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babl-yc

848 karma · joined September 6, 2012

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babl-yc··on AI App Graveyard
Good points here.

I certainly see the opportunity for start-ups to break through here. I just don't have much faith in ones where GPT-4 is their core tech.

On the other hand, companies going after the entire vertical where AI is a feature and not the product, or well-funded companies with innovative models that outperform OpenAI is totally a possibility.

babl-yc··on AI App Graveyard
There are a ton of companies that are basically a wrapper around GPT-4 with some minimal amount of application code. These folks can create impressive demos that wow minimally informed investors, but the reality is that if it took a few weeks to make there's no defensibility.

I see the profits in the current AI hype cycle going to the leading foundational model company (why pay for the 2nd best?) and the companies that already own customer relationships and integrate AI into their existing products (Microsoft, Adobe, Autodesk, etc).

babl-yc··on Sam Bankman-Fried Convicted
Depends on how you define the word.

"Justice is the ethical, philosophical idea that people are to be treated impartially, fairly, properly, and reasonably by the law and by arbiters of the law, that laws are to ensure that no harm befalls another, and that, where harm is alleged, a remedial action is taken - both the accuser and the accused receive a morally right consequence merited by their actions"

https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/justice

babl-yc··on A shortage of teachers for computer science classes in California
AP Computer Science, at least as I remember it, was more of a Java programming course than a theoretical CS one.

And at my high school there was extreme variance in everyone's programming ability, which led to very little lecture time and mostly self-guided study.

Given that, there's probably some YouTube series with exercises that are more informative and enjoyable than most CS high school educators. Add in GPT-4 to answer the questions and let kids collaborate and you'd be set.

babl-yc··on We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets
I would expect they were already getting pressure from other cities to pause driverless rides, so they might as well pause on their own terms.
babl-yc··on California suspends Cruise's autonomous vehicle deployment
I’ve got 5+ rides with each platform and would agree with this assessment. Cruise rides generally have a few uncomfortable moments per ride with some erratic swerving or sudden unexplained stops.

Waymo rides feel much more predictable and human like.

Although note that “human like” and “smooth” rides do not necessarily mean safer, but qualitatively Waymo feels that way.

babl-yc··on California governor vetoes bill that would have set a $35 cap for insulin
Hardly any politician wins an election only considering their personal beliefs and ignoring that of their electorate.

It's pretty obvious he wants to run for President, so moving a bit to the right as opposed to what he'd do for a purely California political position makes sense.

babl-yc··on Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan’s War on San Francisco Politics Has Only Just Begun
San Francisco could add a ton of housing without adding super tall skyscrapers across the city. Maybe some YIMBYs want to Manhattanize SF but certainly not all of them.

Paris has a height limit of 12 stories for most parts of the city https://www.archdaily.com/1002165/paris-reimposes-the-ban-on...

Hopefully the San Francisco BoS does their part and approves reasonable housing so it's not purely up to developers with SB 35/423.

babl-yc··on Apple’s new Transformer-powered predictive text model
I disabled Gmail Smart Compose for this reason; I felt like it was putting words into my mouth suggesting entire sentences for the email.

I'm much more open to using transformers as a better auto-correct, where it's one word at a time and uses the first letter as a filter. Especially on a tiny phone keyboard on the go.

babl-yc··on SmartKnob – Haptic input knob with software-defined endstops and virtual detents
Apparently this and many other cool projects were demoed at Open Sauce in SF https://opensauce.live/
babl-yc··on Why San Francisco Is a Homeless Mecca
What's insane is that the injunction from a single judge will stand until at least April 2024 when the case is finally heard.

https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/federal-judge-refuses-to...

babl-yc··on GPTBot – OpenAI’s Web Crawler
GPT-4 finished training in August 2022, before the release of ChatGPT.

If they had announced this sooner hardly anyone on the internet would have noticed. Props to them for adding it now.

babl-yc··on S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’
The SF Chronicle has an unfortunate habit of headlines telling you "what to feel" as opposed to "what happened".
babl-yc··on Threads, an Instagram app
From my experience: - Feed was purely chronological (no algorithmic feed) so I missed a lot of content - Sign-up process isn't obvious due to decentralization - Likes, profiles sometimes had bugs or required extra clicks if from other servers - Few people I follow migrated from Twitter, and most have since stopped posting due to lack of engagement
babl-yc··on Threads, an Instagram app
The key thing for me is whether it's really a text focused app or they ruin it by trying to cross promote Instagram/Reels and turn it into a mindless time suck.

If they get the little details right, I see this as the only real competition to Twitter right now. After trying Mastodon for a few months, it's certainly not it.

babl-yc··on Supreme Court Opinion on Student Loan Forgiveness [pdf]
One can find arguments one either side as to whether or not the HEROES act made $430 billion in debt forgiveness legal by the Secretary of Education, but I can't see how in any way this was _obviously_ legal.

https://www.congress.gov/108/plaws/publ76/PLAW-108publ76.pdf

Biden made debt forgiveness part of his campaign strategy knowing it would be a difficult legal road, and he deserves some of the criticism for creating the expectation that debt would be erased at the risk of them being let down in the future.

babl-yc··on JupyterLab 4.0
VSCode Jupyter notebooks + Github Copilot is my favorite way to interact with notebooks. The autocomplete is super helpful for assisting with discovery of matplotlib or numpy operations.
babl-yc··on Apple announces multibillion deal with Broadcom to make components in the USA
I was interested in seeing the kind of job opportunities this would create. Especially after reading Chip War [1] which goes into the history of the offshoring and globalization of Fab processes.

