245 karma · joined December 20, 2010
What I also find interesting is that this idea is rather old, it can be found in Christianity, for example, where "devil is tempting you", that is thoughts and wishes you have might not be your own (but from some demon tempting you). It may sound a bit silly in modern times, but it boils down to the same idea.
To make things more specific, those labs had uncertainty budget with something like 20 terms for the things they measured. Each of those terms had associated probability distribution etc. They had uncertainty budgets for all the methods they did etc., and some of those where probably dated, done by someone else, etc. etc. Who checks that? Is the check rigorous enough? Are some assumptions made that don't hold to scrutiny?
So it is actually very easy for error to creep in, I would say actually very likely.
On the other hand, I don't think that China rising is a bad thing, and it will make a world a better place, since USA and its allies can't compete with China with wars (though there are some pathetic attempts) but you probably must put all that war budget money and effort into research and infrastructure.
Possibly this is a huge win-win for the whole world. Or we end up in flames if there is enough stupidity and solving things by war and force.
[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092540051... Section 4.1 about ozone predictors