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anthony_r

531 karma · joined December 29, 2019

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anthony_r··on Microsoft Is Dead (2007)
So they had poor search results? Didn't know how to sell ads well? What was wrong with it? You haven't provided arguments.
anthony_r··on Microsoft Is Dead (2007)
Always funny to read predictions that aged poorly :)

For people that think they can foresee the future of "tech" or whatever else: tell me how around 2000-2004 anyone could have foreseen that Yahoo Search will be completely smashed by Google Search. I mean how could anyone come to a facts-based conclusion that would draw today's picture (Yahoo essentially bankrupt, Google one of the most profitable companies in the world).

anthony_r··on Preliminary Incident Statement
In particular you cannot provide an internal SLA on write requests to low-level storage solutions if you can't guarantee that you actually have the spare disks.

The SLA would have to be something like "we guarantee 99.999% write availability unless team A or team B or team C makes a mistake", so now you have to look up what team A and B and C are up to and what do they guarantee. Instead of the more sensible "we guarantee 99.999% write availability unless you are out of quota".

anthony_r··on Big Tech is getting cozy with computer science departments
You're spot on. My alma mater has had Google and the likes come to the campus for over a decade now.

Also, I see nothing wrong with that, at the same time there was plenty of room for "pure research" into even the most obscure corners of theoretical CS and maths.

anthony_r··on Swiss report reveals new details on CIA spying operation
You think that losing 80 jobs is really the biggest problem here?
anthony_r··on Banks, QE, and Money-Printing
Housing prices are long term "bound" by CPI, not the other way around. More specifically they have always mean reverted to CPI if you look few hundred years back. Robert Shiller wrote a lot on this topic.

Also, the current level of divergence between housing prices and CPI is nothing out of the ordinary. It will correct itself over time (either houses will become cheap or CPI will catch up).

If you want a simple explanation as to why it is that CPI bounds houses and not the other way around - just look at the recent post-covid deurbanization trend (and the carnage that's going on in San Francisco or New York real estate markets). There's so much land that can be utilised once you understand that you really don't have to be in downtown New York. Then, homebuilding costs are basically CPI.

anthony_r··on Six months in, N95 mask shortages persist
Is anyone tracking the current spot price of N95 masks on a chart?

Would need a true price, i.e. what do you have to pay if you have no "special powers" like a hospital. Spot as close as is reasonable, maybe with 1 week delivery; I am assuming that the forward curve is still in backwardation. That would be the best tracker of shortage. The curve itself would be interesting, if it ever flips to contango without spot going meaningfully down that'd mean serious problems (nobody expects capacity increase).

anthony_r··on Web Performance Profiling: Google.com
There's also flash, which is also pretty fast, and fits nicely between magnetic and RAM.

Here's a handy rule of thumb about relative costs: the cost of a byte on magnetic_disk:flash:ram is about 1:10:100. I.e. the cost increases 10x when you go to the next level.

anthony_r··on Web Performance Profiling: Google.com
This reminds me of that joke video about replacing MongoDB with /dev/null. Look at the write speeds! /dev/null is web scale!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2F-DItXtZs

anthony_r··on Web Performance Profiling: Google.com
Nothing special about it, it's just another round-trip that you'd have to make.

There's also the statistical impact of many round-trips: imagine a network where 1% of connections take 1 second, while 99% take 1 milisecond. If you issue > 100 request then most page loads will be slow.

anthony_r··on Ask HN: I'm a terrible developer, what now?
Impostor syndrome etc..

