automatic6131

>If your dishwasher costs 20 quid for a single run

That's the electricity cost for 1 year of operation.

There is only one 500W GPU and those owners are cost insensitive so we can ignore them.

A more realistic number is 400-500W total power for the whole PC including the monitor. If a typical UK gamer spends 3 hours gaming every single day (or averages that, so 20 hours a week), they will add... £150 to their energy bills.

Lets compare that with two loads of laundry & tumble drying per week on eco mode (2 * 3.5kwh * £0.30 * 52) which is £110

or using a dishwasher twice a week: £40

It is not very much. And it's not subject to random licensing bait&switch, data center input lag, doesn't require the expensive monthly internet charges for the faster fiber tiers because you're streaming video data constantly, and you also have a PC to do with as you wish.

People are right to have an instinctive, emotional revulsion to game streaming. You can run the numbers and find a rational revulsion also.

No it isn't lmao, it's coming for the rote, statistically average part of a job. It can't do the unexpected. While it has turned out that the unexpected is way, way smaller than many presupposed, it remains true. And if it did take over all information jobs, that would be the end of LLM improvement, forever. Hapsburg, model degeneration, whatever.

Obviously, we don't move in a direction of agent-to-agent flow because it's fundamentally flawed and worse than the status quo

Jensen Huang gets red in the face and tight in the pants thinking about all these institutions running infinity agents in a red queen's race for the status quo

As a factory game vet, it's always fun to see how the big daddy factorio primes first time players in the other factory games, and you see main busses in Satisfatory (which is sub optimal because the limiting factor is belt transport capacity), and Dyson Sphere Program (viable in the early game before drone logistics, but only in the arctic poles, and irrelevant later on).

Obviously, this main bus pattern does _work_ in all the games, if sufficiently dedicated, as does having no pattern at all, if sufficiently bloody minded (johnson) about it.

I'm going to have to remember this, gold comment

You are too civilized: I recommend threatening drop kicks to insufficiently smart rebuttlers.

The people building, funding, and managing the builders of these tools have completely forgotten (if they ever knew) that most people treat one hundred dollars carefully.

To the, "oh I'd just setup a card/account with a five figure limit" completely unaware of how much that is to a typical person: even to responsible, educated people who are doing everything "right": working hard, without expensive vices, and planning for the future.

The "builders" have so much money and no time or attention that it's hard for them to spend it, which is why they keep trying to get AI to buy stuff for them, whereas those of us who live in reality have far more things they want than dollars to buy them with.

The limiting factor of development (for money) is good ideas, or valuable ideas. If you have 5 features you want, but only time in a month for 2, then that forces you to choose the best 2, which come with the tech debt, support and opportunity cost.

Removing the opportunity cost doesn't eliminate the other two costs of a feature

If Astra is AGI, then GPT 4 was AGI too. There's no qualitative difference. It can write poetry and role play with you, and code snippets, and you can run those code snippets if they're in bash format and boom, you have an agent.

But if that's AGI then it's a meaningless term; it's just a martketing gimmick. Which is entirely my point.

AGI hasn't arrived, all we have is Artifical General Marketing

I can tolerate Teams being a bit mid because the core functionality nearly always works. I can tolerate Outlook being meh because it's doing a lot (nothing I, a lowly IC really need though I can imagine the top hatted boss who does) and I think it does okay with the scope it's tackling.

But the M365 copilot app is inexcusable for being as core to Microslop's strategy.

It's such a broken POS. Code snippets, especially for html, frequently don't render, or if they do, they render as rendered html which will frequently be an empty box, and you have to manually (for each snippet box) switch to show code mode.

Trillion dollar industry btw.

Jevon's paradox isn't a physical law, it doesn't magically apply to everything. Millions more copies of Atari's ET game didn't cause everyone to pickup a cheap copy, and cause extra demand for a garbage video game. Some times (actually, usually, I'd argue) things are made that will sell for less than the cost of construction because of irrationality, and they don't induce extra demand and they don't change the negative profit margins.

You can't simply wave Jevon's paradox at things. Thousands of miles of canals were dug in the UK that couldn't be sustained and were abandoned. Thousands of miles of railways were laid that could be sustained and were abandoned. And those are potentially durable investments, unlike cheap walls, pillars and roofs laid over a levelled concrete slab full of fast depreciating IT equipment.

>We are likely to see LLMs running locally at current frontier-quality on commodity hardware in the next 3-6 years

Yeah okay bud, anyone checked in with the state of consumer hardware recently? Not the author, evidently.

>oh in 3-6 years this will all be over

Yeah I'm sure Samsung, Nvidia and sk hynix will all be very calm with lower volumes and lower margins.

There's been multiple YouTubers saying they've been paid recently to make... AI Doomerism videos (e.g. Sabine).

I imagine this is simply part of the campaign, AI doomerism followed by AI Bloomerism, it could even be part of the same organisation's campaign; selling the solution to a problem they put in your mind. Hype, criti-hype, it's all so tiresome.

