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MichaelCollins

6,129 karma · joined July 8, 2022

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MichaelCollins··on Eye contact marks the rise and fall of shared attention in conversation
It says nothing of the sort. If "neurodivergent" people are going to imagine insults where there are none, that cannot be helped.
MichaelCollins··on Eye contact marks the rise and fall of shared attention in conversation
> I don’t look at people in the eyes because I can sometimes see that they’re lying to my face.

Ignorance is bliss I guess? I prefer to know. Usually I don't call people out, but I still prefer to know.

MichaelCollins··on Eye contact marks the rise and fall of shared attention in conversation
I have a similar problem, but I don't think lack of lip reading is the problem for me. I think a lot of people simply mumble when they have a mask on. Something about the sensation of the mask on their face has them start slurring words and speaking softly.
MichaelCollins··on Just a bunch of idiots having fun: a photo history of the LAN party
Isn't that what those AC-detecting pens are for?
MichaelCollins··on Power struggles among nice people
> Elon Musk vs the space industry

The other billionaire funded disruptive space startup has proven themselves less competent than "old space". Jeff Bezos founded Blue Origin two years before SpaceX, and they've still accomplished a fat lot of nothing. Their most significant accomplishment to date is stalling ULA's Vulcan rocket for years, because they couldn't deliver engines on time. They still haven't been to orbit.

> All the conquistador really has to do is gallop in and show what is possible.

They were massively outnumbered, lost all their artillery and most of their horses. Nothing about what they did was easy, they only survived because they were better at politics than the Aztecs, and made many regional alliances. And because they got extremely lucky. It defies logic and all rational expectation that so many were able to escape Tenochtitlan with their lives. If not for their native allies, they surely never would have been heard from again.

> But when you get past that disruption phase the conquistadors often fall down.

Broken analogy. Despite their rocky start, the conquistadors would come to utterly dominated the native cultures (including their former allies.)

> Steve Jobs 2.0 (the return) vs ugly beige box PCs.

And we're all worse off for it. We, the aggregate computer consumers, have chosen a shiny prison instead of shabby freedom. Despite increased public awareness for environmental concerns, our computers have become increasingly less repairable. Apple's most significant innovation has been turning computers into fashion items that get replaced while still useful to avoid looking uncool.

> it remains to be seen if SpaceX will hold it together.

No more than the rest of the space industry, who are all still very far behind SpaceX. The whole thing may collapse if nerds ever figure out that Mars colonies aren't happening, but by all rights that realization should have come years ago.

MichaelCollins··on Class-action lawsuit filed against US state agency over mobile 'spyware'
> Anyway, I doubt Yahweh considers it a sin to

I don't give a damn what your god thinks. Or are you responding to C.S. Lewis's beliefs? Quoting a Christian doesn't make me a Christian, least of all when the quote doesn't even present a religious argument.

MichaelCollins··on Class-action lawsuit filed against US state agency over mobile 'spyware'
Indeed, ends vs the means. People who think one or the other is more important will talk right past each other, never see eye to eye.
MichaelCollins··on Class-action lawsuit filed against US state agency over mobile 'spyware'
Why not F-Droid? F-Droid is great.
MichaelCollins··on Class-action lawsuit filed against US state agency over mobile 'spyware'
> They did it with good intentions

That's how the road to hell is paved.

“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.”

- C. S. Lewis

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
Russia doesn't have the infrastructure to sell this gas to China. Nevertheless it could still be advantageous to China, since now Russia will be more desperate to close deals in general.
MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
> The "Russia blew up the pipeline" idea makes absolutely no sense. And if there was any evidence to support it, you know that the whole of Western media would be shouting it from every rooftop. But instead we have silence, and concerns over "national security"

Indeed. With every day that goes by without NATO publicly publishing proof of Russia being the culprit, Russian responsibility seems less likely. If Russia did it, going public with that proof would be great for America/NATO and harmful to Russia.

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
Germany's economy will suffer significantly, but Germany will survive.

The language "trouble surviving the winter" plainly suggests massive numbers of Germans freezing to death, which isn't going to happen. Even if I grant that this claim is talking about damage to the German economy (I don't) it is unlikely that the German economy will collapse during this winter. The economic ramifications will be felt for many years to come but there is no chance of Germany ceasing to exist this winter as claimed above.

> And let’s not forget that economic harm inflicted from abroad is precisely what gave rise to WWII.

