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DelaneyM

2,262 karma · joined August 26, 2015

https://www.linkedin.com/in/delaneymanders
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DelaneyM··on The Buy and Hold Mindset
It's a bit of an aside in the post (which I otherwise agree with), but dollar-cost averaging such as:

> If you decide to invest $100,000 into the stock market because you agree with my reasoning in this post, then it would make a lot more sense to invest $10,000 a month over the next ten months than invest all of the $100,000 this month. (Quote from article.)

That doesn't actually make a lot more sense, and that is not the argument for dollar-cost averaging.

Assuming you're investing in a single equity/portfolio, then at the end of that ten month period you will have an effective entry price for the entire lot either way. Either that price is the value it's at _now_, or that price is the weighted average of ten entry prices.

One thing we know, or at least which we're assuming when we choose to invest, is that over the long term prices go up. So unless you have outside knowledge or asymmetric insight suggesting prices will in fact go down, it makes no sense to DCA into the market. And if you do think prices will go down before they go up, then you should hold the entire amount back until you no longer believe the asset is likely to decline.

Dollar-cost averaging is not an argument to buy slowly when you already have money, it is a reassurance to keep investing when process go down and not to hold any money back when investing money you're receiving on a regular schedule (like a paycheque).

Ironically (and amusingly) DCA is also an entry method into a position when you're willing to accept lesser theoretical returns to avoid FOMO but are feeling timid, which is definitely on-brand for a VC.

DelaneyM··on I'm Peter Roberts, immigration attorney who does work for YC and startups. AMA
Thank you!
DelaneyM··on I'm Peter Roberts, immigration attorney who does work for YC and startups. AMA
Hi Peter!

I'm considering work for a US company on an O1 visa, but I hope to spend the majority of the time in my home country and make monthly trips to the US. I have no desire to acquire permanent residency.

I'm happy to be tax-resident while employed and have a mailing/residential address in the US, and I know it's a bit of a pain crossing the border under a visa, but is there a minimum "days in country" requirement to maintain O1 status, either contiguous or per annum? Or any other reason I wouldn't be able to use an O1 in this way?

DelaneyM··on Ask HN: What are examples of companies dying due to many people quitting?
I will echo this and share some context.

The biggest challenge I've had is that trade schools and certifications are inconsistent, so it's not easy to vet candidates; a lot of hiring is intra-island, requiring significant up-front investment in people without knowing that they'll work out; and equipment and regulations (especially electrical) are highly variable, making it hard for a crew to deliver consistent quality.

That context gives a lot of room for crews and contractors to take advantage of inexperienced project managers and investors, and since the corrupt teams aren't brought back they tend to be the ones which are available for the next gig. When you find a great team you treasure them and even find work to keep them busy and happy between projects.

It's actually a remarkably similar dynamic to H1B engineer mills in the US. Many H1B engineers are brilliant, the best of the world looking for a challenge in America. But many are pawns in outsourcing meat markets.

DelaneyM··on The YC Summer 2022 Batch
This is a stat I'd love to see.
DelaneyM··on Handwritten thank you notes increase sales
Individualized insights and personal attention increases sales.
DelaneyM··on Design the next iPhone
Am I the only one who opened the tool and thought: "this, this is perfect, add nothing!"?

Why isn't there a phone yet with no ports or power plugs of any kind (wireless charging and software power/reset), flush rear camera, hidden front camera?

It feels like that's the inevitable end of the current evolutionary tree, and all the technology is there and reasonably economical.

DelaneyM··on [dead]
Not strictly true in this case - an essential factor in the success of a venture-backed startup is the ability to secure a next round of funding.

This exacerbates biases significantly, because you're not only trying to select for success, but also for next-round fundability. So it makes perfect sense to say "I think you're a great founder with a great idea and fantastic prototype. _I'm_ not prejudiced, but I think other VCs are too biased for you to be successful, so I won't invest."

I've heard this multiple times personally, to the point that I've been advised to bring in a more traditional CTO and take a VPEng/CSO role.

Systemic inefficiencies like this one usually require regulatory or systemic assistance to reach a new, more profitable, equilibrium.

