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Futurebot

5,959 karma · joined April 6, 2012

Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/opir
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Futurebot··on What happens when a culture is driven by the need for money to make more money
> the opportunity cost of "not selling out" has skyrocketed to unsustainable levels

That's phrased perfectly, and exactly what I came here to say. For the 'marginal careerist', one with just enough opportunity to get ahead, but not enough to float by (e.g., possessing rich relatives) there isn't an easy choice. Staying ahead of a changing job market, increasing barriers to entry (credentialism and other funnel-narrowing HR filters), ageism, and the knowledge that the tattered safety net isn't going to help them very much if they fall out means they won't necessarily have the luxury of saying 'no' to every dubious opportunity presented to them.

It's no longer just about winning the rat race. For many of today's rats, it's now about staying on the ship at all.

The original article is one of those feel-good articles that I want to agree with. It's earnest and idealistic, and brings up several important points. For those who are able to do what Mr. Kickstarter is able to do (to make those socially responsible choices that maximize for self-interest AND social good [i.e, enlightened self-interest] instead of maximizing for selfishness) that's actually all great and beneficial. I like it. Many of his observations, too, are spot on. His recommendation however, that tells people to 'do that' reveals a lack of perspective on the actual lived experience of many people functioning within the modern reality. Collective action problems can't be solved by individuals, nor by socially conscious companies (as nice as those may be.)

Futurebot··on Q&A with the Black Twitter Engineer Who Left Over Diversity Problems
Recruiting from a limited set of schools is widespread:

https://hbr.org/2015/10/firms-are-wasting-millions-recruitin...

Which leads to the practice turning into a self-reinforcing cycle:

http://www.economist.com/node/21640316

It's a symptom rather than a cause.

Futurebot··on Reconsider
The articles (and books/papers they reference) have copious examples. Here are just a few:

Search Engines Top four market share: 98.5% Major companies: Google: 64.1% Yahoo: 18.0% Microsoft: 13.6%

Arcade, Food & Entertainment Complexes Top four market share: 96.2% Major companies: CEC: 52.2% Dave & Buster’s: 35.0%

Soda Production Top four market share: 93.7% Major companies: The Coca-Cola Company: 41.2% PepsiCo: 33.6% Dr Pepper Snapple Group: 15.4%

Lighting & Bulb Manufacturing Top four market share: 91.9% Major companies: General Electric Company: 32.9% Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV: 31.7% Siemens AG: 27.3%

Major Household Appliance Manufacturing Top four market share: 90.0% Major companies: Whirpool Corporation: 43.8% AB Electrolux: 20.7% General Electric Company: 17.1% LG Electronics: 9.2% Market concentration

Mobile OSes (iOS and Android) are another, even if no one can make money on the software itself anymore.

Banking software (FIS, Fiserv, Jack Henry, and D+H): 96% total

Internet service providers (a few large players, with a smattering of regional ones. Some areas are served only by a single company.)

Wireless providers (AT&T, Sprint, Verizon and T-Mobile) have roughly 80% of the market.

Here's a nice infographic:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/04/the-char...

This is not to say that this applies to every market. There are competitive markets without clear winners (in some of the above cases, the markets are competitive oligopolies - but that doesn't help the "I just want to make a nice living as a small player" idea - you still need to be huge in those cases.) However, with the increase in mass communication, economies of scale, picked low hanging fruit, clustering effects, and concentration of talent/capital/connections, the trend has been towards winner-take-all (either through pure domination, like search, or industry consolidation, like health insurance.) Eking out a living at the margins is possible, but as I stated in the other comment, has its own set of attendant risks.

Futurebot··on Reconsider
I like this post, but we should contextualize it properly, and look at where it doesn't work. Things have developed over the past forty years which don't allow the "start small, stay small" to always be a possibility: the increase in winner-take-all markets and the Superstar effect. We see it everywhere when it comes to today's job markets, and we also see it (and potentially worry about it being the case, and this is critical) in industries themselves. This latter belief means that if you decide to start something, you may need to consider whether you should bother at all if you aren't going to go big.

Is Uber in a winner take all market? If so, they have no choice but to operate the way they do: http://www.vox.com/2014/12/4/7336433/uber-worth-

We see it in regular job markets more generally (where we call it job polarization): http://economics.mit.edu/files/5554

We see it in "art, sports and culture" markets (where we call it the Superstar effect): http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/business/winners-take-all-...

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/09/win...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/business/26excerpt.html

We see it in newspapers:

http://thinkprogress.org/yglesias/2010/09/10/198480/technolo...