Also, who are you to judge that you're not good enough? As long as you are employed or employable that does in fact mean you're good enough.

anthony_r··on Staff Report on Algorithmic Trading in U.S. Capital Markets [pdf]
Never forget that ETFs are only really possible due to HFT. Most ETF users do not even realise this, unless they ask themselves "how do ETFs actually work", and they start reading about Authorized Participants.
anthony_r··on Anatomy of a Bubble – Tesla and Bitcoin
One thing to remember, Elon will not stop promising impossible things. Why people still believe that [Mexico will pay for the wall] is beyond me.

http://elonmusk.today/

anthony_r··on Hartree-Fock on a superconducting qubit quantum computer
My point is that it's irrelevant at this point, as those machines do not yet exist. The existing experimental setups and theoretical models are most closely related to boolean circuits (vs a Turning machine or a RAM machine or lambda calculus or whatever is your favourite computation model). But you can still show gains on some sets of problems (like integer factorisation).
anthony_r··on Hartree-Fock on a superconducting qubit quantum computer
Thanks for the link, it does seem interesting.

> What Von Nuemann algorithm can I put on this?

I am very far from asking this question, thinking about the memory architecture is far too detailed here :). If anything it's about P vs BQP. Or probably even more so about heuristics and approximate algorithms, as in practice that's what is used for hard problems.

anthony_r··on Hartree-Fock on a superconducting qubit quantum computer
There's pretty good understanding on how quantum mechanics works (for decades), and you can easily write theoretical algorithms for such computers. It can be all expressed with matrix multiplications. See Shor's algorithm for an example.
anthony_r··on Hartree-Fock on a superconducting qubit quantum computer
Yes, this is what I'm thinking too might be the killer feature. But specifically - what would be easier to simulate?
anthony_r··on Hartree-Fock on a superconducting qubit quantum computer
I cannot find the answer to this anywhere: what algorithms will we actually use the quantum computers for?

Please skip Shor's algorithm, I understand this part. What else is there?

anthony_r··on SpaceX Starlink average speedtest is 42.3Mbps down / 9.7 Mbps up
The bigger question is what's the total capacity that is shared by a single neighborhood/city. For example - does this mean that a small city can only use 42Mbps down across all receivers?
anthony_r··on The tragic physics of the deadly explosion in Beirut
The speed of sound in pretty much any solid (or liquid) body is much faster than in the air. That's why the earthquake came first, and it was probably the earthquake that caused the 2. noises.
anthony_r··on Trump gives Microsoft 45 days to clinch TikTok deal
What a shitshow.
anthony_r··on Apple reports Q3 results
Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash ?

I prefer to believe that stocks are not in a bubble of such epic proportions that a stupid split can be an "event".

anthony_r··on Apple reports Q3 results
Ah yes, selling volatility via covered calls. The institutional investors' second favourite way of collecting "extra income" in the zero rates world, second only to explicit leverage.

Some of them sold much more volatility, via variance swaps, with quite disastrous results.

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1lffwvwdh7xtq...

anthony_r··on Apple reports Q3 results
There is no such thing as "split price". You get 4 shares for each share you previously owned, and it's up to the market to resume trading at a new level. It's a non-event, really, except it makes some operations easier.
anthony_r··on Markets, Rent and WFH
Every single metric points to low returns, probably even negative over the next 5-10 years: CAPE, average investor allocation to stocks vs bonds, bond yields themselves, market cap / GDP, basic demographics. That is all without even considering covid and the response to covid.
anthony_r··on Guy Who Reverse-Engineered TikTok Reveals the Scary Things He Learned
The worst part about this is that it does not require GDPR consent because it is genuinely necessary to store such client data (to detect fake accounts). Same as you don't need GDPR compliance to store someone's address in an online store just to deliver a package to them.

PS. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

anthony_r··on Brazilian authorities suspend WhatsApp payments
And you're 100% sure that this is not just currency controls because the Brazilian Real is getting killed? From what I can tell - Brazil is going to Argentina, quickly :(
anthony_r··on Ask HN: How are you holding up?
Pissed off at work. The workload is up since pre-Corona, management says "do more with less". All of this in addition to the work-unrelated stress.
anthony_r··on Hertz SEC Filing: Up to $500M Common Stock
Examples? I thought it's very very rare.
anthony_r··on Hertz SEC Filing: Up to $500M Common Stock
Oh really, I thought it's super rare (like this filling strongly suggests). What are some examples?
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