DelaneyM··on How do palm trees survive hurricanes? (2017)
Absolutely true. We have a reef about 200m offshore that's doing the heavy lifting blocking waves for us, though it's at risk to reef death (SCTLD - Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease).
DelaneyM··on How do palm trees survive hurricanes? (2017)
In this case I laugh to myself and ask my lawyers to reply.

It's a bit more nuanced than I make it sound (https://www.ogierproperty.ky/publications/public-access-righ...), but it's hard to make the argument that I've intentionally extended my property to block the beach when the original property lines are maintained and the trees doing the work are 20 years old.

Due to erosion of artificial beaches and our access laws, my neighbors are actually losing a few feet of private land every year. I'm just kicking back and literally yelling at them to get off my backyard lawn.

I can't wait for their reaction when I get my chicken coop...

DelaneyM··on How do palm trees survive hurricanes? (2017)
We're not going to lose our land from the edges, if that's what you're asking. It's actually causing a bit of an issue right now because our land has been retained while the beach has disappeared, so it's no longer possible to walk the beach except at lowest tide. slOne of my neighbors has requested (with a legal letter) that we remove our trees and landscape in a continuous beach.
DelaneyM··on How do palm trees survive hurricanes? (2017)
We have a dense line of palm trees protecting our shoreline on our property (South Caribbean), and ours is the only house on a long coast which hasn't lost metres of land to oceans over the past decade. (Our neighbours have prioritised private beaches, I like my farmland.) It's easily visible on Google Maps satellite view, but I'm not sure I want to post a link to my house...

Because they're all that's holding the property together their root systems are exposed on the seaward side, and they are _massive_. I couldn't build a stronger retaining wall. I wish this article shared some pictures of a palm root system, it's really the most impressive part. Together with seagrape shrubs I think I'm actually reclaiming a few inches a year. I also have some great footage of palm trees bent over nearly 90° in a cat-3 from a few years back.

One thing not mentioned here is the risk under storms of coconuts. In a tropical storm, palm trees become coconut catapults when the trunks whip around at high speed and under tension. We've lost multiple 1"-thick concrete roof tiles to coconut strikes, as well smashing (but not breaching) a cat-3 hurricane door.

Here for the Caribbean content!

DelaneyM··on MicroStrategy’s Saylor Drops CEO Role as Company Posts $1B Loss
It's going to be interesting to see if the inheritor of the role still wants MicroStrategy to serve as a defacto Bitcoin holding company, or if he or she will divest or diversify.

I'm not sure that it'll directly impact the markets, since at their scale I assume it'd be an OTC transaction, but it'll be a strong signal either way.

DelaneyM··on Bluetooth remains an 'unusually painful' technology after two decades
I used to serve on a BT SIG, and the current state of things does not surprise me. I was both blown away by the technical expertise of some of the contributors, from whom I learned a ton about platform philosophy & standards that I still use today; and deeply disappointed by the role PMs & BizDev played in proactively breaking compatibility just to preserve the option to someday take advantage of the standard for short-term profit.

Really interesting though, if you're early in your career and have the option to participate in a standards body I strongly recommend it.

DelaneyM··on Heresy
I can name all kinds of sexist statements I've heard first-hand in just the past few months (none, I might add, which incurred any consequence). I bet you can too. Sexism, as an example of an "x-ism", is endemic in tech. If you must have an example let's just go with the Damore memo.

You're the one saying that there are some sacred truths which cannot be uttered on pain of ostracism. Citation required, because I can't prove or demonstrate a negative. I would direct you to "Basic Logic", an introductory textbook by Raymond J. McCall.

DelaneyM··on Heresy
Nice hypothetical, can you come up with a real example of such a brave and controversial statement? Because I'm not sure this actually exists, most of the tube "x-ism" is also "being an asshole for no reason".
DelaneyM··on Heresy
Paul has said a lot of smart things, but this essay is hard to read.

Paul seems to be complaining here that since becoming relevant/influential he's no longer "allowed" to have "x-ist" beliefs.

I mean, yeah... This is how the world works?

When your job is digging holes alone in a field (or the office/academic equivalent), you can vomit whatever insane nonsense you want without consequence, because it doesn't affect anyone or anything. You don't matter.