We see it in attention more generally (which has second order effects, like everyone use just one or a handful of large platforms(!) and where we call it variations of "winning in the Attention Economy"): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attention_economy

So the choice is sometimes (perhaps even often today) not between "get big" or "stay small/medium", but get big (where big may represent firm size, level of knowledge/skill, fame, or a number of other attributes depending on the area) or "get (almost) nothing." When the distribution of customers/eyeballs/rewards are as lopsided as they are in many areas, the only choice IS "get big or go home."

More:

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2011/12/how_...

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/09/win...

http://prospect.org/article/talent-and-winner-take-all-socie...

I don't knock dhh, and this is one of those posts I actually want to agree with, but it doesn't neatly comport with extant realities. I think even this advice, just like the advice to "get big" needs to be taken very carefully. All of these roads entail risk (obviously), but the choice of big versus small isn't as simple as implied.

Futurebot··on Ask HN: Have you vouched for dead HN submissions?
I've vouched for one story so far.
Futurebot··on The Myth of Welfare’s Corrupting Influence on the Poor
Some studies:

http://econweb.tamu.edu/common/files/workshops/PERC%20Applie...

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387813...

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/cfg...

Articles related to the studies:

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/10/25/240590433/what-...

http://www.economist.com/news/international/21588385-giving-... (direct cash vs CCTs)

http://www.fastcoexist.com/3049642/solving-inequality/how-to...

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/wel...

Futurebot··on The Myth of Welfare’s Corrupting Influence on the Poor
That's because it doesn't work on a large scale. It especially doesn't work during periods of crisis:

http://www.democracyjournal.org/32/the-voluntarism-fantasy.p...

http://articles.latimes.com/2014/mar/30/business/la-fi-hiltz...

http://www.salon.com/2009/03/16/turse/

Futurebot··on The Brutal Ageism of Tech (2014)
Unlike those other areas, which I think can be combatted through cultural change and pressure, ageism is one that I think will remain a great deal more stubborn and resistant to change, and I don't feel that I have anything really useful to suggest other than "be aware of it and try not to be ageist." I could certainly be wrong, and I hope am. I just don't feel particularly hopeful about it. There's a comparable bias I don't think societies will have much luck with, either: "ugliness bias":

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240529702036875045766553...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8765360/Does-be...

I just don't see good ways of fixing that. (There's also "height bias", but I actually think that one might be fixable culturally.)

Edit: I know it seems defeatist, and maybe it is, but it's an area I just don't feel hopeful about.

Futurebot··on The Brutal Ageism of Tech (2014)
I don't think a list of practical tips for dealing with the reality is condoning anything, anymore than telling people to wear a bulletproof vest is condoning getting shot. I've posted stories about ageism previously. I don't think you'll find me 'condoning' it anytime soon. Example:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/27/your-money/unemployed-and-...

I am realistic about it, though. I think it's something that we're going to have a very, very hard time dealing with. More obvious ones - like the ones you've listed - have been hard enough so far, and the struggles around them continue daily. Age? Yeah, that's going to be seriously challenging to combat. I'm all for trying to fight it, I just don't see the likelihood of good results anytime soon.

Futurebot··on The Median Rent for an SF Two-Bedroom Hits $5,000/Month
Yup. Particularly important in the markets where many people actually live/move to/can find jobs (SF, NYC), because they have incredible outliers on the high end.
Futurebot··on The Median Rent for an SF Two-Bedroom Hits $5,000/Month
Zumper/Smartasset has the average at $4650 for a 2 bedroom:

https://smartasset.com/mortgage/what-is-the-cost-of-living-i...

Only marginally less shocking. As for your question, the median is used in questions of affordability (data from StreetEasy, Zillow, Elliman, etc.), rather than the mean.

Futurebot··on The Brutal Ageism of Tech (2014)
A few things about this:

1) This is why it's important to try to make your fortune early. Most won't, but try anyway.

2) Never stop learning. Everyone has to become lifelong learners in this new hyper-competitive economy. Even moreso for those with traditional "disadvantages" like being considered too old. Keep up with trends, keep reading those whitepapers, go back and review the basics every so often (this is a good idea anyway, IMO), learn at least the basics of the new whiz-bang thing that comes out (even if it's just the "hello world" equivalent), and generally keep yourself "interview ready."

