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_uy6i

1,765 karma · joined August 14, 2013

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_uy6i··on Equality is prevented by the misperception that it harms advantaged groups
This is my point - here is a clear example where equality of opportunity not resulting in equality of outcome, which should imply that inequality of outcome does not necessarily mean unequal opportunity.
_uy6i··on Coinbase stock lost over 75% value
I know nothing about NET other than the 30seconds I just spent looking at their financials - they managed to triple their revenue over three years but they seemed to have managed to about triple their losses over the same time period and they trade at ~30x sales, MSFT is ~11x, guess people believe they’ll be earning a ~$2b/year in the next several years?
_uy6i··on Feeling uncomfortable when leaving phone at home shouldn't be normal
Lol - “move quickly”

Tangentially - I’m always astonished at the lack of self-awareness of many municipal/utility service providers - they pretend like I’ve sought out their service and WANT to engage with them, when in fact I just want them to provide me the thing I need (or am obligated to do) with as little hassle as possible…

_uy6i··on Feeling uncomfortable when leaving phone at home shouldn't be normal
I think there is a difference between being thrown off by your routine (I have the same feeling if I’m not carrying my wallet or keys with me) and being “addicted” (for lack of a better word) to your phone and going into withdrawal - the number of situations I’m constantly in where people are incapable of being “present” because they are on their phones is depressing and astonishing
_uy6i··on Feeling uncomfortable when leaving phone at home shouldn't be normal
How did humanity manage?! /s

Don’t get me wrong, smartphones are great conveniences, I can land in a foreign country and book a hotel, a car from the airport, find a place for lunch, etc. all (surreptitiously) while waiting at passport control. That being said I making a plan with someone (and not flaking), and doing a little research/looking at a map, asking friends for recommendations, was never that hard)

_uy6i··on Equality is prevented by the misperception that it harms advantaged groups
Which is why there is a visceral pushback - if a parents struggles in providing a better life for their children don’t actually inure to the children, what’s the point (I.e. if I scrimp and save to send my kid to test prep-training to get her into a better high school, and only to have her be handicapped because of her advantage (my sacrifice) won’t that drive resentment, nihilism etc?)
_uy6i··on Equality is prevented by the misperception that it harms advantaged groups
Opportunity + luck + preferences (I.e. someone values flexibility over compensation, or video games over homework)
_uy6i··on Equality is prevented by the misperception that it harms advantaged groups
Take the gender pay gap for uber drivers, unassailable equality of opportunity, yet there’s a gender pay gap, oh yeah, people/groups have preferences…

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/what-can-uber-teach-us-abou...

_uy6i··on When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash
While I appreciate many of the arguments being made - and there are countless similar situations (nifty 50 anyone) - that nasdaq is not the stock market it’s like 1/3rd of it… pop over to yahoo finance and look at the chart of the Russell 3000 Vs the nasdaq, this is why people recommend diversification…
_uy6i··on When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash
This may be the case for many goods (e.g. cars, furniture, dishwashers, beef) - but definitely not assets (e.g. homes, bonds, stocks, art)
_uy6i··on Your phone may soon replace many of your passwords
It seems you think that having a phone, on you at all times and charged is easier/better than a key/fob. I honestly don’t see how one can think that is a better solution. This solution REQUIRES that I can’t leave my house with my (charged) phone!!! That’s a massive restriction!
_uy6i··on Your phone may soon replace many of your passwords
Ok, and when I can’t get into my building because of a power outage or there is a “technical glitch”?

Is something really more convenient/better if it doesn’t work when you need it most?

_uy6i··on Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says
Price formation is complicated - think about the fact 5-6m home sales a year, at the price for 80-90m homes, if the composition of those buyers and sellers changes, that changes the “implied” price for everyone
_uy6i··on Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says
No that’s more a chart of home prices values

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp...

You’re looking for this:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=n9xI

_uy6i··on A short conversation with a bank
CU and Bank both have shareholders.

The shareholders of a credit union are by law/definition its customers/depositors.

The shareholders of a bank can be anyone.