When your position gives you implicit or explicit power over a group of employees, founders, culture, etc; and that group either includes X's or people who care about X's, being "x-ist" has a material and unfair impact on those people. Asserting unrepentantly an "x-ist" opinion makes you _bad at that job_, and in fine capitalist tradition a better individual is found to replace you.

Also I flat-out don't buy his assertion that it's impossible to be forgiven. Louis C.K. just won a Grammy, Chappelle just signed four more comedy specials for Netflix, who are these people forever out in the cold for speaking hard truths?

Every time this comes up I wonder what these forbidden opinions he has which he dares not utter are.

DelaneyM··on Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
As in my post, assuming this reaches a "negotiated" settlement there are going to be two important values: the original purchase price (OPP), and the fair market value (FMV).

If Twitter "wins", they get Elon to pay the full market value. Now, they don't actually want Elon to be involved, so if Elon pays the difference between FMV and OPP (~$24B) that's essentially the same as buying then divesting with fewer steps.

If Elon "wins", he gets out paying nothing.

So the range is 0 to $24B.

Elon has a terrible case here, so the best negotiating tactic he has is being a disruptive asshole so TWTR just wants it done with (this is playing to his strengths). I'm also making a big assumption about the FMV, which could easily rebound a bit by EOY. With those factors pulling it down from 24, I'm expecting in the 10-15 range, and if I had to guess I'd say $12.5B.

Pick your own inputs for your own estimate, but this is the deal structure.

DelaneyM··on Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
Very little, actually. The Delaware Chancery Court is arguably the US's most efficient judicial institution. They don't mess around.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's concluded by EOY. If Elon wanted to drag it out he'd have waited the full 6mo review period before making his intent official, and Twitter clearly wants it done with.

The only way I see this dragging out is if shareholder lawsuits from Elon's filing "mistakes" or SEC actions (for any of a dozen good reasons when Elon's involved) muddy the waters.

DelaneyM··on Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
For anyone thinking he can pay the 1B$ termination fee and walk away, it's not that simple.

The 1B$ is a "reverse breakup" fee, and applies when an outside force (like SEC or financing) prevents the deal. That 1B$ has nothing to do with any choices on either side, and is unlikely to factor into this process.

At this point they're clearly going to trial, and it's not unlikely that the cost to Elon will be somewhere in the neighborhood of the difference between the fair current market value (~20B$?) and the purchase price (~44B$).

My guess is it'll end up being ~10-15B$.

DelaneyM··on We’re discontinuing the Stablegains service
Plenty of countries have currencies which have a fixed exchange with USD, including my own (1 KYD = 1.2 USD).

It just takes a shit-tonne of capital, and it helps to have a functioning internal economy and flexibility to be able to defend against malicious agents.

I suspect there are other legal issues with creating an alternative currency in the us though, which is why these aren't currencies but securities. Which is still fine! A tethered coin is conceptually _similar_ to a 0-yield bond.

Presenting it as being "safe" without it actually being so is the problem here.

DelaneyM··on Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?
> Consumer staples -> consumer poisons.

When you're sampling the top-10 you get a biased set - "sin" stocks usually face increased consolidation pressure (certainly true for PM, MO, KO). If you expand your view to a full breakdown, a consumer staples ETF broadly represents "stuff people buy at supermarkets".

ETFs based on indices do not have opinions or intelligent design, they attempt to accurately represent a well-defined sector or thesis. A lot of people buy a lot of unhealthy stuff, so that shows up here.

If this is important to you, could I suggest screened indices (https://www.ishares.com/us/products/investment-goals#/funds?...) or a social impact fund (https://www.ishares.com/us/products/286007/)?

DelaneyM··on Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?
"Recession" is a bit ambiguous. To identify winners and losers in any economic climate you need to consider the specific factors at play, and the winners of previous "recessions" may or may not be winners in the next.

In this case _my_ assessment is that we're facing a prolonged period of high inflation partially fueled by factors which can't be mitigated by Fed actions (COVID lockdowns in China, global transportation backlogs, European conflict, food shortages) and perpetuated by high household savings levels. I don't think we're going to face significant slowdown of consumer spending this year.

