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JumpCrisscross

193,268 karma · joined May 31, 2011

Ski. Fly. Growth equity VC.
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JumpCrisscross··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
> They tried to hold him accountable for things he did in his first term and four years wasn’t long enough

This was mostly Merrick Garland being a muppet.

JumpCrisscross··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
> Do you really believe in this?

I do. Guantanamo wasn't killing American citizens.

JumpCrisscross··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
> Didn't Okta had several major hacking incidents over the last decade as well?

Yes [1].

[1] https://www.flyingpenguin.com/a-simple-list-of-the-many-okta...

JumpCrisscross··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
> He’s never achieved a majority vote in any election

Trump won the popular vote in 2024 [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidentia...

JumpCrisscross··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
> Which has absolutely nothing to do with what I'm pointing out

You had no hard numbers. I’m providing them. How aren’t you following that connection?

JumpCrisscross··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
Biden absolutely signed a series of inflationary bills into law and then didn’t do anything to mitigate it. (The initial Covid relief kept us out o a depression.)

Biden’s inflation peaked worse than anything Trump has done. But telling voters you’re only slapping them after the other guy punched them is about as effective as you’d think. (There is zero sense of urgency from the White House around this either.)

JumpCrisscross··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
> what the other guy said which was misleading at best

Current inflation is a fuckup [1]. Pretending it doesn’t exist is a fuckup. They aren’t unprecedented fuckups. But they are consistently punished.

Inflation is exceptionally high right now for a developed country. It’s feeding into cost-of-living issues that are animating voters.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ 7.2 annualized in September

JumpCrisscross··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
> Covid spending took inflation to the moon

Yes. Then the party that did that got trounced. Then nobody learned any lessons.

JumpCrisscross··on Git for the US Code
> Your proposal would replace petty corruption with institutional capture of elections by the legal profession

“Make corruption cases easier to bring” is “institutional capture of elections”? What?

> You can’t trust a jury of 12 people in a handpicked jurisdiction

If your only issue is with the jury pool, don’t give DC special jurisdiction. A Senator from Montana should be tried there.

It also seems like you’ve forgotten about appeals.

> to make such consequential decisions for the whole country

We have an election system that’s corrupted by social media, money and the electoral college. That means smaller groups of unaccountable people already make consequential decisions for the whole country.

The folks on January 6th were idiots. But they believed they were saving their republic. A lot more people, today, believe we’re at a precipice of losing it due to corruption.

So yeah, if not a jury it could be something more extreme. (At a certain point, not today but not la-la land, it needs to be.) A state or district electing corrupt fuckwits endangers us all—the folks pushing for decertifying elections for shits and giggles set the precedent for this anyway.

JumpCrisscross··on New York Times adds more AI features to its Cooking app. Users aren't thrilled
> ingredient substitutions (if they’re good, which is the crucial part!) would be a really useful feature for me

I have the same reaction to this feature as I do to getting any AI-derived writing: I can do that. I can ask my own AI for substitutions. It can do them with more information about my tastes, context and health needs than the Times could ever have.

JumpCrisscross··on New York Times adds more AI features to its Cooking app. Users aren't thrilled
I use AI to adjust recipes and track my nutrients, particularly when I cook for myself. But I choose the model, give it parameters and generally build trust with what it can handle and how to prompt it. (For example, I force it to find a real online recipe from a good source versus making shit up.)

I won’t redo that on every site. And I’m a relatively high-frequency AI user. If I’m irritated by this the median American hates it. If you love AI, the things that are amusing to you, average Americans hate.

JumpCrisscross··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
> Inflation under Trump is half that of when Biden was in

And how did that work out for Biden?

Voters don’t like inflation. Blowing up energy prices by launching a war of choice while shutting down domestic production because windmills isn’t smart policy.

JumpCrisscross··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
Can you search for agents near me?
JumpCrisscross··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
It’s not. It’s because he took inflation to the Moon. If he hadn’t had Hegseth at his side, and hadn’t gone into Iran, he’d probably still be treading water.
JumpCrisscross··on Git for the US Code
> can’t give such an ideologically homogenous group of people that much power over elections and candidates

Agree. We also can’t tolerate the level of blatant corruption we have now.

The solution is something more flexible than we have now, but still with a high bar. The check is the courts. America didn’t fall apart when Bob Menendez went to jail.

> People can’t be trusted to put aside their personal beliefs and value systems and act objectively

We don’t need them to. Prosecutorial discretion means anyone can charged with anything. The test is whether it sticks. (The FBI already has, and has already abused, the powers you’re concerned about.)

Nobody is suggesting prosecutors be allowed to unilaterally jail politicians. If we trust voters to mind misconduct in office we should be able to trust them to read through charges.

JumpCrisscross··on Git for the US Code
> It’s simply the wrong tool for the job

It’s all we’ve got. Hand waving away corruption when we’ve got destabilizing quantities of it today is unsustainable.

> don’t think you can even find a prosecutor’s office and jury pool that’s as red as the DOJ and DC jury pool

Which is the judiciary (broadly) protecting us from rogue prosecutors.

JumpCrisscross··on Why is this fingerprinting script creating bioweapons?
> You concluded that Deepseek is altering politically sensitive topics below the UI layer, and cited this 'research' as evidence of it

Where? I literally showed this report as a counter to the claim that “the political restrictions are applied at the presentation/UI layer only.”

> peer review and strong methodology are indeed things you'd like to have before drawing conclusion based on research

But not before raising suspicion.

> They averaged a -0.76% performance, far from Crowdstrike's headline claims that the Tibet prompt made the model 50% worse

Yup.

JumpCrisscross··on Why is this fingerprinting script creating bioweapons?
> it would behoove one to link it instead of "research" that selectively releases numbers to support a narrative

This is like the endless “but in mice” comments.

