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arzt

541 karma · joined July 23, 2014

working on tlon.io
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arzt··on Cronje Quits Crypto, Abandons Fantom, Yearn Finance
Source?
arzt··on Apple’s longtime supplier accused of using forced labor in China
I am not sure I understand this argument. The article states the "laborers" in question are given a choice as follows: submit to unpaid forced labor else go to a CCP reeducation camp. Nowhere is it stated those subjected to this choice have the opportunity to take advantage of rising living standards.
arzt··on Breaking Down Lululemon's $500M Mirror Acquisition
Because lulu is judged on earnings and mirror is effectively a saas company that needs to achieve breakaway scale to own its market. My hunch is lulu doesn't have the stomach for the cost of acquisition required to get mirror there.
arzt··on Battle of Alesia
Great books to start:

- Rubicon by Tom Holland - SPQR by Mary Beard - Dynasty by Tom Holland - Caesar by Adrian Goldsworthy (more of a bio on Julius C, a bit drier than the above, has section on Alesia)

arzt··on “Snowcrash” to be HBO series, compete with actual early Metaverses for viewers
I remember reading the opening few pages and chuckling out loud:

“Why is the Deliverator so equipped? Because people rely on him. He is a roll model. This is America. People do whatever the fuck they feel like doing, you got a problem with that? Because they have a right to. And because they have guns and no one can fucking stop them. As a result, this country has one of the worst economies in the world. When it gets down to it—talking trade balances here—once we've brain-drained all our technology into other countries, once things have evened out, they're making cars in Bolivia and microwave ovens in Tadzhikistan and selling them here—once our edge in natural resources has been made irrelevant by giant Hong Kong ships and dirigibles that can ship North Dakota all the way to New Zealand for a nickel—once the Invisible Hand has taken all those historical inequities and smeared them out into a broad global layer of what a Pakistani brickmaker would consider to be prosperity—y'know what? There's only four things we do better than anyone else:

music, movies, microcode (software), high-speed pizza delivery”

arzt··on The making of Jim Simons
I wonder if anyone has insight into how they have been able to do this consistently in the modern era of quantitative trading (this article had scant detail)? His returns are such an outlier and strategies such a closely guarded secret that they leave people on Wall Street in awe.
arzt··on Juul Shipped At Least 1M Contaminated Pods, New Lawsuit Says
Contaminated with what?
arzt··on $15 minimum wage didn’t hurt NYC restaurants
Anecdotally I have to agree. Having lived in Manhattan for the past decade, I have seen more restaurants close in the last two years than the previous eight. Most of lower Manhattan's retail footprint is filled with chains (Starbucks etc) rather than neighborhood restaurants.
arzt··on Tether: The Story So Far
"Players in the crypto ecosystem will be shocked, shocked to know it got this bad, this quickly, but this has been an open secret for over a year."

----

I'm not entirely in agreement the crypto world will be shocked tether is insolvent. As long the the fiat gateways exist to exit the system with gains intact, most could care less about tether. It's musical chairs.

arzt··on Tests show bootleg marijuana vapes tainted with hydrogen cyanide
Agree - which is why I think blanket legalization with heavy federal regulation would be a best case scenario for all the reasons you point out.
arzt··on Tests show bootleg marijuana vapes tainted with hydrogen cyanide
Myclobutanil is a fungicide that cannabis growers use to prevent mildew. Traces of it being found in oil indicate something needs to be done to prevent its usage at the growth, storage, and transport stage of the supply chain. This is probably more easily done if Marijiuana is legalized federally and heavily regulated. Given that would take an act of Congress, I fear that sweeping vaping regulation will kill the industry, robbing combustible cigarette users of a much safer alternative to nicotine delivery.
arzt··on Juul Labs CEO to Step Down
Vitamin E acetate and myclobutanil are the most likely culprits. Myclobutanil is a fungicide that cannabis growers use to prevent mildew. It also turns into cyanide when heated.