_uy6i··on A short conversation with a bank
I did a project in the space, and iirc only like 10-20% of overdrafts (by volume) were inadvertent/mis-management, another smaller group were people that didn’t care (accept that they are going to pay a few hundred dollars a year in overdraft in order to not balance their checkbook). But the vast majority actually made a conscious decision yo pay an overdraft fee, usually because it was a better alternative (sadly) than paying a similar fee to the utility, landlord, car lender,etc. and you don’t lose electricity, a roof over your head, or transportation. Depending on how they’re employed they can also be a better alternative to payday lending. Not advocating for overdraft fees, but just saying that mose users are going in with their eyes open (they just have worse alternatives)
_uy6i··on America produces enough oil to meet its needs, so why do we import crude?
Not to mention that the vast majority of the imports are from western Canada going to refineries in the Midwest (which makes sense that the cost to import is cheaper than because the distance is actually closer than other producing areas of the US where there is more refining demand (gulf coast). Not to mention no one has built a new refinery in the past ~60 years (Guesstimate) and two thirds of the refining capacity is on the gulf coast - which means in some cases a cargo from Venezuela is cheaper than shipping oil from alaska (as a stupid example.
_uy6i··on Tesla driver dies after his Model 3 stops on highway, gets hit by two other
Agreed - edited to include my assumption
_uy6i··on Tesla driver dies after his Model 3 stops on highway, gets hit by two other
But I would think that only relates to mechanical breakdowns due to normal wear and tear or lack of proper maintenance? Wouldn’t a manufacturer have responsibility if the breaks failed at high speed the day I drove my new car off the lot?
_uy6i··on Why are there so many bad bosses?
Did he work for Koch? They’re fairly famous for disconnecting compensation from supervision/leadership - I.e. individual contributors earning more than their bosses.
_uy6i··on Tesla driver dies after his Model 3 stops on highway, gets hit by two other
What’s Tesla’s exposure here - do they disclaim liability for a failure like this?

Edit: Assuming this was software diver assist issue

_uy6i··on How much do construction costs matter to the price of housing?
Fair enough - but I’d say the quality of construction was much higher as well.
_uy6i··on How much do construction costs matter to the price of housing?
Compliance with building codes <> higher quality

I grew up in a small farm house built in the 1700’s - post and beam construction, that will far outlast “code compliant” building methods of today

_uy6i··on Financial Secrecy Index
This is pretty stupid if you ask me, the top of the list is just stable countries with a strong tradition of rule of law.
_uy6i··on The potentially revolutionary Celera 500L aircraft
3,300 feet in not a long runway - it means you can access ~80% of the ~5,000 runways in the US. On the the other hand A 777 needs 8,000-10,000 feet meaning it can only access <10% of US runways....

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777#777-200LR

_uy6i··on The Inheritance Tax Is Far Too Low
In furtherance of this point let’s take the article’s author at face value $50m inheritance @21% is $39.5m...not bad! But let’s now be a little more realistic, the family has two kids and not 1 so $19.25m per child - now let’s say that parents died at 85 and had their kids at the age of 30 so the kids are 55 which means they can invest their money for 30 years, and let’s say they invest it in a nice vanguard balanced fund, their after tax annualized return would be 5-7% [1] If we use the past 10-20 years as a guide (this also assumes you live in a place with no state tax like TX or FL). Now inflation is 2-3% so we’re making 3-5% real which means that over our 30 year investment horizon we could expect to increase our wealth between 2.5 - 4.3x if we don’t spend a dime... let’s be real someone with that money is going to want to enjoy at least some of it! So let’s say they spend 2% (or ~$400k/year real) now that 3-5% real is 1% - 3% real or 1.4x - 2.5x the original corpus - now they pass it on to their 2 kids, they’d be lucky to pass along the same amount they inherited - spend a little more along the way, have some bad investments, get a divorce, have more than two kids and your heirs are almost guaranteed to get significantly less than their parents ... Sure they’re still rich, most rich families are in decline once the money’s been made...it may take several generations, but eventually their progeny is back working...

[1] https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/performan...

_uy6i··on Fake-branded bars slip dirty gold into world markets
Try walking into your local bank/gold dealer and selling a Swiss marked bar of gold or one that has the the markings of a drug cartel and see which you would prefer to sell...
_uy6i··on Fake-branded bars slip dirty gold into world markets
There is blending that takes place before counterfeit/smuggled oil is used so it meets the API/spec of the refinery.

You can be sure refiners are testing before anything runs through the plant...

_uy6i··on San Francisco Bans Cashless Stores
Usually laughing at SF regulations - but this is eminently sensible - wish they had added a printed receipt as well
_uy6i··on Why Must You Pay Sales People Commissions?
It was a proxy for the fact most teachers have summers off, so are only working 3/4ths the year...
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