Hacker News Reader

Gwypaason Why BMI is flawed – and how to redefine obesity

Arnold Schwarzenegger hade an obese BMI in competition trim. Outliers does not invalidate a generic measure, they are outliers.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/05/Arnold_S...

Gwypaason Why BMI is flawed – and how to redefine obesity

Is not this common knowledge? It works for population measures and mostly everyone not exercising at a very high level. In other words, 9x% percent of the population can not excuse their BMI by "muscle mass", it is simply due to a sedentary lifestyle and the BMI is a correct estimate.

Gwypaason Feds find "substantial'' safety issue at SC nuclear plant

> The risks of nuclear power going critical are far smaller than the benefits from not having to use coal for example.

That is a strawman argument. Coal has generally been uneconomical since the advent of combined cycle gas turbines where gas infrastructure exists. Today renewables are vastly undercutting both.

Trying to frame it as a choice between nuclear and coal is only made because nuclear does not stack up against the real competition in 2023.

> I forget what a life saved is worth in engineering terms. Something like 1 or 10 million per capita I think. $200 billion in cleanup only needs to save ~200-2,000 lives to be justified.

Or we just build power generation without those third party risks. I do not understand why you are trying to frame a $200 billion cleanup bill as "nothing to see, move along sheeple!".

> I'm cool with the idea that they should fix their pipe. I'm not cool with it being treated like a big deal without pretty solid evidence that the deal is big.

Almost all nuclear accidents final hole in the Swiss cheese is some sort of loss of cooling. When the backup power fails due to negligent maintenance that is a big deal.

Fukushima led to us building stockpiles of backup generators together with the necessary electric connections allowing us us to fly them in with helicopters and connect them if the primary ones fail. Saying that failure in the primary ones is "fine, nothing to see" is sticking your head in the sand.

Gwypaason Feds find "substantial'' safety issue at SC nuclear plant

> You're imagining an act of god that does precisely so much damage that the difference between catastrophic failure and a non-event is this one cracked pipe. That was, please note, detected and fixed before failure.

Take the severe Forsmark incident in 2006 in Sweden. Many of the "defense in depth" layers had been accidentally removed through freak occurrences and upgrades. Thus loss of cooling became almost a certainty. That is why you test and do not accept half fixes to placate the operators profit margin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forsmark_Nuclear_Power_Plant#J...

> And the downside of that risk coming to fruition is a 0-death to near-0-death crisis (which is much better than whatever this precise external shock will cause).

And a at least $200B bill to cleanup the mess in Fukushimas case. Lets remove the Price Anderson Act so they have to pay the true cost for their risk?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93Anderson_Nuclear...

Gwypaason Westinghouse/Bechtel Consortium Agreement: First Nuclear Power Plant in Poland

You can, have a read.

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9837910

Gwypaason iCloud Drive silently deletes your content

Which is why I treat my computer as a thin client unless it is in the Dropbox folder.

For example, every single line of code is simply a scratchpad if I don't sync it to a remote git instance.

Gwypaason iCloud Drive silently deletes your content

Or Dropbox and choose "online only".

For my off site backup I have a computer which syncs everything to local storage. I guess I don't defend against malicious intent or "delete it all" software bugs but that tends to end up as en exercise in insanity.

Gwypaason Westinghouse/Bechtel Consortium Agreement: First Nuclear Power Plant in Poland

You have to differentiate between paid off nuclear plants nearing end of life and new built ones.

Take for example Hinkley Point C, that costs €0.15 per kWh for the consumers. How does that compare?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_powe...

Gwypaason Westinghouse/Bechtel Consortium Agreement: First Nuclear Power Plant in Poland

> “Nuclear reactor design has evolved, but key additional safety features have not been included at Barakah, with the chief executive of Areva, the French nuclear cooperation, comparing the Barakah reactor design to, quote, ‘a car without airbags and seatbelts,’” he said. “So the Barakah reactor design may prove inadequate defence against significant radiation release under what’s known as ‘fault conditions’; in other words, an accidental or deliberate airplane crash or military attack.

> “And what’s particularly worrying is the lack of a core catcher, which in the event of a failure of the emergency reactor core systems, would retain the nuclear fuel once it breached the reactor pressure vessel. On top of that, concrete cracking in all four reactor containment buildings hasn’t helped, nor has installation of faulty pilot-operated safety relief valves.”

https://www.power-technology.com/features/divided-opinion-in...

Gwypaason Westinghouse/Bechtel Consortium Agreement: First Nuclear Power Plant in Poland

https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost...

