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ajzinsbwbs

184 karma · joined June 8, 2020

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ajzinsbwbs··on Tax hike on California millionaires would create 54% tax rate
I think the long-term historical drop in the ratio of [top marginal rate on individual income] to [tax as a % of GDP] is mainly the result of these factors:

1) increased tax compliance

2) more tax deductions

Overall, you’d need to use a more comprehensive “area under the curve” analysis of every tax to predict the impact of tax policy on total tax revenue, and it would be surprising if it could be predicted based only on the top marginal rate.

A major source of short-term noise is the business cycle, where capital gains and corporate profits fluctuate much faster than GDP, and some automatic stabilizers decrease revenue.

ajzinsbwbs··on Tax hike on California millionaires would create 54% tax rate
You also need to include inflation. Tax receipts actually fell on an inflation-adjusted basis in 2018. Absent any changes in government policy, you’d expect expenses to roughly follow inflation plus population growth, and revenues to roughly follow GDP.

> The point of the chart going back to WW2 is to show that it's a little more complicated and we can't draw conclusions either way.

I don’t think this is correct. Yes, the economy is complicated. No, that doesn’t mean when cutting taxes we can ignore the resulting increase in the budget deficit. A claim that cutting taxes won’t increase the deficit constrains you to make other claims according to the GDP = C + G + I + X equation, and we should demand that lawmakers be specific about those claims.

As I pointed out, the chart is not really flat. The line actually goes up and down.

ajzinsbwbs··on Tax hike on California millionaires would create 54% tax rate
Your link shows the ratio decreasing from 16.97% to 16.16% in 2018 when the bill went into effect. That’s a 5% decrease, which agrees with my above math.

Overall your chart shows the ratio has a range of 19.75% to 14.42% in the past 20 years, tracking changes to the tax code and business cycle, exactly in the way you’d expect. That’s a 36% difference between the min and max ie. not flat.

I think lawmakers supporting tax cuts try to claim that tax revenues are not sensitive to tax rates because it would be convenient if true when trying to pass a tax cut. The facts don’t bear it out, however.

I think the roots of this argument are in the theory of the Laffer Curve: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve The Laffer Curve was used to argue for tax cuts when the top marginal rate was 70%. People are still trying to make this argument, but I think they missed the part where it’s supposed to be a curve, so the result of cutting taxes from 70% is not the same as cutting them from 35%.

ajzinsbwbs··on Tax hike on California millionaires would create 54% tax rate
GDP was growing before and after the Trump tax cut, so growth in tax revenue year over year was expected. The Trump tax cuts went into effect in 2018, and according to your link tax revenues increased from 3.32 to 3.33 trillion that year, which is a 0.3% increase. This was during a year when GDP grew by 5.2%. In other words, revenues fell behind GDP by 4.9%.

Note that I used nominal GDP growth because the linked article used nominal tax revenue. To adjust for inflation we subtract the inflation rate from both sides and we’d get the same 4.9% fallback in tax growth relative to GDP growth.

ajzinsbwbs··on Tax hike on California millionaires would create 54% tax rate
To be more correct, it’s a 7% decrease in income over $5,000,000 (if the total tax rate on that income was 50% before and went to 53.5%, the amount remaining dropped by 7%).

I think this point is under-appreciated. As the top federal tax rate has dropped over the decades, each additional percentage point drop has given less proportional value to top-rate-payers, while costing proportionally more of remaining federal revenue. In that sense, the lower the tax rate already is, the more expensive a tax cut is to the government. The higher the tax rate already is, the more expensive a tax increase is to taxpayers.

This is why tax cuts under Bush and Trump blew up the federal budget - tax rates were already pretty low, so quite deep cuts to revenue were required to deliver any notable benefit to high-rate taxpayers. It’s hard to make rich people much richer by cutting taxes when they are already keeping most of their income. In the case of the Trump tax cut, rates were already so low it required raising taxes on some to cut for others.