Preliminary research has a place. We don’t conclude based off it. But we do validate questions and directions.

> it could just as well be that introducing irrelevant information to context degrades model performance compared to not doing so

Perhaps. You may like the rigor of the student paper, though it’s neither peer reviewed nor methodologically bulletproof and concludes ambiguously on whether this is corruption or a weird effect.

JumpCrisscross··on Why Is This Fingerprinting Script Creating Bioweapons?
> it could just be that the lack of data involving tibet leads to poorer results

Sure. My point is this strongly suggests something going on deeper than “the presentation/UI layer only.”

JumpCrisscross··on Why is this fingerprinting script creating bioweapons?
> stuff they didn't publish any numbers for?

You’d have a point if you said this wasn’t a transparent study. You’re pretty wrong in suggesting it’s worthless, particularly since it spawned follow-up work [1], some of which mirrors the concerns you present here, though none that has yet reached peer review.

> Mentioning Tibet specifically causes model performance to degrade, this must be the result of censorship or intentional sabotage

OP said “the political restrictions are applied at the presentation/UI layer only.” That doesn’t comport with the sort of error where model performance corresponds to specific geographic modifiers in a way other models do not.

Another comment mentioned potential poisoning due to training-data selection. That tracks! This behaviour is weird enough that I don’t currently suspect sabotage. But it is anomalous behavior happening deeper than presentation/UI.

[1] https://www.essays.se/essay/c4d55f2cb0/

JumpCrisscross··on Git for the US Code
The idea that American voters are a check on corrupt officials is dead on the side of the road.
JumpCrisscross··on Git for the US Code
> If you allocate power to prosecutors to prosecute elected officials, you've basically handed them the power to decide who people are allowed to vote for

Of course not. You’ve given them the power to present a case to a court.

> consider a hypothetical system where we allow prosecutions according to the standard you propose

Literally the current DoJ and FBI.

JumpCrisscross··on Why is this fingerprinting script creating bioweapons?
> claim is literally worthless without a control group like "industrial control system based in Germany"

Like USA and Hong Kong? Or no modifier? The stuff on Table 1?

Also, as the study says, “under the null hypothesis that there are no biases affecting code security” geographic modifiers “should not have had any effect.” If adding a geographic modifier causes the model to go haywire (for some modifiers but not others no less), the issue isn’t just at the presentation layer.

JumpCrisscross··on Why is this fingerprinting script creating bioweapons?
> For China, the political restrictions are applied at the presentation/UI layer only

“…when telling DeepSeek-R1 that it was coding for an industrial control system based in Tibet, the likelihood of it generating code with severe vulnerabilities increased to 27.2%. This was an increase of almost 50% compared to the baseline” [1].

> there is no law that restricts releasing open models that are capable of producing “wrongthink” output

“…several open-source datasets were ‘dealt with’, using the official language, despite the fact that open weights distributed for free are not subject to most of the Chinese AI regulations” [2]. That soft guidance likely goes hard with the mooted “comprehensive AI legislation” [3].

[1] https://www.crowdstrike.com/en-us/blog/crowdstrike-researche...

[2] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TKcjrvcMuY7Ca7Ya9/china-ai-s...

[3] https://intelligence.dlapiper.com/artificial-intelligence/?t...

JumpCrisscross··on Git for the US Code
> If you've got a statute like "no vehicles in the park," the fundamental issue is that you have to interpret "what is meant by 'vehicle'?"

Maybe. Maybe it’s a court finding the legislature never had the power to pass that rule. Maybe it’s what constitutes a park.

Visualizing changes in statute with git is fine. It would have real difficulty in presenting changes in law, as a whole, as well as an annotated supplement. (At the end of the day, redlines, git trees and annotated supplements are just visualization methods. The actual federal law lives in the USC, CFR and opinions of our courts.)

JumpCrisscross··on Git for the US Code
> every country that regularly prosecutes elected officials

The bar should be high. We’ve set it impossibly high. In terms of instability risk, corruption is currently causing runaway prosecutions.

JumpCrisscross··on Git for the US Code
> 1) An 18-year (9*2) term is more compatible with age limits than a 36-year term 2) Each Senate class gets to participate in the appointment of one justice

I like No. 1.

No. 2 seems overcomplicated compared with staggering retirements in the way Art. 1 § 3 cl. 2 staggers the Senate. The Senate is also more diverse than the Presidency; limiting the latter would check against some dirty tricks.

JumpCrisscross··on Git for the US Code
There is complexity behind the vote, yes. But the vote is what matters. Who initially introduced text into a bill that did or didn’t pass, with or without their vote, is on the legislative side. That’s a lot more complicated to track than the USC.
JumpCrisscross··on US agency approves Amazon Leo’s $11.5B acquisition of Globalstar
> Do you take a Ku dish backpacking?

Separate use cases. Ku is great on boats and planes. L band (Iridium) has better reception than Starlink; its low frequencies don’t see water or trees and can sometimes attenuate a bit around cliffs. (I personally don’t carry anything except for a 406 MHz beacon.)

Note that Starlink is Ku and Ka. And for most cases, I agree, Starlink is in a class of its own. But it’s not a one shot, even before we consider the tremendous damage Elon did to its brand over the last week.

JumpCrisscross··on Git for the US Code
We need to amend the Constitution to strike pardon power and give the Congress the power to pass property taxes (aka wealth taxes) and regulate donations to campaigns, candidates, parties and partisan causes.

We also need law establishing mandatory retirement for Congressmen and judges, including justices, and a system where each President appoints (with Senate consent) one and only one justice to SCOTUS. Finally, yes, pass McCain-Feingold, pass a SCOTUS ethics bill and make corruption charges easier to bring.

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