1,015 karma · joined December 9, 2010
Imagine you have been locked inside a room. You are asked what the outside weather is. Assume you have to pick one of sunny, cloudy and rainy. You know it is July so you predict it is mostly sunny. (Because intuitively you know that the odds of "sunny" is more than the other two). [1]
Now you see that someone has entered the room carrying an umbrella. You are asked that question again. Of course you are going to update your answer based on the new information. Your previous odds calculation, while good, has to accommodate the umbrella factor -- a very solid piece of additional information. [2]
Before the umbrella happened all you knew was [1] and it is called Prior. After you saw the umbrella the odds are conditioned on the umbrella and it is called Posterior [2]. which is what you want. And you should definitely use your intuition about the weather too [1] which now goes to the right hand side of the equation.
So
Posterior = ( ) x Prior
This blank is called as Likelihood... it is the probability of umbrella given the weather.
Imagine you live in a place where the umbrella is used only during rain. So the likelihood of an umbrella given it is sunny is very very less and is going to make the product of Prior x Likelihood very less.
Whereas the likelihood of umbrella given it is rainy is almost certain. Even if your initial guess (prior) gives less odds to rain.. the product of likelihood x prior for rain is more than that of the previous paragraph product. You answer "rainy"
Of course there is more to it and I suggest reading other great explanations in this thread.
Personally, I'd make the candidate solve a decent intermediate level problem using a computer (and Google too). Give him/her the closest approximation of the typical job environment.
\Didn't read the article.
It seems Shanley interviewed with them initially and didn't get the job? Maybe, that's the start of the issue.
Yes, other companies are doing it but it's not the point of the article.
Democracy is probably the system which can do the least damage.
* Duck Typing - "If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck"
11. Never commit revisions which can't be built. (In the exceptional cases, always state in the commit message that the code doesn't build.)
But I'll say this -- Mathematicians are strange cats. My boss is one. His emails seem extremely rude but he's one of the nicest guys in person.