On the other hand, you can go back and find times when after-tax income of top rate payers doubled because the top rate dropped from eg. 91% to 77%, which delivered a lot of relative value to those taxpayers while fitting more easily into the federal budget (although as always, it’s probably more complicated as tax bills make changes to deductions when they change rates).

ajzinsbwbs··on Facebook reports second quarter results
I’m not sure. If Facebook had been more surgical to send less traffic to clickbait listicles, but more to Prestigious Investigative Journalists, would the outcome have been the same? Did the unemployed listicle authors find their passion and become serious journalists working the tech beat?
ajzinsbwbs··on Apple reports Q3 results
Wow, iPad revenue up 31% YoY after being down ~10% in the last few quarters. Similar numbers to a Q1 (holiday season). I guess it makes sense that the tablet form factor is popular when so many people are indoors.

Also, services revenue grew YoY but it’s the first time it didn’t grow QoQ in a long time, so it seems to have stagnated. Services include a lot of recurring revenue so they should be consistently growing QoQ.

Wearables growth also slowed, this may be the other side of the coin when people are indoors and don’t want to buy a watch for fitness tracking.

ajzinsbwbs··on Facebook reports second quarter results
I don’t think harming journalists was the motive, but it was the outcome, and in hindsight it seems predictable. At least it should serve as a lesson to anyone who faces a similar decision in the future.
ajzinsbwbs··on Facebook reports second quarter results
Modifying the news feed algorithm to send less traffic to traditional news sites contributed to a lot of layoffs and general turmoil in the industry. This resulted in major animosity toward Facebook among journalists, which has encouraged them to highlight the negative effects of Facebook. These narratives encourage regulatory action against Facebook, which is now one of the main risks facing the company. I’d go so far as to say this little revenue-optimizing move may be a major cause of the media’s turn from fawning over big tech to trying to take it down. Similar story with the fights over payment for Google News previews in Europe. Squeezing journalists financially is a great example of a penny-wise, pound-foolish move.
ajzinsbwbs··on Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0
I’m just responding to the common claim that means-testing UBI would be expensive relative to the expenditures of the program (well-illustrated by the quote “appropriating dollars to save pennies“ in the comment I responded to). This is a quantitative question, not a moral one. I don’t think it serves the movement to be making arguments that are obviously wrong if you do a bit of easy research or math, or just think critically about it. It makes the advocacy less credible. Since most people only read comments online and don’t post, you might not normally get any feedback from those who feel this way.

> Furthermore, you can solve the same problem just by increasing taxes on the rich. If you send every rich person $12k, but also tax them $12k more per year, the money spent/saved is exactly the same as not sending it to them in the first place.

This argument assumes you are identifying wealthy people, so again, it doesn’t support the claim that the overhead of identifying wealthy people will make UBI more expensive.

ajzinsbwbs··on Google’s problems are bigger than just the antitrust case
There’s still a ton of interesting content on YouTube. They have taken down stuff that didn’t deserve to be taken down, but it’s a very small portion of overall content. Other than people who are only interested in watching borderline material, I don’t think it affected the average user much. I can still watch a guy marvel in an endearing Canadian accent as he inspects the manufacturing of a $500 toaster.

And YouTube continued to grow quickly last year, so in the empirical sense it is doing well. The nature of the platform is that it is full of content producers with massive followings. If a small portion of those producers get dinged, they can make a lot of noise, but it doesn’t necessarily amount to much compared to YouTube as a whole.

ajzinsbwbs··on Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0
I hear this argument a lot but it makes no sense to me. Suppose UBI is $12k/year. Then as long as it costs less than $12k to identify a rich person, it’s cheaper to not pay the rich people than to pay everyone.

In fact, we already have any agency that does this for most Americans called the IRS. The budget of the IRS is $12 billion, which comes out to about $100 per taxpayer. The cost of the IRS administering the tax system is less than 1% of the value of the money it raises. The IRS does things like check if people are eligible for credits and deductions they claim, and if they are due a refund. Clearly it’s much cheaper to employ an agency like the IRS to check the numbers than it is to just pay everyone. Increases to the budget of the IRS raise tax revenues, yielding a positive return. And since we already have the IRS, we don’t even need to fund a new agency to do this work for UBI. Compared to the overall cost of the UBI program (trillions of dollars) it would be trivial to fund the IRS to do means-testing. This would make UBI a much cheaper program, so it would be easier to fit into the budget.

