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antr

20,933 karma · joined July 14, 2011

energy investor who fell in love with tech

antr at hmamail dot com

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antr··on The Growing Compute Shortage
That's possible, but it's still an argument about Apollo's incentives rather than the thesis itself. By all means scrutinize anyone talking their book, but then show where the analysis is wrong. Otherwise we've moved from “Apollo is conflicted” to “Apollo must be wrong because it invested,” which is not much of an argument.
antr··on The Growing Compute Shortage
So Apollo believes in the thesis strongly enough to put billions of its own capital behind it. That sounds more like putting their money where their mouth is than a rebuttal.
antr··on DOE: Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Virtual Power Plants
I’ll say something unpopular, but the best VPP alternative out there is the transmission system operator (doing its job well).

VPPs are a great way for utilities and other companies to get customers hooked into long-term contracts and milk for more fees.

antr··on Air pollution greatest global threat to human health, says benchmark study
Because the 0.1% all live in Dhaka, Bangladesh[1].

[1] https://www.iqair.com/world-air-quality-ranking

antr··on Chile to Nationalize Lithium Industry
If you scratch the surface of the article you will realise that the biggest loser is Chile. This draconian law, if anything, will make investing in lithium production unattractive, regardless where in the value chain one invests.
antr··on Accenture would cut 19,000 jobs
1% change in revenue can result in a material deviation in net income and cash flow
antr··on Spain will introduce free train travel
Putting aside the absurd attack labeling my argument as pro-car (don't own one by the way), I'll I'm saying is that public transport ain't cheap nor free, and has a cost. You can cover your eyes, be against x or y, but that won't stop things from being different.
antr··on Spain will introduce free train travel
The problem with "free or extremely cheap transportation" is that it's neither free nor cheap. It's expensive and paid for by tax payers through constant budget deficits and debt issuance that will indebt future generations.
antr··on Europe’s heatwave is forcing nuclear power plants to shut down (2018)
Article from 2018
antr··on Celsius: how one of crypto’s biggest lenders ground to a halt
https://archive.ph/fupUJ
antr··on ECB: A failure of Tether may pose a threat to the stability of crypto-asset [pdf]
Page 45 of the Financial Stability Review, May 2022:

Market volatility also expanded into crypto-asset markets. Bitcoin lost 50% of its value (versus the US dollar), and stresses emerged in markets for stablecoins. While a number of stablecoins lost their peg against the US dollar, broader financial stability risks remain limited. At the same time, the implications of stresses on stablecoin Tether could be significant for the crypto-asset ecosystem. A failure of Tether may pose a threat to the stability of crypto-asset markets, as it provides a substantial amount of trading liquidity for buying and selling of other crypto-assets. A run on Tether could disrupt trading and price discovery in crypto-asset markets, which could turn disorderly. Contagion effects for the broader financial system arising from a potential “crypto crash” still seem limited, although individual investors may suffer significant losses.

antr··on Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company
> ... consent of its executives...

*sigh*

antr··on Why Nuclear Power, Not Renewables, Is the Path to Low-Carbon Energy (2020)
Attacking the author instead of attacking the argument?
antr··on IRS records reveal how the wealthiest avoid income tax

    >> If it is income, wealth tax, capital or some new form, the outcome has been clear.
In 1980 the US Govt collected $517 billion in taxes ($1.68 trillion in 2020 terms). In 2020 this number was $3.71 trillion. So then, the US Govt is collecting over 2.2x in taxes and inequality keeps getting worst.

How can it be that with more tax revenues, people are worst off?

antr··on IRS records reveal how the wealthiest avoid income tax
It's disappointing to see how these sort of articles mix "wealth growth" (i.e. a paper gain such as the increase in the value of your house), with income tax. How easy it is to mislead people to take a side on the rich vs poor politically-driven fight.
antr··on How to Start a New Country
Indeed, the Catalan referendum was fake.

Among the main irregular procedures include:

  1. there are opaque ballot boxes,
  2. there are no official ballots or envelopes, 
  3. the electoral census is hosted on online servers, 
  4. there is no electoral board, and
  5. there is no counting system.
Definition of coup.
antr··on How to Start a New Country
I'm afraid that what you call "vote" was a staged and manipulated process, without a voter census, and no oversight by any Election Authority.

This is the point, it was staged as a democratic event, but it was quite the contrary.

antr··on How to Start a New Country
I'm failing to see how those genuine matters relate to a coup perpetrated by a minority of (privileged) citizens.
antr··on How to Start a New Country
You tell me how those who do not want independence "benefits unnecessarily" from such. Curious to know what civil liberties those who seek independence are being taken away from them.
antr··on How to Start a New Country
Your "Texas vs. Federal Government" argument is weak:

    1. The local Catalan parliament is not above any national law. Your argument reminds me of the Texas Government vs any US Govt.
    2. The pro-independence seats in parliament in Catalonia is a voter minority... in Catalonia. Check your math.
antr··on How to Start a New Country
Said the the tax evader.
antr··on How to Start a New Country
What's your point?

If you want the laws changed, vote for a party that legitimately changes the law through the defined channels (congress, senate, etc).

However, if you break the law, be prepared to suffer the consequences.

antr··on How to Start a New Country
The 2017 event in Catalonia was a slow-motion, low-cost coup d’etat, dressed as a democratic movement, and an event the European Union already warned was illegal. The result is that second-tier Catalan politicians and activists are now in jail.
antr··on Apple’s renewable energy projects are helping to create 1.2GW of clean power
Hinkley Point C != All nuclear plants.

If you state this fallacy you should at least tell everyone the unique geological issues HPC is facing.

antr··on Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA
The price of electricity is not only generation cost, which represent c. 30% of your total energy bill.
antr··on Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA
It's not about being dispatchable or not, it' about the volatility renewable generation and the problem this generates... and how other non-renewables need to be called by the TSO.
antr··on Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA
I was just going to say this. This is what many people do not understand, it's "the cheapest" technology but the cost of the necessary ancillary services, balancing mechanism, FFR, inertia, etc., to make this happen is not baked into the LCOE models. That's how shortsighted this sort of messages are.
antr··on USV Climate Fund
USV jumping on the ESG bandwagon. LPs want/need to deploy capital into ESG, and USV is creating a fund to channel that excess liquidity. They will probably mask climate-related investments, with pure tech investments. Very much replicating what other funds have done, but really not making an impact in this space. Nonetheless, for USV this is more AUMs, more fees. On returns, time will tell.
antr··on Coinbase hits number 30 in the top free apps on Apple's mobile store
On Tesla, like any other publicly traded business, cashflow is the value driver. Fundamentals end up catching up with valuations.
antr··on UK and EU agree Brexit trade deal
Your comment is the exact definition of a false premise: the use of an incorrect proposition (Catalonia is or was a country) that forms the basis of an argument (the EU doesn't like countries becoming independent).
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