3) Physical appearance matters. They may not be able to ask your age, but they can look at you, and they'll form an opinion whether it's conscious or subconscious. Though many find it distasteful, it is the reality. That means consider carefully whether smoking/alcohol/other intoxicants that affect your physical appearance are worth it. It also behooves you to keep a regular exercise schedule. Cosmetic surgery is also an option; there are many tells for age you can fix: eyelid and eyebrow droop, under-eye and various other facial lines, hanging chin. Hair dye and grafts are also worth considering, as a receded hairline and whites/grays are obvious tells.

4) It probably goes without saying to keep up your professional network.

5) Another distasteful one, but perhaps worth thinking about: if you're someone who is in the age bracket that is often considered "very likely to have a family", but you don't (especially if you don't ever plan to), state it. Signaling that you don't have large, difficult-to-discharge obligations could give you the edge you need. You may get mentally re-bracketed. I haven't tried this one, since I'm not yet in the bracket nor do I appear to be, but I would probably do so if I was.

6) Companies that are truly hard up for good people (and not just the "we can't hire (at the wage we wish to pay)" companies) will just have to be more flexible. Maybe they already are.

Futurebot··on Google employee lives in 16' box truck to avoid Bay Area rents
See also this one about container living in Oakland: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/us/live-in-boxes-in-oaklan...
Futurebot··on MIT's free online classes can now lead to MicroMaster's degree
If this is successful, perhaps they'd consider expanding this to a Bachelor's (MicroBachelors). It's a step in the right direction, at least. I've gone through a lot of the MIT OCW videos and notes, and by and large, the quality is very high. Promising.
Futurebot··on Stephen Hawking Says We Should Really Be Scared of Capitalism, Not Robots
The articles reference studies and books which have the data. See work by Ford, Autor, Acemoglu, Autor, Brynjolfsson. If you want to read just one thing which has plenty of data, read the book "Race against the machine" - they talk all about the studies used to come to their conclusions:

http://raceagainstthemachine.com/

Futurebot··on Stephen Hawking Says We Should Really Be Scared of Capitalism, Not Robots
Yes, there is evidence, but you don't need AI, per se. Just automation in its various forms (robots, software, etc.):

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-tec...

http://www.npr.org/2011/11/03/141949820/how-technology-is-el...

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html?_r=0

Automation is moving up the skill / knowledge chain.

Futurebot··on The pace of major breakthroughs has declined
It's worth noting that Peter Thiel has also advanced a version of this argument (progress stagnant since 1970): http://www.technologyreview.com/qa/530901/technology-stalled...

along with Tyler Cowen (low hanging fruit has been picked, specifically in the US): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Stagnation

Futurebot··on A Culture Against Dropouts, Deviants and Troubled Young Adults
I'd add to that list "couldn't go on the path in the first place", too, as there are plenty of people who fall into that bucket. I wish there were more public acknowledgement of the sentiments in your last paragraph. Refreshing comment.
Futurebot··on Are global wages about to turn?
In the developed world, I think we'll be seeing the hybrid approach for the next few decades at least, but yes, we will get past that to your fully automated vision. Also, the non-evenly distributed future effect means we'll likely see that vision in SF in, let's say, 2100, but won't see it in Flint, MI until 2150. It is coming, though.
Futurebot··on Are global wages about to turn?
If one is in a non-routine job that requires creativity, the human touch, synthesizing (currently) difficult concepts together, etc. then the job market is going to be great for a while. Software developers (particularly, as several recent papers indicate) with great communication skills and high emotional intelligence, "designers" (used very broadly - could be anything from art design to system design), marketers, artists of various kinds (though this will be subject to the superstar effect), politicians, certain kinds of teachers (I'm including everything from the creators of tutorials to Sal Khan-types) and various types of business owners/managers will be in good shape for a while. Anyone in these categories willing to become non-stop learn-for-lifers (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/business/to-stay-relevant-...) will likely be OK. So yes, your negotiating position may actually improve a great deal.

If one is in an a "routine" job (as defined by Autor), one should be thinking very carefully about the next few decades. Upskilling, becoming autodidacts, and most importantly agitating for political change will be things that this group needs to engage in (the former two to stay relevant; the latter to keep eating.)

Futurebot··on Are global wages about to turn?
Right. Part of what's missed is that we don't need great GAI to get rid of lots of jobs; weak "AI" / deep learning / related automation techniques get us a long way there. We have existing examples in law document review, article topic summarization, etc.

