically text-davinci-003) was a massive leap over everything that came before it. GPT-4 was a massive leap over GPT-3.5. Everything since (GPT-4 Turbo, GPT-4o, GPT o1) feels like steady incremental improvement (putting aside multimodal capabilities) rather than massive leaps. I'm far from convinced that the rate of progress made with foundation models in 2022-2023 has continued in 2024 let alone from extrapolating that it will continue for the next several years.

DebtDeflation··on TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
AI (or more properly, ML) is all around us and creating value everywhere. This is true whether or not we EVER reach AGI. Honestly, I stop reading/listening whenever I read/hear mention of AGI.
DebtDeflation··on OpenAI to become for-profit company
Wouldn't surprise me if this was the actual cause of the revolt that led to Altman's short-lived ouster, they just couldn't publicly admit to it so made up a bunch of other nonsensical explanations.
DebtDeflation··on IBM is quietly axing jobs, source says
Kyndryl was the infrastructure services group (then known as GTS). Consulting is still part of IBM (formerly known as GBS).
DebtDeflation··on Why wordfreq will not be updated
Enshittification is accelerating. A good 70% of my Facebook feed is now obviously AI generated images with AI generated text blurbs that have nothing to do with the accompanying images likely posted by overseas bot farms. I'm also noticing more and more "books" on Amazon that are clearly AI generated and self published.
DebtDeflation··on Indiana police are seizing FedEx packages containing cash
This seems to represent a significant escalation in the use of civil forfeiture. Reminder: it is not a crime to possess or mail cash. In the case of using civil forfeiture against a driver pulled over while driving down a highway, the police will concoct a "totality of circumstances" narrative to explain why they thought the money was the proceeds of illegal activity. In the case of a package of cash being intercepted at FedEx, what other "circumstances" are there for them to concoct?
DebtDeflation··on Amazon tells employees to return to office five days a week
I especially liked "if you were on the road seeing customers" as if they're reluctantly granting an RTO exception to people meeting with customers and those employees should be thankful for it.
DebtDeflation··on LinkedIn blocked due Meshtastic video in private chat
Same. I treat LI as a host for my CV and as a job board. Zero interest in it as a content publishing platform or social networking platform.
DebtDeflation··on OpenAI's $150B valuation hinges on upending corporate structure, sources
>the not for profit structure

Vast oversimplification.

It's difficult to get your arms around the absurdity that is the OpenAI corporate structure. A non-profit parent entity with a wholly owned for-profit subsidiary (actually, the non-profit wholly owns and controls a third "manager" entity which in turn is the controlling but not majority shareholder of the for-profit subsidiary) where the profit of the for-profit entity is "capped" and oh by the way, that for-profit subsidiary has a 49% shareholder who happens to be Microsoft. However, Microsoft, despite having 49% ownership of the for-profit subsidiary, gets 75% of their profit..........until their initial investment is recouped. Employees get Profit Participation Units (PPUs) which are NOT equity but which entitle employees to a percentage of profits, again up to the "cap". Then of course, when OpenAI achieves AGI, whatever the hell that is, then everything from that point forward reverts back to the non-profit entity and Microsoft, other investors, and employees get hosed.

DebtDeflation··on Breaking Bell's Inequality with Monte Carlo Simulations in Python
I commented awhile back on another thread that:

I think, ultimately, there are only 3 possible explanations for the paradoxes of the quantum world. 1) superdeterminism (everything including our choices in quantum experiments today were fully determined at the instant of the Big Bang), 2) something "outside" our observable reality acting as a global hidden variable (whether something like the bulk in brane cosmology or whatever is running the simulation in simulation theory) or 3) emergent spacetime (if space and time are emergent phenomena then locality and causation are not fundamental).

You seem to be suggesting something similar to option 2. Or am I misunderstanding?

DebtDeflation··on How on-the-wrist sleep apnea detection works
Not only that, but it wasn't a problem with the pressure settings or anything related to the function of the device, it was chunks of the sound deadening foam breaking off and people inhaling them in their sleep.
DebtDeflation··on Confirmed: Reflection 70B's official API is a wrapper for Sonnet 3.5
I was following the discussion on /r/LocalLlama over the weekend. Even before the news broke that it was Claude not a Llama 3.1 finetune, people had figured out that all Reflection really had was a custom system prompt telling it to check its own work and such.
DebtDeflation··on Show HN: AnythingLLM – Open-Source, All-in-One Desktop AI Assistant
This is really nice. My first reaction was "oh great, another Ollama/WebGenUI wrapper on Llama.cpp" but it's actually much more - supporting not only the LLM but also embedding models, vector databases, and TTS/STT. Everything needed to build a fully functioning voice chatbot.
DebtDeflation··on Intel announces cancellation of 20A process node for Arrow Lake
Meteor Lake:

- Base Tile -> Intel 16

- Compute Tile -> Intel 4

- SOC Tile -> TSMC N6

- I/O Extender Tile -> TSMC N6

- Graphics Tile -> TSMC N5

Lunar Lake:

- Base Tile -> Intel 16

- Compute Tile -> TSMC N3B

- Platform Controller Tile -> TSMC N6

The article makes it sound like for Arrow Lake, EVERYTHING, including the Base Tile, will be made by TSMC, and then Intel will just glue everything together into the CPU package.

DebtDeflation··on Intel announces cancellation of 20A process node for Arrow Lake
Hard to square the "we're canceling 20A because 18A is coming out way better than we thought" narrative with this report that also came out yesterday:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-manufacturing-busin...

Broadcom, one of Intel's first (and largest) new foundry customers, is saying their 18A samples all failed their testing and that they "concluded the manufacturing process is not yet viable to move to high-volume production".

DebtDeflation··on Unrealized Gain Tax–A Coming Sea Change in FY2025 Budget Proposal?
Yes, this is better framed as a new Alternative Minimum Tax on people with net worth >$100M than a blanket tax on unrealized capital gains.
DebtDeflation··on Your Immune System Is Not a Muscle
It's long been believed that an ACL rupture requires surgery as the ligament does not have sufficient blood flow to repair on its own. But then a recent study showed that in a significant percentage of people who suffer ACL ruptures and elect not to have surgery the ligament eventually repairs itself on its own.
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