Speculation: State governments are leveraging the hysteria to slow a loss in excise tax revenue stemming from the decline in combustible cigarette use.

arzt··on The United States Will Miss China’s Money
Why aren’t policy experts and the media asking what local/global benefit would emerge from a democratic China? Why, given its past history promoting democracy, isn’t the United States, advocating for regime change in China?
arzt··on NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War
From the glimmers of info we do have about these things, most situations that involve them we either don't know about or involve brinksmanship. See here for reference: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2016/02/massive-us-plann...
arzt··on Cases of Vaping-Related Lung Illness Surge, Health Officials Say
It would seem appropriate to caveat the fact in the headline that the vast majority of these cases were vaping with THC related products (although a majority had used a nicotine related product as well, exclusively nicotine related cases are much fewer).
arzt··on The Death of Alexander the Great: One of History's Great Unsolved Mysteries
A recent study was published suggesting he died of Guillain-Barré Syndrome, an auto-immune disease, which would have paralyzed him and would have explained his inability to move or speak. Interestingly, his body did not begin decomposing until 6 days after his death.

https://ancienthistorybulletin.org/downloads/katherine-hall-...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190122115006.h...

arzt··on Facebook plans cryptocurrency debut
CoinFace?
arzt··on Ask HN: What books changed the way you think about almost everything?
Complexity by Mitchell Waldrop. An exploration of complex adaptive systems and emergence and how they relate to everything around us changed my worldview permanently.
arzt··on Instacart paying 80 cents an hour because worker received a large tip
I would like to see this corrected.
arzt··on Satoshi Nakamoto made a post after years of silence?
For the sake of the entire space, I'd hope this belief was whispered about in darker corners than HN ;)
arzt··on MoviePass couldn’t afford to pay for movie tickets on Thursday
Terms here:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1040792/000121390018...

arzt··on MoviePass couldn’t afford to pay for movie tickets on Thursday
No, this is what's termed an "Original Issue Discount" in debt parlance and allows for a lender to earn interest without a cash coupon on the loan. Basically they give them $5mm, but the "par value" of the loan is $6.2mm. So MP actually owes $6.2mm, but only got $5mm in cash up front.
arzt··on America's Startup Scene Is Looking Anemic
There is no reason to stab in the dark re: a cause. Wealth concentration is the cause. Break up the big 4 and you will cause a massive wealth redistribution by the unleashing competition that has been stifled in tech.
arzt··on American tech giants are making life tough for startups
Please, for the sake of all that is holy, let's not let Coinbase get sold to Facebook.
arzt··on Amazon Offers Retailers Discounts to Adopt Payment System
Increasing returns in action.
arzt··on Ask HN: Why does P2P encrypted messaging still suck?
mainframe is attacking this issue https://mainframe.com/
arzt··on The invisibility of Sheryl Sandberg
Does that matter? The author is speaking on behalf of the shareholders (pension funds, mutual funds etc) who are supposed to be fiduciaries to clients that expect their funds to be invested responsibly (read hyperbolically as: not in companies that in any way threaten democracy). Sandberg architected the FB revenue model and as such should probably give reassurance that money will keep flowing to Facebook.
arzt··on Regulation could protect Facebook, not punish it
In investment parlance the government would build them a moat. Companies with capital to maintain compliance will have a head start on any startup looking to unseat them. Should this come, it will be a lot harder to start a startup.
arzt··on ‘The Trains Are Slower Because They Slowed the Trains Down’
More importantly, they used the overcrowding excuse as a means to raise $800mm+ from New York taxpayers. If this capital wasn't necessary given the problems they cited were non-existent, this amounts to fraud.
arzt··on Moviepass pulls support for some AMC theaters
Moviepass is likely running negative gross margins on those expensive urban theaters and this is a hardball tactic to get AMC to the negotiating table to bring those visit costs down. It is a risky move given the Moviepass provides no other direct value to the theaters outside of demand aggregation (putting aside the data play). Given the theater business is somewhat of an oligopoly, we may see the theaters react by consolidating (through partnerships, or outright) in order to increase supplier power. This will be an interesting story to watch as the conflict plays out.
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