In that economic environment, consumer staples which do their own production and have the ability to quickly respond to inflation are favoured. I'm in a sector ETF for this.

I also believe profitable tech which is ad-funded is at an advantage - anything where prices are set by auction and ROI is demonstrable/visible is golden, as are industries like cloud computing which have natural deflationary economics. This implies Meta/Goog/MSFT (and in this I'm betting on specific tactics and am choosing specific companies).

Those are my bets, you should form your own hypothesis and extrapolate appropriately.

Also note that these are systemic factors, but will always be dominated by idiosyncratic realities. Individual stocks are only loosely correlated with sector movement, if you think you have a winner or asymmetric knowledge about a specific company don't let larger trends dissuade you (or vice versa).

Finally, a corollary to the above: when you invest on macro/sector trends, do so through sector/strategy ETFs. If you're investing on asymmetric knowledge or insight, invest in specific equities. Combine the two strategies at your peril.

DelaneyM··on Is Rust Web Yet?
This content, while still accurate (Rust is Web-ready, and all the frameworks listed are excellent!), is missing out a few credible and recent options.

In particular I want to shout out for Axum (https://github.com/tokio-rs/axum), from the folks who brought us Tokio. I've been building with it for the past few weeks and have enjoyed every minute.

I started with Warp, but ended up struggling a bit with middleware. I tried Axum as a web framework wrapper for tower (https://crates.io/crates/tower), and never ended up bothering to reintegrate back into Warp.

DelaneyM··on Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private
Everyone currently holding $TWTR believes that the true value is greater than the current price.

To make a successful hostile bid, you need to pay not just "more than the current price", but "more than the holders of 50% of current shares believe the company to be worth". Usually bidders use analyst price targets to guess at the distribution of holders' internal price targets.

This is what makes it so difficult, and why this bid is very likely to be rejected.

(This is easier to explain with a white board, tbh.)

DelaneyM··on Managers with MBAs are the best at taking money from workers and not much else [pdf]
An undergraduate business degree as a primarily academic pipeline makes some sense, similar to an undergraduate art history or econ degree. I really grew to appreciate how much real and important research is happening under the "business" umbrella (organizational behaviour, marketing, leadership, etc.).

Other than that though I totally agree, I have no idea what market value an undergraduate business degree offers.

DelaneyM··on Managers with MBAs are the best at taking money from workers and not much else [pdf]
IMO the alumni network is massively overrated. It might be different in services or finance, but in tech I've gotten way more mileage out of academic and open source communities.

I do agree that there's a heavy power law on program value, but I attribute it more to the scarcity of great professors and the peer learning advantage of highly selective programs.

Your ycombinator analogy still applies pretty well actually.

DelaneyM··on Managers with MBAs are the best at taking money from workers and not much else [pdf]
> How has getting your MBA helped you with your career growth (not getting leadership jobs, but actually thriving in them)?

Honestly, the value of my MBA curriculum didn't really kick in until I had a P&L and a 100+ org. And even there, it's less a specific set of skills, and more how the case study method gives you indirect experience and context which would be prohibitively painful to learn the hard way.

When your team or scope grows to very large (1000+ person) sizes, the investment of two years of my time to avoid a single major blunder or focus a bit more efficiently becomes worth every minute invested. There's just so much leverage to fuck up so badly and impact so many people.

DelaneyM··on Managers with MBAs are the best at taking money from workers and not much else [pdf]
I think that framing is one which makes sense (~10yr post-graduate engineering program).

I wouldn't restrict it to just engineers, but I would certainly focus it on early-career managers in any high-skill industry where the transition from IC to organizational leadership is a challenge.

The majority of my class was on the Ivy->Consulting/PE->MBA track, and though many of them were wonderful and well-meaning human beings, that did not prepare them effectively to lead in industry.

DelaneyM··on Managers with MBAs are the best at taking money from workers and not much else [pdf]
I'm not sure what point you're trying to make, but you realize an MBA is an actual academic program and skillset? Just because your Madlib is syntactically correct doesn't mean it makes sense.

If you're trying to say that the material one studies in an MBA program isn't rigorous or relevant then say that.

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