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JamilD

2,258 karma · joined February 22, 2014

ex-Apple, AI/ML @ Stanford.

jamild.com ml.jamild.com github.com/jamil

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[ my public key: https://keybase.io/jamil; my proof: https://keybase.io/jamil/sigs/TncaBlYMwuyi1L_kBlmolqSOi8g0q89LiTWiIO2ZU3c ]

submissionscomments
JamilD··on Saudi Arabia adopts the Gregorian calendar
I usually read (or listen to) The Economist linearly, so interesting titles make sense when I don't need random access.

But these cute titles don't really work on the internet, where most people stumble upon Economist articles from a different context.

JamilD··on Google wants driverless cars, but do we?
> The types of accidents we’ll face in this automated future, in which these cars are meant to run together in proximity at high speed, may be fewer, but they’ll be new, different, unpredictable and, on occasion, larger and more grisly than the ones we know today.

There's absolutely no evidence to support this, is there? How would self-driving cars result in larger and more grisly accidents?

JamilD··on The neo-Nazi murder trial revealing Germany's darkest secrets
It's not mentioned in the article, but there's an excellent Netflix-produced, German-language dramatization of these events called "NSU German History X" [0]. It has three 90 minute long episodes; one from the perspective of the perpetrators, one from the victims', and one from the investigators'.

[0] https://www.netflix.com/title/80104622

JamilD··on Gimli Glider
I've watched this show since I was a kid — I think it's one of the reasons I went into engineering. It makes you think about the different reasons that air accidents happen, and illustrates that there's almost never a single attributable cause.

What seems initially just like pilot error may also be due also to workplace conditions, bad training, a lack of communication, or fatigue — a chain of events and circumstances that culminates in the accident. It's fascinating.

JamilD··on Was Anne Frank’s family betrayed? After 72 years, historians have a new theory
Whether you agree with intervention or not, "let them blow each other up" is not contributing to the discussion.

Civilians don't have any say in the matter, and most of them want the same things we do — peace and physical security. That's it.

JamilD··on What is a Y Combinator?
For those (like me) that prefer learning through talks and demonstrations, Jim Wierich gave an incredible talk on the Y Combinator at RubyConf 2012.

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FITJMJjASUs

Code: https://github.com/jimweirich/presentation_ynot

JamilD··on The Linux Credit Card
0.3%?! It'd far more effective to get a 2% cash back rewards card like the Double Cash, and donate the money to the Linux Foundation.
JamilD··on Hans Rosling doesn’t consider himself an optimist or pessimist but ‘possibilist’
I find that people tend to look for a singular cause; a trail of evidence that leads to only one correct conclusion. It's an attitude exploited by crime dramas, TV shows, literature, etc.

Reality, of course, is far more complex, and I think Rosling is trying to play to those biases in human nature in order to influence people. Pointing to one inherent "truth" in the data is far more effective in convincing people than "it's complicated".

JamilD··on George W. Bush is smarter than you (2013)
Straight from the article:

This is a hard one, for liberals only. Do you assume that he is unintelligent because he made policy choices with which you disagree? If so, your logic may be backwards. “I disagree with choice X that President Bush made. No intelligent person could conclude X, therefore President Bush is unintelligent.” Might it be possible that an intelligent, thoughtful conservative with different values and priorities than your own might have reached a different conclusion than you? Do you really think your policy views derive only from your intellect?

JamilD··on Chinese warship stole US underwater drone
The drone was operating in international waters. And despite the name, only a small part of the South China Sea is in China's Exclusive Economic Zone.

Much of the sea is closer to other countries (like the Philippines and Vietnam), but China lays unilateral claim to many of the uninhabited islands.

edit: A map, for reference: http://www.abc.net.au/cm/lb/5464160/data/south-china-sea-map...