> people writing in a non native language This category of people are going to be most betrayed by LLM output: 1) the receiver loses the signal that the sender might need to be queried to find their real intent and 2) the sender doesn't have the ability to determine if what they are sending is what they mean

> people insecure in their writing These people can grow up, I don't care. Not a good enough reason to send a slop grenade.

>people not used to writing in industry terms Similar to the non-native speakers, but slightly less in magnitude. They can educate themselves though.

- people with the curse of knowledge that are aware that they can’t write for a general audience well These people probably can get some value out of it but they should take care

Still not really a good enough reason in the end

Btw calorically dense foods are, in fact, hyper nutritious. While you may imagine healthy foods to be green vegetables and raw meats, you can buy - from regular supermarkets - roast chickens ready to eat, salad bowls and fresh fruit. You need not even store it, but buy and eat on the go.

People repeat the myth that healthy food choices are expensive (they aren't) and time & space consuming to make (they can be) so often that most people believe it. But it just isn't so: you can eat at McDonalds every day, and if it's only a part of your diet, it's healthy. If you can get fibre and some vitamins elsewhere, and aren't overeating, the protein and calories in a fries and a hamburger are fine. Good, actually.

Healthy foods are simply principally marketed to, sold at a large markup to, middle to upper class Americans so they believe that's the usual market value.

Now, it can be expensive in time, effort and equipment for struggling, hard working, irregular shift workers. That's a different issue though.

That's the solution the parent commenter had! And the gay furry (self identified) complained about! If you have a problem with his announcing the solution (to stop reading) then maybe you should just not read his comment, or my comment, or...

Gavin: I don't want to live in a world where anyone makes a bigger boulder than Hooli does.

I don't want to hear about it: yours, hers (Aella) and I'm certainly not going to tell you what my deal is, either.

Problem is, Aella has made it her business to speak about it publicly, and the parent commenter(and I)'d be happier if we didn't read about it. It's fine to say that.

I'm not hung up about anything others are doing: but I genuinely, passionately, don't want to be informed about it.

HackerNews is Gell-Mann amnesia that refreshes on every comment on every thread.

>Also, I’m really unimpressed by any “one shot” demo that’s out there in the wild. It means nothing for serious software engineering.

If a person, or team of people, can build a demo quickly then it's good odds that they can build the real version (though, famously, not a guarantee). However, it turns out that a machine that can spit out 100 demos of whatever can't actually build the real thing.

Similarly, a chess engine rated to 1000 Elo doesn't play like a 1000 rated human being. The mistakes that each make to reach the equivalent level are different in size, frequency and kind. The thing that makes a human reach a good demo is very close to the skillset to reach the finished article. This isn't so for LLMs but we have yet to update our priors.

I think McEnroe was very unfair, and that men and women can be completely equal in technique and skill, even if not in physicality. But in my opinion, the women's game is what you watch if you want _even more_ tennis, or perhaps you really like the story lines of your favorite athletes for whatever reason. Similar to watching Formula 1 is just being a regular sports fan, but watching the Formula 2 season marks you as a slightly obsessive motorhead.

One of my favorite delusions is that men are only better at sports than women because they are socialized to be so from a young age - that if women & girls were encouraged to be strong, fast and competitive; and if boys were scolded or perhaps asked nicely to play... board games or roleplay or whatever, then there'd be an inverse. Oh, and this delusion is comorbid with the idea that the reason sports are segregated by sex is so that men aren't embarrassed when they are beaten by women.

What's fun about both of these delusions is that they are easily disproven by even mild contact with reality. Any level of sports training with a member of the opposite sex disproves this with incredible speed. You can read social media comments from women about the first time they wrestled or playfought their mostly inactive boyfriend for the first time, and asked them not to hold back. And this doesn't even need them to engage in any kind of sport.

To hold this, you have to wilfully, intentionally dodge all physical activities with the opposite sex from schooling to your adult life. And yet, it does exist! I've met people who believe this, in the face of all reality. And then these sports-dodgers will have consequently wrong opinions on e.g. transwomen in sports, whether transmen should be allowed to take steroids and compete, equal pay in sports...

That said though, I could believe there's some crossover point in ultra-ultra endurance sports where performance equals out between the sexes.

>The intent is good, but it seems they're still in the "fake it until you make it" stage

Please notice the internal contradictions here.

Documentation clearly following Conway's law: shipping the org chart.

I suppose access journalism does have to get something out of the bargain, however small it's not zero. If that's the way you like to spend idle time, well it takes all kinds. I don't understand competitive scrabble either.

Semianalysis is an AI hype organisation, not a serious, unbiased semiconductor reviewer/journalist like chipsandcheese nor a documentarian of the semiconductor industry like Asianonmetry (as it relates so strongly to the modern economies of Asia). If you see something from semianalysis, you can simply ignore it.