> The same argument according to which solar panels and such will become cheaper as demand increases (because of economies of scale and technical improvements) also applies to nuclear power plants.

The French nuclear scale-up famously did negative learning by doing. Economics of scale is not something you can assume. This is from before Flamanvile 3 started, that is even more negative learning.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014...

Gwypaason Westinghouse/Bechtel Consortium Agreement: First Nuclear Power Plant in Poland

> I'm not really clear what this means? All power plants require financing for their construction cost which is pretty definitionally the market cost of construction.

It is hard to finance a plant when you will on average sell the power at a loss. The money has to come from somewhere.

Gwypaason Westinghouse/Bechtel Consortium Agreement: First Nuclear Power Plant in Poland

> Not to mention nuclear is also the safest technology out there so far (read up stats on the deaths per each technology, per megawatt)

Let's remove all laws where the public bear the cost of accidents then? Should be fine since it's the safest!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93Anderson_Nuclear...

That is for the U.S., but equivalent laws exist in all countries with nuclear power plants.

Gwypaason Westinghouse/Bechtel Consortium Agreement: First Nuclear Power Plant in Poland

With reduced safety features that would not be acceptable in the west. Then sprinkle middle eastern style guest workers and a dictatorship on top. Will not be repeated in the west.

Gwypaason Westinghouse/Bechtel Consortium Agreement: First Nuclear Power Plant in Poland

Is there any public information about the financing?

The recent nuclear plants constructed in the west requires something like $5-15B above the market price in subsidies, of course depending on size. Would be interesting to know how they intend to solve that.

Gwypaason Volvo to cease production of diesel cars in a few months

Of course nothing is forever. But why can't we celebrate the win that BEVs are?

Gwypaason Why you might want async in your project

In my experience async drop is a nice to have, not a must. Futures::block_on is good enough for the happy path in low stakes scenarios.

When dealing with async operations they tend to end up at a network boundary and thus the service enters distributed system land.

Now the async drop also has to handle the server crashing before the drop happens and at any time when it happens. Keeping that in mind trying to actually drop something becomes quite meaningless since you need to handle all other cases either way.

Gwypaason U.S. Air Force selects fast microreactor for nuclear power pilot

Through a SPAC after their application to license their design was denied by the NRC, and the responses seem very immature. Does not inspire confidence.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/nrc-denies-oklo-powers-plan...

Gwypaason Young climate activist tells Greenpeace to drop ‘old-fashioned’ anti-nuclear

Locking up capital for 70 to 80 years? Do you know about the time value of money? [1] What you are proposing is FDR and Churchill sitting at the Casablanca Conference at the height of the second world war in 1943 [2] planning out economic investments that will be returned in 2023. Does that sound reasonable?

Likewise, a renewable plant that makes the money back in ~25 years allows the investor to reconsider the investment decision and better optimize the capital allocation two times while the ones building nuclear are still paying for the nuclear plant. The renewable owner could after 50 years decide to invest in nuclear. I wonder which is more efficient?

[1]: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/082703.asp

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casablanca_Conference

Gwypaason Young climate activist tells Greenpeace to drop ‘old-fashioned’ anti-nuclear

In Sweden the grid connection for off-shore wind farms have been said to be in the 15-30% range of total cost.

On the other hand, the question is where the grid ends and a power plant begins. Previously when the grid owners and power generators were the the same utility the question did not matter, grids were built to accommodate the locations of nuclear plants.

Countries have gone in different directions on this. In the UK the off-shore wind farm builders are responsible for their grid connections while in Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands the grid operator pays for it.

Gwypaason Young climate activist tells Greenpeace to drop ‘old-fashioned’ anti-nuclear

I agree the stance is old-fashioned, but nuclear is not the solution in 2023. We correctly attempted it in the 2000s, it did not deliver, lets learn from that experience. Who would finance another Flamanville [1] or Vogtle [2] today?

The research is clear, every cent invested in nuclear power prolongs the climate crisis. [3]

> On both costs and speed, renewable energy sources beat nuclear. Every euro invested in new nuclear plants thus delays decarbonization compared to investments in renewable power. In a decarbonizing world, delays increase CO2 emissions.

The recently nationalized debt laden French nuclear behemoth EDF can not even finance new nuclear plants without direct state aid. [4]

> (Montel) French utility EDF is unable to self-finance the construction of new nuclear reactors due to its EUR 65bn debt and so needs state funding, CEO Luc Remont told a hearing of France’s lower house on Wednesday.

