I do agree that those rules should be transparent and not "unwritten" though.
15 karma · joined September 12, 2012
I do agree that those rules should be transparent and not "unwritten" though.
To argue they were being irrational, you'd have to show that it was irrational for them to believe in the myth that this trend would never end, which is tantamount to expecting markets to not experience manias or bubbles.
I guess my issue is what you mean by that. When people see Bitcoin's price shoot through the ceiling, I totally agree that it attracts them to speculating on the currency, further exacerbating the increase in price, causing an exponential shape.
It is not clear that its price increase would attract people to using Bitcoin as a currency and not speculation though. I consistently hear about the importance of a currency having a relatively stable value so I wonder if large, rapid price changes actually discourage using Bitcoin as an actual currency while encouraging its use for speculation (or at least not encouraging its use as a currency).
It would not make sense for anything that has independent utilitarian value to have anything but a growth rate that is correlated with that value. It would seem that exponential deviations from such a growth rate could only be due to speculative mania. If people are only or mostly buying Bitcoin because its price has increased, hoping for a further price increase, then there is only so high the price can go before collapsing.
Rereading your comment, maybe we're actually saying the same thing here.
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