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Spivak

19,437 karma · joined January 5, 2015

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Spivak··on Anthropic to receive high 'junk' rating from credit agencies following IPO
From my reading we're in agreement basically. The only real difference is that I think AGI is destined to ultimately describe ship's computer but not Data based on current trajectory—largely because trillions of dollars really want to slap that term on a product.

And I don't really think it's entirely unreasonable because there does actually seem to be a real gap in terminology. Even Star Trek didn't really imagine a computer system that's general but exists without consciousness, the whole message of the Exocomp story is exactly that—it's a huge breakthrough that they invented a general system and it turns out to be conscious. And the show makes a point that while the computers they have are incredibly advanced it's ultimately the product of human programming. We seem to just have assumed that any general system would be conscious and the term AGI was born of that assumption.

Spivak··on OpenAI raises less than half of $30B target
There's no should, only what economics incentivize. Right now we're not paying for the upfront training costs-it's great, the Millennial subsidy continues. But if, and big if right now, the infinite money font dries up and they have to recoup training investment direct from customers then that looks to be a huge price increase on the ground which makes cheap to train and good enough even more attractive than it already is.
Spivak··on OpenAI raises less than half of $30B target
I mean I'm happy for better but it might start grounding the industry where 1.6% better on some benchmarks doesn't justify hundred million investments.
Spivak··on Anthropic to receive high 'junk' rating from credit agencies following IPO
Well they're for sure going to result in something a desperate marketing team is going to call AGI and through persistence through all the laughter will result in a new term being coined like ActualAGI so people can refer to it as separate from "AGI Class Models."

I'm somewhat inclined to give it to them at this point, I mean it's artificial, general in the sense that it can complete tasks it wasn't programmed for, and intelligent enough I guess. I mean if there was a planet with creatures at the level of LLMs we'd probably call it intelligent life—used in that way we're not really implying the creatures are particularly smart. It's as much simulated disembodied intelligence as you could reasonably hope for. I wouldn't at all expect that simulated intelligence: the computer algorithm would have any relation to actual intelligence except at the minimum superficial level needed to complete tasks. With AGI out of the way we would at least have to be more specific on what the sci-fi dream actually entails. The computer from Star Trek is certainly intelligent but you would never say it has a brain or anything close to it.

Spivak··on Breaking the open web won't stop the bad bots
> normal people can avoid needing to care about the distinction by endeavoring to not kill anyone to begin with

It's the same thing here, a normal person will never run afoul of this law. It is entirely industry professionals who will be affected and they have legal departments who will figure out where the line is to the millimeter. Sure translating to legalese is hard and I expect this kind of legislation will be mostly common law after a bunch of lawsuits but the giveaway that it will be fine is that assigning "bot/not bot" to a given situation is something we all agree on in the industry. There isn't really that much borderline here. You can't accidentally build a web scraper operating off a residential proxy network and it's pretty obvious when you decide to disguise your traffic because you don't have the consent of site you're scraping.

Even the horribly contrived borderline examples boil down to "but I should have the right to actively deceive and circumvent security measures designed specifically to keep me out" which is a pretty tough sell.

Spivak··on Breaking the open web won't stop the bad bots
Well yes but once you're in the US someone owns the machine you're getting hit by and you can make them take it down. People won't just throw their hands up "well the operator isn't in the US nothing can be done", they'll just make DigitalOcean block them.
Spivak··on Breaking the open web won't stop the bad bots
Because you can make it not without much difficulty. There's plenty of sites that operate entirely within the US and it's trivial to hard block everyone else. It's not perfect but assuming the law actually works (which isn't a given) inside US borders we now get the advantages of a high-trust system.

At absolute minimum it should mean that US ranges could see fewer captchas because bad actors can be whacked by the legal system instead of degrading user experience.

Spivak··on Breaking the open web won't stop the bad bots
Sure but this probably wouldn't happen like that, what would happen is that when journalists make that petition it creates a real special case in the law available to everyone.
Spivak··on Breaking the open web won't stop the bad bots
It's a human level distinction that doesn't have technical distinction—the law handles these kinds of things just fine. The flesh doesn't know the difference between manslaughter and murder but we humans can figure it out well enough.