Meanwhile Germany are raking in tens of billions by simply selling the right to build off-shore wind. [5]

> Germany’s first dynamic bidding process, covering four offshore wind zones with a combined capacity of 7 GW, has generated EUR 12.6 billion in proceeds, according to the Federal Network Agency.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plan...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Pla...

[3]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254243512...

[4]: https://www.montelnews.com/news/1511372/french-state-must-fu...

[5]: https://www.offshorewind.biz/2023/07/12/breaking-germany-rak...

Gwypaason $528M Antarctic icebreaker too big to fit under Tasman bridge to refuel

Bunker barges/tankers are standard everwhere, although not underway but docked or at anchor.

Docking at a certain place simply to bunker just doesn't happen on larger vessels where utilization factor is everything.

https://www.marineinsight.com/guidelines/bunkering-is-danger...

Gwypaason Growing share of Americans favor more nuclear power

Exactly as I said. Nuclear was the right choice in the 70s. At that time the climate as a question did not exist, it was only about energy independence.

Today the equivalent choice when rebuilding our energy systems are renewables.

Case in point, already in 2021 renewables delivered more TWh globally per year than all existing nuclear [1], we are still early in the buildout. The tender in 2024/25 for German north sea wind auctions will be ~10 GW. [2]

[1]: https://imgur.com/JYMNAWR

[2]: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insight...

Gwypaason Growing share of Americans favor more nuclear power

Such a success story that their nuclear company, EDF, had to be nationalized and is so indebted that they can not finance new nuclear without state aid.

>(Montel) French utility EDF is unable to self-finance the construction of new nuclear reactors due to its EUR 65bn debt and so needs state funding, CEO Luc Remont told a hearing of France’s lower house on Wednesday.

https://www.montelnews.com/news/1511372/french-state-must-fu...

Meanwhile Germany and the US is making billions by auctioning the right to build off-shore wind.

> Germany’s first dynamic bidding process, covering four offshore wind zones with a combined capacity of 7 GW, has generated EUR 12.6 billion in proceeds, according to the Federal Network Agency.

https://www.offshorewind.biz/2023/07/12/breaking-germany-rak...

> U.S. Offshore Wind Power Auction Nets Record $4.37 Billion

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-offshore-wind-power-auction...

I have a hard time seeing France as a success story to emulate today. Choosing nuclear was the right choose to gain energy independence in the 70s, today the equivalent choice are renewables.

Gwypaason July 2023 was the hottest month on record

Or simply build adequate infrastructure.

Why Canadians Can't Bike in the Winter (but Finnish people can)

https://youtu.be/Uhx-26GfCBU

Gwypaason The world’s largest wind turbine has been switched on

I recommend you read the short linked article before making strong statements.

> It would be wrong to assume that rich countries have only achieved this by offshoring manufacturing overseas – which would simply mean that other countries are consuming this energy on their behalf. Consumption-based energy use – which adjusts for the energy used to produce the goods we import and export – has also plateaued or fallen in many countries. We see this clearly in the chart for Sweden.

Gwypaason The world’s largest wind turbine has been switched on

Many advanced economies have decoupled energy use from economic growth.

https://ourworldindata.org/energy-gdp-decoupling

Gwypaason The world’s largest wind turbine has been switched on

Let's stop subsidizing their accident insurance then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93Anderson_Nuclear...

Gwypaason Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

>> After 70 years of trying we haven't built an economic traditional nuclear reactor.

> Are you saying that was a true statement?

As the op, yes. See:

The limited liability vs Fukushima cost of at least $150B.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93Anderson_Nuclear...

And this review of the economics by DIW berlin.

> According to “numerous scientific studies,” none of the world’s more than 600 nuclear power stations have ever been economically viable, and the plants could only be operated for years due to government subsidies, the institute claims.

https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/-nuclear-has-never-b...

Gwypaason Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

After 70 years of trying we haven't built an economic traditional nuclear reactor. Even less a breeder.

It is like saying we have infinite fossil fuels because we can use renewables to create it from water and air. The interesting part of the conversation is the efficient allocation of money and people. In that conversation nuclear power never materialized.

Gwypaason Germany Achieves Record 57.7% Renewable Energy Share for First Half of 2023

> You can see here [1] that on a time frame of 2000 to 2022 Germany is yet to replace reduction of nuclear generation (Kernkraft) with renewables

Which is another misrepresentation of statistics given that we use less electricity today than 20 years ago.

See this page for "all varieties" of the same graphs. Generally coal is on a downward trajectory, except the blip for the Covid years.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-c...