I don’t doubt that local welfare agencies are a shitty bureaucracy, and I wouldn’t advocate putting them in charge of UBI.

ajzinsbwbs··on iRobot's New Education Robot Makes Learning to Code a Little More Affordable
I had internet access since I was about 10, used the internet constantly though my teenage years, and did great in math and science in school (winning contests and the like). I was also interested in computing and thought it would be cool to know how to code. I even tried to follow some tutorials to learn, but I guess they didn’t explain the tooling so I never managed to run my code. I was missing some tiny experience of running a compiler that would change coding from a thing I’d read about to a thing I’d actually do. I didn’t actually learn to code until I took a computer science class in college. I took it up quickly, and have since had a very good career as a software engineer.

I had the hardware, the aptitude, the interest, and the free time, but it just didn’t happen until I was in the right environment to give me a bit of initial hand-holding. I guess my point is, don’t just throw your kid in front of a computer and assume they will learn to code. They might end up writing fanfiction, playing an MMO, or trolling on 4chan instead.

ajzinsbwbs··on Firefox 79
Good point. It’s usually me trying to convince dad to update software, not the other way around.
ajzinsbwbs··on Perseverance Toward Life Goals Can Fend Off Depression, Anxiety, Panic Disorders
I’m not the person you responded to, but I’ve lived with a person who had a case of OCD that I’m confident saying is definitely not adaptive. To give one anecdote among many, this person would spend the entire day in the shower because they got a spot of grease on their pants. Episodes of this severity were common (ie. sometimes happening daily for extended stretches of time). They explained the cause of the behavior as a failure of communication between the part of the brain and solves a problem and the part that needs to acknowledge that the problem has been solved so the solving can stop. I don’t know if that tracks with psychiatry, but explanation made sense to me.
ajzinsbwbs··on Why GPT-3 Matters
It doesn’t sound like the worst way to hire model builders.
ajzinsbwbs··on Adevinta wins auction to buy eBay's classified ads unit for nearly $9B: source
If this is true, why does the share price go up? Who is buying the stock after the short-term play? Is the market just dumb, and the only people who know the truth are the disgruntled-ex management who complain to the media about short-termism?

My perspective is that activist actions do incur some risk but have positive expected value in the long run. There are horror stories, but overall they create value, which is why people continue to invest in them.

I agree it’s possible to get stuck in local optima, but it’s awfully convenient for many CEOs to be in that situation. I suppose everyone who isn’t already running a trillion dollar company is in a local optima, if you think about it. It’s hard to blame shareholders for getting fed up after enough years of that and saying enough is enough, maybe you aren’t ever going to climb the mountain and should go to that local optima instead.

ajzinsbwbs··on Adevinta wins auction to buy eBay's classified ads unit for nearly $9B: source
What is the long term if not the sum of the short terms?

“Short term bad long term good” is a convenient argument for management in a dispute with shareholders. It allows them to discard the objective measure of their performance in favor of speculation. Ignore the years of stagnant growth and keep paying each of us millions, says management! Our plan is a long-term one, you see.

ajzinsbwbs··on New Cobalt-free Li-ion battery reduces costs with similar design and performance
Unfortunately there’s a long history of colonized people being mistreated, so it’s not an easy sell.
ajzinsbwbs··on The abolition of mandatory retirement, and how it changed America (2011)
The strategy of asking the oldest employee for advice has worked well for me at Home Depot.
ajzinsbwbs··on OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin
I think you only need language to communicate, it’s not necessary in order to think. Do you agree that a human that grows up in isolation probably won’t develop a language? Would you say such a human isn’t sentient?