The world you envision where we decide that the law can't assess intent is certainly an interesting one but I don't think it would be the most functional.

Spivak··on Why Windows 11 still ships with Windows 95's memory manager hidden inside it
I'm not going to even try and say the venv stuff isn't clunkier and less flexible than what came after but people seem to have a hate bonner for it but not node_modules which is the same concept with better tooling. Python might even get its own direct equivalent so things "just work." And folks love Bundler in Ruby which behaves in even stranger ways than venvs.
Spivak··on Why Windows 11 still ships with Windows 95's memory manager hidden inside it
Nobody is going to tell you that Python 2->3 wasn't excruciatingly painful but it's hard to argue with the result. Sometimes you have to rip the bandaid off. Python 3 is by far the better language.

You're right the "commercial" timeline of Python would have supported Python 2 forever because big paying clients demand it but I think that would have led to a worse outcome for the OSS community.

Spivak··on Why Windows 11 still ships with Windows 95's memory manager hidden inside it
In 20 years we'll have finally reached the logical conclusion to all of this that there shouldn't be separate os components you link against and your "OS" will just be manager of lightweight VMs.

Now you can just ship the user your machine and software can theoretically be immortal.

Spivak··on Why Windows 11 still ships with Windows 95's memory manager hidden inside it
I really want to believe you and that I've just missed the magic support forums but trying to find answers to problems on Windows is just a million forums of the same essentially "turn it off and on again" advice

Linux forums might be obtuse but at least they'll have actual technical details about the problem. Almost without fail any "fix" they propose won't work on your system because it's for a different distro that was EoL 5 years ago but they'll at least give you something to work with.

Spivak··on Most advice is right for the person giving it
This. 1 Million billion times this. Your story exactly mirrors mine and good heavens I would never loose weight via the suffering route ever again. Losing weight normally I'm in constant pain and literally can't think of anything else-it's all consuming. I do not say this as exaggeration I would rather go through chemo again. At least that you can make the suffering go away sometimes with meds.
Spivak··on MicroG: Free-libre re-implementation of Google's proprietary Android user space
Motorola is launching a GrapheneOS phone direct to consumers next year. Getting picked up by a major OEM is about as taken seriously as you can get.
Spivak··on How I got over 300 Tor exit nodes removed
Well yeah, because running an exit node in the US is "probably legal but there's precedent for still getting arrested and having your stuff seized." I can't imagine very many normal people are willing to paint a target on their backs like this.
Spivak··on I built a programming language that LLMs can't use
Trivial for a human to use while being able to independently arbitrarily scale the difficulty for a wide class of LLMs does I think say something about a possible inherent limitation in what they can do.

The fact that you can make something obtuse and difficult to use for everyone is less interesting than what is displayed here.

Spivak··on AI Can Write the Code. Who Verifies It?
AI has really laid bare how little software is valued as a craft—it's been true for time immortal but some SWEs really buy into the idea. And occasionally we're able to trick leadership into believing it too with terms like "tech debt." But now that the business has for the first time literally any other option and can trade quality for speed they're starting to skip dev entirely the way they skipped QA before.
Spivak··on My old job feels distant now
Sure I do, the only difference between the two is which society considers normal. Your argument basically boils down to how dare these spoiled kids operate outside of the Overton Window of acceptable externalizable labor I was raised to consider normal. It wouldn't even be two generations ago where someone could write this exact rant about sewing. And today it is relegated to a quaint hobby. The same thing happened with car maintenance and food preservation within living memory.

Don't get me wrong, I partake in the group hazing ritual of guys who can't cook—it's good fun. But on the tiniest bit of introspection it's pretty obvious it's well on the way to becoming a hobby. We're already 90% of the way there with the hallowing out of the 'middle' between glorified warming prepared foods and enthusiast home cooks. The class divide isn't really cooks/non-cooks anymore it's DoorDash vs grocery store freezer section. Sad but not unexpected.