Another thing which is often missed is how complementarity may play out for certain jobs: it's NOT going to necessarily be "program / robot replaces every job X", but instead "program / robot allows one person to do the job previously done by 50." You can still have massive unemployment without getting rid of every worker doing a certain job (and their job may change more to be a machine guide / manager / error corrector.)

An example I see all the time now is in supermarkets. You have self-checkout lanes that are overseen by one person. It used to be 5 lanes staffed by people. Now you only need one to intervene when something goes wrong. 5 workers have become 1 without eliminating the job "register person" completely. Instead, they've changed into "auto register checkout manager" while everyone else got the ax.

Futurebot··on Are global wages about to turn?
McAfee and Brynjolfsson deal with why the robot revolution will likely be unlike previous tech revolutions in their books. Here are a couple of articles on it:

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-tec...

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/10/why-work...

Futurebot··on The Best Job Candidates Don't Always Have College Degrees
It can be done, but it's much harder, at least in my experience. You're 100% right about being an outlier. People who go this route are going to work much harder as their similarly skilled, but degreed colleagues at everything (proving themselves, earning respect, getting raises, having people even listen to them.) Anyone who can go without accruing a mountain of debt should do so unless you're naturally incredibly talented or have Zuck-level support.

My personal experience: https://medium.com/@opirmusic/why-software-developers-should...

Futurebot··on Single Women: There Aren't Enough College-Educated Men Out There
The article addresses this, and it's not the case. Men are just as picky in this area. See my other comment:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10299844

Futurebot··on Single Women: There Aren't Enough College-Educated Men Out There
The article addresses this. Men are just as picky in this area:

"It's not just women, both men and women are unlikely to date and marry across those lines. It just doesn't matter for the men because the pool of educated women is so vast that their own classism doesn't really punish them. But being unwilling to consider working-class guys affects women in ways that it doesn't affect men. It's totally unfair, and I get that, but it's not like only the women are choosy and the men are all open-minded."

That's what assortative mating is all about:

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21595972-how-sex...

Futurebot··on Declining Student Resilience: A Serious Problem for Colleges
Some of those statements might be hyperbolic to a degree, but it's really a question of degree, not the overall trends. My personal characterization was 'The choice is more between "member of various elite / professional jobs" and "Starbucks"', which I don't think is all that hyperbolic if you look at the actual "hollowing out" data from Autor, Stiglitz, et al.

If you read only one link, make it this one: http://economics.mit.edu/files/5554 - the study is one of the universally acknowledged and well-respected around. As far as the happiness quotient for the broad swathes, I think the polls do contradict you:

http://www.pollingreport.com/right.htm

Edit: here's one from the AEI, a right-learning source you linked to (Tyler Cowen, a popular right-libertarian blogger's book "Average is Over" deals with this as well. Definitely worth a read if you haven't):

https://www.aei.org/publication/more-evidence-average-is-ove...

Futurebot··on Airbnb and San Francisco
Same here. Life-long native New Yorker, and I've never seen anything like it. My building has many AirBnB guests (my floor alone has 2 apartments that have different guests all the time.) Overall it doesn't impact my personal experience, since the neighborhood I live in is fairly noisy already (LES) and I don't really care unless they blast music.

That all said, I think there are things that AirBnB can do to mitigate all this: standards enforcement division. A 24-hour service where you call them up, make your complaint, and they send over some big scary people to knock on the offender's door and ask them to "turn it down" or "pick up their garbage." Local government offices and the landlords themselves can't respond quickly enough (the former can't/won't send someone there at 2AM and it'd be pretty tough to get the latter to run over to your apartment for this sort of thing.) Basically AirBnB police. There are steps that can be taken that don't involve the local government or housing authority; I think AirBnB would be wise to take them.

Futurebot··on Airbnb and San Francisco
That's a great way to think about it. You can drop popular (eventually it gets to expensive that you reach a new equilibrium and people stop coming!), but it's hard to say at what point in the future that actually happens.
Futurebot··on Declining Student Resilience: A Serious Problem for Colleges
Try these, the data in the other direction is very strong:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/11/opinion/the-downward-ramp....

http://economics.mit.edu/files/5554

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2011/04/27/how-do-yo...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/28/ho...

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/09/the-holl...

Not just a US phenomenon either. Here's a UK perspective:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9000951/the-missing-midd...

Futurebot··on Declining Student Resilience: A Serious Problem for Colleges
I'm definitely not addressing people scared of mice or bad words, those things may well be explained by helicoptering as I stated in my first sentence; I am addressing "hypersensitivity" to bad grades, which I think is rational.
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