JamilD··on Tom Wheeler Resigns from the FCC
There's a reason it hasn't happened yet; it's not some sort of deterministic process. Many people worked hard to stop it from happening, and a new FCC chairman could change the status quo.
JamilD··on Uber ordered to stop self-driving vehicle service in San Francisco
The ban wasn't because of the car running the red light (though the incident may have contributed to it), it's because Uber didn't apply for a permit to test autonomous vehicles in California. Tesla, by the way, received a permit.
JamilD··on Uber ordered to stop self-driving vehicle service in San Francisco
> The state should be doing all it can to support, grow, and encourage this innovation.

I don't think anyone disagrees. California's been very proactive in promoting and allowing self-driving car trials.

But you can't allow just any driverless car on the road without ensuring that it's safe — that's why there's a permit process for it. This isn't just another app — people's lives are at stake here.

JamilD··on Uber ordered to stop self-driving vehicle service in San Francisco
Updated Uber statement:

"This incident was due to human error. This is why we believe so much in making the roads safer by building self-driving Ubers. This vehicle was not part of the pilot and was not carrying customers. The driver involved has been suspended while we continue to investigate."

https://techcrunch.com/2016/12/14/uber-looking-into-incident...

JamilD··on Uber ordered to stop self-driving vehicle service in San Francisco
I want self-driving cars to happen as quickly as possible, but Uber seems like they were extremely reckless and negligent here. Why not apply for a permit and stay on the safe side?

And with at least two reported incidents of these cars running red lights, it seems like driver training and attentiveness was lacking. If the software wasn't ready, fine, but you have to be aware of that and train your drivers to be 100% attentive to their surroundings, especially since it's the first day of real, commercial trials.

JamilD··on Alaska Air Acquires Virgin America
Previous discussion, when the merger was initially announced, here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11421894
JamilD··on 'Clean your desk': My Amazon interview experience
> Oh and in this case it wasn't a question of frugality, but scaling. Too many interns to interview, not enough time.

I've interviewed for Google and Apple internships and the process has been extremely pleasant, with the interviewers happy to give their time. With Apple, I got to meet the entire team and spend time with them. I've heard similar stories about the Microsoft interview process (I mean, they even fly you out to Redmond).

What makes Amazon incapable of interviewing their interns adequately?

JamilD··on Integrating Microsoft and LinkedIn
• LinkedIn notifications within the Windows action center

• Enabling members drafting résumés in Word to update their profiles, and discover and apply to jobs on LinkedIn

• Extending the reach of Sponsored Content across Microsoft properties

I can't help but feel that the direction they're taking this in will be horrible for the Microsoft experience. It looks like they're trying to monetize LinkedIn integration in Windows…

JamilD··on Apple to Start Publishing AI Research
BusinessInsider and Mac blogs tend to be less reputable sources than Bloomberg, whose articles regularly make it to the HN front page. Might have contributed to this particular submission's success.
JamilD··on Apple to Start Publishing AI Research
Is numbers of papers published a good metric for determining the contribution of a company to public research?
JamilD··on [dead]
I tend to agree with this article; I don't think Donald Trump, a New Yorker and a businessman, is a racist.

However, the people who he surrounds himself with, are. This article makes no mention of Steve Bannon, who suggested too many Asian CEOs is a threat to civic society [0], and ran a website that peddled anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim conspiracy theories. Come January 20th, he'll be the chief strategist for the nation's highest office.

Nor does it mention Kris Kobach, the Kansas Secretary of State who has ties to white nationalist groups [1]. He's now on Trump's transition team.

I don't doubt Trump's intentions, but it's looking like the alt-right is using his campaign (and will use his administration) for their own ends.

[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-bannon-flattered...

[1] https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2015/11/02/what%E2%80%99...

JamilD··on T-Mobile will pay a $48M fine for throttling ‘unlimited data’ plans
Organic is [0], natural isn't.

[0] https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/organic/labeling

JamilD··on Air India Taking Advantage of Tailwinds
Many airlines offer a Premium Economy product which offers wide seats and more legroom (think domestic First Class). They don't tend to sell well; Turkish Airlines is in fact removing them from their aircraft [0] — and many major airlines don't even have a Premium Economy cabin (United, Delta, Emirates, Etihad, Qatar, et al).