I think as highly social beings we often annotate all of our thoughts with the language we could use to communicate them, which could lead us to believe that the thoughts are indistinguishable from the language, but that conclusion seems like an error to me. I’ve also heard some people talk about how they are “visual” or “geometric” thinkers and sometimes think in terms of images and structures without words.

ajzinsbwbs··on UFO VPN claims zero-logs policy, leaks 20M user logs
My government, along with any other entity with lawyers, can obtain my browsing history from my ISP as evidence that is admissible in civil or criminal court by submitting some paperwork. They can’t do that with my VPN traffic, even if some government spooks are secretly running the VPN. The NSA is not going to burn their operation to help the MPAA fine me.
ajzinsbwbs··on On eve of bankruptcy, US firms shower executives with bonuses
I don’t understand what you are proposing as an alternative. If the company dies who is going to take care of the employees? Lay off everyone because it would be wrong to only save some? If everyone makes that noble choice all we get to show for it is a depression.
ajzinsbwbs··on Data structures and algorithms I actually used while working at tech companies
What if qualities you might judge in an interview other than “general IQ” and “grit” are even more bias-prone, and using those other qualities is actually worse than measuring “general IQ” and “grit” and applying a corrective factor?

In other words, I’d rather work with a disadvantaged person who may appear rough around the edges but made it this far and has the “general IQ” and “grit” to do well on the programming problem, than the preppy white kid who has a lifetime of experience preparing for the task of exuding status and competency when answering behavioral questions or engineering case studies, but lacks the “general IQ” and “grit” to solve the programming problem.

ajzinsbwbs··on Data structures and algorithms I actually used while working at tech companies
How to filter out candidates who are only good at talking? I’ve worked with people like that and it’s miserable.
ajzinsbwbs··on The AirPods Pro “Rattlegate”
In order to get the replacement, I needed to know the serial number of the AirPods but didn’t need to provide any proof of purchase (I wasn’t the original buyer of the AirPods). This suggests to me that anyone who can get AirPod serial numbers could get free AirPods sent to them by contacting customer service. Absent the credit card hold, it seems like a good way to steal a lot of AirPods. I would guess at Apple’s scale, someone probably has done this scheme in the past so they need to find a way to prevent it (even if it never happened with AirPods, it probably happened with iPhones). Asking for the credit card hold upfront is a little unfriendly, but a lot better than dealing with a bunch of anti-fraud/collections work. It’s also much more friendly than requiring the customer to send in the broken AirPods first to get a replacement (this is the most common repair service I’ve experienced from other manufacturers, and it’s painful enough that I usually just try to fix the thing myself or throw it away).

I’d say the credit card/mailing method is also not Apple’s preferred means of exchange - it’s the backup for when the Apple Store is unavailable. At the store you hand them the AirPods when you get your replacement so there’s no need to provide a deposit.

ajzinsbwbs··on The AirPods Pro “Rattlegate”
This happened to me four times in four months. Every time, it appeared one of the microphones was broken, because I would hear a buzzing, rattling, or clicking noise when in transparency or noise-canceling mode. The current set have both been good for a two or three months.

At least Apple has great service. When the Apple store was open I could just walk over there and get the broken AirPod swapped in minutes. After lockdown I needed to call Apple support and get them to mail me one, which would take a few days to show up.

ajzinsbwbs··on The stock market and economy have parted ways
If you shorted BTC halfway to its peak, and managed not to get closed out, you’d be breaking even right now.
ajzinsbwbs··on I Have Cancer. Now My Facebook Feed Is Full of ‘Alternative Care’ Ads
Could be that some pyramid scheme victims aren’t good at targeting the ads when they try to recruit people? So they just overbid for generic ad slots.
ajzinsbwbs··on Target’s gig workers will strike to protest switch to algorithmic pay model
Do you know any Uber drivers or are you just being paternalistic? I have friends who do Uber, Lyft, Postmates and they are definitely aware of the costs and take steps to optimize them where possible. They need to calculate mileage to do their taxes. They aren’t idiots. There’s a community of drivers and they talk about this stuff.
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