Here are a few of the openings Broadcom's openings at the Fort Collins, CO site [2]:

- Material handler, Manufacturing operator: 12.25 hour shifts, 3-4 day work weeks, ~$19-25/hr. Night shift in higher demand

- General Mechanical Technician: $20-37/hr, alarm response a big component of role

- ASIC Digital Design Engineer, Fab Quality Engineer, R&D Software Engineer, Cleanroom facilities project manager: $78-150k + equity, BS/MS + related experience requirements

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Chip-War-Worlds-Critical-Technology/d... [2] https://broadcom.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/External_Career?locat...

babl-yc··on Apple Restricts Employee Use of ChatGPT, Joining Other Companies Wary of Leaks
FWIW I'd trust data security of Google+Bing over OpenAI in the short term.

OpenAI's product is extremely new and evolving quickly so it is way more vulnerable to to security vulnerabilities.

https://openai.com/blog/march-20-chatgpt-outage

babl-yc··on Apple dives into display-making to cut reliance on Samsung
Which step are you counting as "manufacture"? They will have a lot of partners here in the supply chain of this component; ams-Osram, LG, and TSMC according to the article.

In terms of Apple being "hands on" in manufacturing I don't see this as too different from the Apple Silicon case, where they design but work with partners in Taiwan+China to manufacture.

I see the big news here as "moving away from Samsung", where they would likely have to continue to invest in a competitor (money and IP) in order to get microLED technology through them.

babl-yc··on Chess is booming among teens
Speaking as someone who has gotten addicted to online chess in the past couple years, I think it's a combination of factors:

- Short time format makes for intense, fast paced games

- Starting a game only takes a few taps, and you can be done in a few minutes

- ELO ratings give you a number to obsess over improving, and online matching puts you against even opponents

- Instant post-game analysis

- Large amount of Twitch/Youtube content make it more fun to learn and follow the community

babl-yc··on Leaked deck raises questions over Stability AI’s Series A pitch to investors
Why did this post end up getting flagged? https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

I understand having critiques about the post, but stories about major AI companies fundraising seems on-topic.

babl-yc··on Mass layoffs and absentee bosses create a morale crisis at Meta
If you use it naively, yes. So can Google, or Wikipedia, or social media.

If you approach it as tool that generates answers that you try to validate yourself, it can help you learn the right things faster.

I approach every answer it gives with hesitation (as it hallucinates often) but it still generates useful content that is incredibly helpful nonetheless.

babl-yc··on Mass layoffs and absentee bosses create a morale crisis at Meta
I'm a paid DAU of ChatGPT. I'm using it regularly as a tutor to help work through a technical online course I'm taking, and it is extremely good at that. My cousin who is in college says basically every student is using it to help study.

There could be an excess of hype, but there is clear significant and immediate value of these tools.

babl-yc··on March 20 ChatGPT outage: Here’s what happened
I don't find it over-emphasized. Many in the Twitter-sphere are acting as if they aren't being appreciative of open source software and I don't see it that way.

The technical root cause was in the open source library. There's a patch available and more likely than not OpenAI will continue to use the library.

Being overly sensitive to blame would be distracting to the technical issue at hand. It's great they are posting this post-mortem to raise awareness that the libraries you use can have bugs and to consider that risk when building systems.

babl-yc··on GitHub Copilot X – Sign up for technical preview
(Software dev for 15+ years)

I'm using it for Typescript + NodeJS development. I find Copilot most valuable when it's something I'd need to Google anyway, like how to format a date string or how to do X in selenium. 8 out of 10 times the answer is right, and the other times it is at least interesting (gives me an idea of what to look for).

This quick feedback is _way_ faster than googling and keeps me in the IDE, and also just makes it more enjoyable to code when there is this "pair programming" partner that I can interact with via code/comments and it will generate ideas for me, even if they aren't all perfect.

babl-yc··on Stripe sets one-year timetable to decide on going public
I assume this is in part due to the 10 year expiration of ISOs? Stripe was founded in 2010.
babl-yc··on Apple to allow outside app stores in overhaul spurred by EU laws
I was curious what the added price on a $400 console would be if Sony couldn't guarantee a cut of game revenue, so here's some napkin math.

Avg 9.6 games sold per console [1] * $70 game * 30% take rate [2] =~ $200 additional.

Current pricing: $400 + $70/game Restructured pricing: $600 + $49/game

So it's more costs upfront, but not insanely more expensive. It would certainly change marketing and incentives though, if Sony made more money by selling consoles than continuing to extend the lifecycle of the current generation.

[1] https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2019/01/ps4_has_a_very_high_... [2] https://hypebeast.com/2022/8/sony-playstation-digital-games-...

babl-yc··on Apple to allow outside app stores in overhaul spurred by EU laws
How would this legislation impact game consoles?

Sony has a market cap of $100B and Microsoft is clearly above the €75 billion euro market cap discussed.

Perhaps incorrectly, I don't see that market needing this legislation. The consoles themselves are sold on razor thin margins and rely on game sales to generate profit. Game consoles are also more of an "entertainment" device vs a general use mobile computer.

babl-yc··on Replit Mobile App
Did anyone else learn to code on a TI-83+?

Although I doubt I'd use this in a professional setting, making coding accessible to more people sounds great to me.

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