Most people just aren't willing to pay for wider, more spacious seats.

[0] https://www.runwaygirlnetwork.com/2016/05/23/losing-comfort-...

JamilD··on Google Flights will now tell you when fares will increase
Sabre's REST APIs are actually pretty great; they're well-documented and fairly easy to use. The SOAP APIs [0], which contain the real meat (inventory details, PNR lookup, etc) are another story…

[0] https://developer.sabre.com/docs/read/SOAP_APIs

JamilD··on GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa
Banks generally do better when people have more money, not less. They'll get more deposits, and hopefully more loans that can actually be paid back.
JamilD··on The Impact of Index Investing: A Follow-Up
The previous post on the same blog debunks this. http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/05/passive/
JamilD··on The Impact of Index Investing: A Follow-Up
He's not claiming it's new information or something only he knows. In fact he attributes most of his knowledge to Graham.

Read some of the other comments in this thread and you'll see it's not common knowledge either.

JamilD··on The Impact of Index Investing: A Follow-Up
Index funds expose you to essentially the entire market; it's the sum of thousands of tiny pieces of businesses all across America. We're not putting all our eggs in one basket, rather, we're all distributing them across many.

If you can pick an investment that will weather an economic downturn, and still provide a decent return — let me know, because I want to get in on it ;)

JamilD··on The Impact of Index Investing: A Follow-Up
> In a bad/recession year, this could be largely negative. They are not hedged against business cycle downturns.

This was the argument made by Protege Partners, when betting against Buffett in the great "index funds vs hedge funds" long bet [0]. It turns out that the index funds fared better — and they're mainly used for long-term investment, where the short-term macroeconomic ebbs don't have an impact on the overall return.

Of course the variance on the active side will be higher, but there are as many losers as they are winners, and much of it is due to simple randomness. Unless you're confident that you know more than other investors (for many people, including myself, we probably don't [1]), index funds, or "hugely diversified portfolios" are the way to go. Basically, no hedge fund is making those 200% returns you're speaking of, and even if some fund were, empirically it's more likely to be just noise. Look at the result so far of Buffett's bet on hedge funds. It speaks volumes.

[0] http://longbets.org/362/

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effec...

JamilD··on The Impact of Index Investing: A Follow-Up
I was at the Berkshire meeting this past weekend, and Buffett gave a nice (if simplified) explanation of investing in index funds over active investment, as it pertains to hedge funds, hiring analysts, etc.

An excerpt from the transcript [0] follows:

What I’d like you to do is for a moment, imagine that in this room, you people own all of America. All the stocks in America are owned by this group. You are the Berkshire 18,000 (or whatever it is) that have somehow managed to accumulate all the wealth in the country. Let’s assume we just divide it down the middle. On one side, we put half the people…half of all the investment capital in the world, and that capital is what a certain presidential candidate might call ‘low energy’. In fact, they have no energy at all. They buy half of everything that exists in the investment world – 50 percent – everyone on this side. Now half of it is owned by these ‘low energy’ people. They don’t look at stock prices. They don’t turn on business channels. They don’t read the Wall Street Journal. They don’t do anything. They are a slovenly group that just sits for year after year, owning half of America’s business. What’s the result going to be? The result is going to be exactly average as all American business does because they own half of all of it. They have no expenses – nothing.

What’s going to happen with the other half? The other half are what we call the ‘hyperactives’. The hyperactives’ gross result is also going to be half, right? The whole has to be the sum of the parts. This group, by definition, can’t change from its half of the ultimate investment results. This half is going to have the same gross results. They’re going to have the same results as the ‘no energy’ people but they’re also going to have terrific expenses because they’re all going to be moving around, hiring hedge funds, hiring consultants, and paying lots of commissions, et cetera. As a group, that half has to do worse than this half does. The people who don’t do anything have to do better than the people that are trying to do better. It’s simple.

[0] https://www.biznews.com/global-investing/2016/05/02/berkshir...

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