Spivak··on eBay Restricts Listings of Radio Equipment, but Exempts Ham-Band-Only Gear
Because the FCC is puppeting Ebay through regulation, the author is deliberately painting this as evil large corporation because I assume that gets more clicks, the real title would be "FCC Enacts Rule Restricting Sale of Radio Equipment, Marketplaces Like Ebay Forced to Pull Listings."

https://www.fcc.gov/document/fcc-adopts-rules-strengthen-rul...

> Protecting Against National Security Threats to the Communications Supply Chain…

Yeah… a foreign adversary is totally going to be thwarted by FCC certification. The Russian's are probably just kicking themselves for buying at Walmart.

Spivak··on My old job feels distant now
Where a lot of this gets stuck is that AI software dev isn't a closed loop. They're still completely dependent on complex human written codebases to actually do anything. They're adept users of libraries and platforms but, at least for now, not so adept builders of the same. The ability cutoff being roughly where public documentation ends.

I don't think this will be a hill forever, after all folks have managed to get new novel mathematics out of these models, but for the medium term it seems like the good (software) business to be in is selling shovels to the people digging for AI gold.

Spivak··on My old job feels distant now
Your privilege is showing by only saying one of those stand out.

At least with keyboards you can say they actually replaced typewriters but the other two are just paying someone else to do the same labor.

Spivak··on Anthropic reported diary entry to police, woman faces felony charge
Okay so say she wrote it in Office365 in the web browser?
Spivak··on Anthropic reported diary entry to police, woman faces felony charge
Yes, and it's weird that on a form of technologists we're going with the idea that all of these systems we use every day to hold our personal private information that we are constantly ensured is secured against anyone unauthorized from accessing it is actually snitching to the cops just because someone else is hosting it on our behalf.

The 3rd Party Doctrine destroyed the 4th amendment and is the reason privacy respecting software has to play legal games. E2EE while a good security practice shouldn't be necessary to protect you against the cops rummaging around your stuff. The bar to establish that information is private shouldn't be "literally mathematically inaccessible but the cops are still allowed to try."

Spivak··on One person can now be a quorum at the SEC
Am I wrong or is this whole story super dumb? If the US isn't going to respect the WTO then boot them out, change the rules and move on. This is a human institution by and for other humans. Rule lawyering when one of your players is shitting on the board is madness. I get that that's what happened in effect but just do it in the regular WTO.
Spivak··on UK Government Body Kept Files on People Criticizing Prevent Program
Wait what? So people were fed up that the conservative government wasn't conservative enough so they elected a government that purports to be further left, and that you call far left? Or are you saying they lost because a further right party took some of their votes and spoilered it?
Spivak··on Why don't more developers “use the platform”?
Not sure why you're being downvoted, this is basically the sole reason the web won as a development platform. You aren't tied to the platform's idea of what components should look like or how they behave, by default. You can take the Figma screens and make them exactly.
Spivak··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
You are committing the scale invariant fallacy where two things are the same if they only differ by scale. A chance encounter with a human who reports the sighting to be investigated isn't even surveillance, your massively watered down flock still turns a bolo into 24/7 surveillance of the vehicle going forward. Which if we use the test of could humans do this it would at minimum require a warrant.
Spivak··on UK Government Body Kept Files on People Criticizing Prevent Program
I'm not exactly tuned into UK politics but haven't you guys had a conservative government for eight of the last ten years? And even then I don't think I've ever seen Labour called far left before so I assume that isn't it. Is there some far left throughline in your government that isn't obvious?
Spivak··on Hackers had a live feed of every ID verification company scanned for over a year
Also if you enforce the use of Yubikey or a similar DRM protected device then we're back to the user not actually being able to own/control their key. And if you don't it's a second password which can be shared out.

"Just use existing OTP" is a model that assumes that people actually want to protect their credentials. This is a Netflix password sharing situation and OTP didn't solve it.

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