Fear of that sort of scenario should mostly be focused on Russia, who are going to lose a war as Germany lost WW1, and will be looking for scapegoats. Besides Russia, I can think of other countries which have suffered far more economic damage due to this war than Germany. Particularly, the one that actually got invaded. Germany's economy is still strong and healthy compared to Ukraine's.

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
Korea isn't in a war (their northern neighbor notwithstanding). They are still ostensibly abiding by the rule of law, so of course they're not going to merely give the finger to anybody who tries to fine them.

Or maybe those courts which could somehow force Russia to pay fines for turning off gas should force Russia to pay fines for invading Ukraine.

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
> But the US does things professionally and they would have blown up all the pipes as opposed to 3 out of 4

That's a shakey presumption. 3 out of 4 may have been a compromise between the arguments for taking out the pipelines and the arguments against it. We cannot know for certain how many pipelines the attacker, whoever it was, intended to destroy.

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
Certainly a possibility. One advantage of using a submarine is you're less likely to be caught red handed, but that doesn't prove it was done with a submarine.
MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
I say it to them: Germany will survive.

Exaggerating (very real) economic harm as an existential matter of survival is silly. Germany's survival is not in doubt.

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
> they'll simply sell the natural gas to Asia or through another pipeline

Which pipeline? They don't have pipelines to Asia that can handle the gas they meant to send through Nordstream.

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
> the West's weakness

Not weakness. A proxy war is much safer than an overt war between nuclear powers. It would be irrational to escalate unless there was no other choice. Since feigning ignorance is a choice, that's preferable to escalation. The ability to maintain this status quo, in which Russia depletes itself in a quagmire, is very advantageous to NATO. Maintaining this status quo is a show of NATO's strength.

If NATO let itself get baited into an overt war with Russia, that would be weakness.

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
Ukraine had the strongest motive, but the least technical ability (to do this specifically) of all the suspects, including Russia.
MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
That's basically just a restatement of the "principled commitment to truth for the sake of truth" motive for naming your own ally as the culprit. I think/hope Germany/Sweden/etc are too smart for that.
MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
Yes, certainly if it was done with a conventional submarine. But it's not impossible that Ukraine found a way to do it independently with a UUV/etc.
MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
> it will have trouble surviving the winter.

Relax, they're going to be fine.

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
Keeping the gas off.
MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
> terrorist attack

A targeted attack against a strategic resource, during a war, with no [direct] civilian casualties. This doesn't meet the common definitions of terrorism. This is equivalent to bombing train yards, not city centers. The best argument for it being terrorism is the civilians who may freeze to death this winter, but even that is dubious.

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
> Do any contracts even matter between Russia and Europe at this point.

Doubtful. I think the most rational reason Russia might have done it was to remove a bargaining chip from any Russian challengers to Putin. But this seems like a stretch; if Putin thought some gazprom executive was going to use the pipeline to negotiate a peace with Europe, he'd probably just order that executive and his family murdered. That seems to be the way he operates.

Self-sabotage to preempt coups is not unheard of though. The organizational dysfunction and poorly trained state of several militaries around the world is probably attributable in part to self-sabotage, by politicians who fear military coups.

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
> Were they holding hands? Or one sabotaged one pipe and the other the other?

Yes, that's a distinct possibility. The US and UK are tight, particularly with underwater stuff. They have a history of sharing submarine secrets with each other. Even reactor technology and screw/pumpjet design. That's some of the most secret stuff America and the UK have, and they share it with each other. It's fair to suspect that one may have consulted with the other before doing something like this.

MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
Ukraine also had a rational motive, but has significantly less underwater capability than the US/UK. That said, they're very resourceful, good at finding new ways to apply modern technology. I think it may have been any or a combination of the three. America is obviously the prime suspect, due to Biden's public albeit deniable vague threat.
MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
The relevant difference between America and Russia is that Eastern European countries choose to ally with America because they fear Russia, not the other way around.
MichaelCollins··on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says
I think there is a non-zero chance the culprit has already been identified privately, but won't be identified publicly (at least for many years) for political reasons. There is little to no utility in publicly naming and shaming the culprit if the culprit is your ally or partner; doing so won't bring the pipe back, and would weaken public support for the alliance. Besides a principled commitment to truth for the sake of truth, there would be no rational reason to publicly blame your ally even if you're certain your ally did it.
MichaelCollins··on Paris mulls e-scooter ban in global test for micromobility industry
You're comparing the cheap end of scooters to the expensive end of smartphones. The cheapest smartphones cost about 10x than the cheapest scooters. Tens of dollars (if not free) vs a few hundred dollars.
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