ItsMattyG

does that site have a list of solutions/dates they come out? or do you remove problems once they've been solved?

Yes, of course Eventually prices will go down... But there will be a period where things are much more expensive, based on simple inability to make much more gpus than the current rollouts demand.

And after that period when costs are going up due to gpus replacing workers... All bets are off on terms of what the economy even looks like

hi

that's not me, but hi

painting groups you don't agree with with obviously false descriptors like 'sex cult'

You fall for this stuff? It's obviously not a sex cult

Again, there is a moat based on compute. If the thesis is right, cost of compute will only rise... As it is as you say someone will have it be quite wealthy to host something like Astra with trillions of parameters, but that cost will only rise with demand for serving these frontier models.

To me it seems the opposite. There's a few companies in the world that have enough compute to train and serve frontier models.

As the frontier gets smarter and more useful prices will only go up, as they are set to replace jobs being paid six or seven figures a year - the demand for as much inference on these models for as long as possible will be astronomical, but compute starting in 2030 will not be keeping up.

Eventually prices will fall for assistants but the frontier will be the most profitable thing in the world, and the top companies basically already have oligopolies due to their ridiculously expensive compute investments.

Is this news at this point?

You can basically time your openai releases by if another safety person has quit in protest

I don't see how this will survive the attacker/defender gap as ls get increasingly good at cyber security and finding 0 days... but maybe it's an obscure enough is it doesn't matter?

if you're into litrpg, have you tried the wandering inn? it's not so meaty but it's above almost all other litrpgs in that department and the storytelling is great

eventually it will be pennies, but based on current trends i'd bet value outpaces price decreases for a while once it actually becomes an employee replacement

the demand then will rise and prices will rise in tandem

it is of course possible that 'deep learning hits a wall' and they don't get there, but i wouldn't bet on it

true, and humanity may all be dead due to rogue ai or speciation, so maybe there'd be no humans around to care

say more?

you can't reason about currently because the entire economy will change before collapsing completely - there will be a poor class and a rich class

they won't need their advertising models because they'll have a new oligopoly on ai, and make the money directly from b2b

which yes, will completely destroy the consumer economy and social structures and current forms of governance

sure there will be, people who own the means of production will buy everything, and rule over the peasants

like in the good old days

... the people who are currently paying workers

as ai becomes an actual replacement for workers, costs will rise to what you would pay a worker, and $6T will be easy

it seems fairly obvious to me that once ai becomes as good as a worker, people will pay a workers wages to use it - 24/7, can't quit, can't complain that badly, no lunch breaks

productivity tooling replaces employees

What makes it false?

FWIW, my rationalist friends were warning about Covid before I had heard about it from others, and talking about AI before it was on others radar.

But if you have an AI then all that's needed to implement an api is documentation

For now

Francois'(the creator of ARC-AGI benchmark) whole point was that while they look the same, they're not. Coding is solving a familiar pattern in the same way (and fails when it' s NOT doing that, it just looks like it doesn't happen because it's seen SO MANY patterns in code). But the point of Arc AGI is to make each problem have to generalize in some new ay.

Because it empirically doesn't lead to as good hires as asking about past experiences.

ChatGPT does this. You just click an arrow and it will show you other branches.

Interesting, for me this is only true as long as the AI generated content is worse.

There's some things I really care about the human experience for, but much content it just matters to me if it's a joy to ride.

Eventually models will likely get their creativity by:

1. Interacting with the randomness of the world

and

2. Thinking a lot, going in loops and thought loops and seeing what they discover.

I don't expect them to need humans forever.

This is literally what the whole article was about. Not only does the quote itself contain that context "and the lego group", but the very next paragraph is "And then… nothing. The Tintin votes dried up, and Lego rejected both his fan-favorite Avatar and Polar Express ideas. The company never says why it rejects an Ideas submission, only that deciding factors include everything from “playability” and “brand fit” to the difficulties in licensing another company’s IP."

oh hmm, the penguin/giraffe one when I first saw it I was like "that looks like an upside down penguin, where's the giraffe?" Whereas others I immediately saw what it was trying to be.