HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

IanDrake

1,788 karma · joined April 25, 2011

submissionscomments
IanDrake··on Federal Reserve balance sheet trends
You can print money indefinitely and not cause inflation as long as there is an equal demand for what you're printing.

USD demand is very high globally and domestically right now. Let's hope that doesn't change over night.

IanDrake··on The plans to reopen the economy are scary
EEE then. That's a virus transmitted by mosquitoes. Malaria was a bad example.
IanDrake··on The plans to reopen the economy are scary
I'm not sure it's a function of money, probably more likely capacity and time to create capacity.
IanDrake··on The plans to reopen the economy are scary
As we enter summer, the question no one is asking is:

Can mosquitoes transmit this virus like they do malaria?

IanDrake··on The plans to reopen the economy are scary
Testing when?

When you have symptoms? Too late.

330 million people testing weekly? Not possible.

There is no realistic way to mass test everyone in a meaningful way.

IanDrake··on Ask HN: Printing'@'Home?
Most people are printing masks frames using house filters for the filter and face shield frames using overhead transparencies for shields.

I'm my area a local maker group has coordinated with the local hospital to print and distribute face shields. We have about 25 makers printing them now.

I would check local maker groups or contact your local hospital to see what they're accepting.

IanDrake··on Stock buybacks are dangerous for the economy
No, its not hugely overvalued. Interest rates are low, where will you get your desired yield?

PE ratios are in the normal range.

How do you justify your position?

What are you comparing it to? RE? RE isn't passive.

IanDrake··on Stock buybacks are dangerous for the economy
Who took on more debt just for stock buyback that is now asking for a bailout?
IanDrake··on US national parks cause public health concern as visitors flood in
Most parks are just outdoor resources and people want to be outdoors.

I think it makes sense for the parks to stay open, but close the visitor centers and any other place people congregate.

IanDrake··on Coronavirus: 18% of U.S. workers have lost jobs or hours, poll finds
>Loosing a fully paying job is never preferable to unemployment in the US.

Is that what I said? No, it's not.

IanDrake··on Stock buybacks are dangerous for the economy
>When companies do these buybacks, they deprive themselves of the liquidity that might help them cope when sales and profits decline in an economic downturn.

No one is depriving themselves of needed liquidity. Liquidity-need is forecasted, as is the expected IRR for the cash on hand if it were re-invested into the company. Ultimately, companies decided share holders got the best return with buybacks.

IanDrake··on Coronavirus: 18% of U.S. workers have lost jobs or hours, poll finds
For many, losing a job maybe preferable so they can collect unemployment.

Edit for what I thought was obvious context:

If you had a full-time job and where forced to go to meager part-time hours, it might be better to just get laid off and collect. I had a friend in this situation. It would have been better for him to have been laid off.

IanDrake··on Funding for Covid-19 Projects
At the point when hospitals run out of ventilators, no one denied a ventilator is going to care about FDA approval.
IanDrake··on A Man Who Saw the Pandemic Coming
And you are the arbitor of how much of something a person needs?

Two people at a grocery store, both with an entire shopping cart full of dried pasta. One has twelve mouths to feed at home, the other lives alone.

How do you police that or distinguish who is selfish?

IanDrake··on A Man Who Saw the Pandemic Coming
Re: down votes. HN isn't a forum for people to disagree and discuss.

It's a hive mind where dissenters are punished via down votes for hurt feelings.

Regarding people being selfish... There is nothing selfish about self preservation. The problem is we have a negative view on "price gouging" which is just economic triage.

There wouldn't be a run on toilet paper if it cost 10x the normal price. It costs you nothing to stock up, so people do.

IanDrake··on How Working-Class Life Is Killing Americans, in Charts
Anyone else read this while counting the logical leaps being made between data and reason without any evidence?

There is no multi-factor analysis being done, only single factor correlations that the authors want so badly to point to evil capitalism as causation.

IanDrake··on Rick Santelli Calls for Infecting Global Population with Coronavirus
Typical Socialist BS. Greedy Capitalist calls for the death of millions. Just read the headline and trust our analysis.

Except Santelli was clearly (but poorly) trying to argue that Coronavirus isn't that big a deal, as we'll all find out eventually. He wasn't actually proposing or "calling" to infect everyone.

He was just saying it will take months for people to realize how small an issue this is and infecting everyone would shortcut that time table, very tongue in cheek.

IanDrake··on Teacher unions urge end of active-shooter drills that traumatize students
As Dave Chappell pointed out, if the shooter is a student, which is frequent, then why give them a road map to destruction.
IanDrake··on The Billion-Dollar Disinformation Campaign to Reelect the President
This article complains about conspiracy theories, yet it's a non-stop conspiracy theory itself.
IanDrake··on Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises
Does the climate change? Of course. Are we doing a good job predicting it and understanding how it works? No. Not even close.

I have a background in financial modeling, using exponentially more observations, in a less chaotic system, with participants betting on the models with real dollars. It makes climate change models look like simplistic toys, which most are.

There is NO consequence of being wrong with a climate model, no shame, and there's a high degree of survivorship bias. Climate models that have been right, have been right for the wrong reasons. Climate models that have been wrong (most) are long forgotten and never discussed. New models come out all the time to hype fears for events that prior models predicted would be happening now (and aren't).

The question isn't does the climate change, the question is do we understand it at all.

IanDrake··on Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises
You're re missing the point. Look at the map, the blue region is the extent in 100 years.

What do you think happens in that 100 years? I assume this would be a near linear progression. That means current waterfront has about 10-20 years, not 100.

IanDrake··on Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises
Obama only ran the country for 8 years, but hfdh434535 knows better.

Real estate is about the closest thing to putting your money where your mouth is as far as climate change goes and the people have spoken - the coasts are still the most valuable and desirable places to live.

IanDrake··on Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises
Well, I don't believe in "consensus" [insert field] science because that's an oxymoron.

If you still believed what was once the consensus, you would believe in some crazy stuff. Science is skeptism of the consensus, not the other way around.

IanDrake··on Wind turbine blades can’t be recycled, so they’re piling up in landfills
I'm glad someone here gets it.
IanDrake··on Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises
In the free market of ideas, no one actually believes this will happen.

Just look at coastal real estate. Buyers and lenders would have to be colossal fools to pay such premiums to be waterfront. Even Obama just plunked down 12M on a waterfront mansion on the low lying island of MV.

IanDrake··on Microsoft shipped a broken DCOM CD-ROM and no-one noticed
Fun story. DCOM was so cool back in the day.
IanDrake··on Wind turbine blades can’t be recycled, so they’re piling up in landfills
So we should live in huts?
IanDrake··on New antiviral treatment made from sugar
I can't tell if you're just trolling me now. Three hundred years ago the world was a completely different place.

We didn't have labor and environmental arbitrage like we do now. One could email IP to someone in China who can mass produce it, with lower quality, lower costs, higher environmental impact and ship it across the Pacific a month later.

300 years ago, if someone stole your windmill design and took it to china, you'd never know.

IanDrake··on FTC to block Edgewell's $1.37B acquisition of razor startup Harry's
Not Gillette. Title is wrong.
IanDrake··on Huge success in business is largely based on luck: new research
The beginning of this article seems to conflate "success" with riding a short term "fad".

Only after you conflate those two, you can equate success with luck.

Once you get out of SV, business success has little to do with fart apps and birds that are angry or have flappy appendages and more to do with skill, knowledge, and hard work.

← PreviousPage 4 of 34Next →