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bdod6

56 karma · joined November 14, 2017

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bdod6··on The Reverse Flynn Effect
An even better post here on how the Flynn Effect and Reverse Flynn Effect was never real in the first place: https://www.cremieux.xyz/p/the-demise-of-the-flynn-effect
bdod6··on Launch HN: Risely (YC S25) – AI Agents for Universities
hi lancefit, you might be interested in looking at doowii.io as well. I'm the CEO, and you can email me at ben [at] doowii [dot] io
bdod6··on Ask HN: Who is hiring? (April 2024)
We are flexible depending on timezone
bdod6··on Ask HN: Recommend video streaming CDN service
Fastly
bdod6··on How ClickHouse saved our data (2020)
I don't understand the obsession with ClickHouse. While it seems like it fits this particular use case, it still deals with the same limitations and challenges of columnar DBs. Your queries will be very fast with counts/averages, but there's a tradeoff with other functions: inserts are efficient for bulk inserts only, your deletes and updates are slow, no secondary indexes...

While Clickhouse can be lightning fast, is it really designed to be a main backend database?

bdod6··on Mux (YC W16) raises $37M Series C as its developer video platform scales
Congrats team!
bdod6··on Statistics with Julia [pdf]
Can someone explain how this is more powerful than someone use an Python/R based workflow? E.g., I currently use a combination .ipynb, python scripts, and RStudio and this feels like it covers everything I need for any data science project.
bdod6··on Microsoft launches a drag-and-drop machine learning tool
I had this exact same thought when I read the headline. It seems like MS and others are viewing ML as a similar opportunity to Big Data/BI ten years ago. You saw the "democratization of data" as people with little technical skills could suddenly create analytics dashboards within tools like Tableau.

In my opinion, it's far too easy to make a critical mistake during design/implementation of ML to follow this same path. And what's more, if you mess up making an analytics dashboard, it's usually fairly obvious. In ML, there are MANY ways to mess up a model and you have no easy way to tell.

If someone doesn't have the technical experience behind creating these models, I would not trust any output they give me from using one of these tools. And if they do have the experience, they would certainly not be choosing to use one of these tools either.

bdod6··on India will overtake the US economy by 2030
A lot of that speculative growth comes from Turkey's comparatively younger population (hence more productive hours worked each day), and their continued population growth. Germany's demographics are sliding the other way, with an aging and stagnating population.
bdod6··on Amazon Pulls Out of Planned New York City Campus
Are you sure? 25,000 employees * 12 months * 1000 = 300 million in economic activity.

Obviously not all 25000 employees would get an extra 1k, but the point being...these things can scale significantly when you're talking about Amazon. It's not a trivial thing for SMBs to fill the void that Amazon is leaving.

bdod6··on Inside the Marriott-Starwood Loyalty Program Turbulence
The issue I'm having with this comparison is that you are equating the "nights stayed" with the points earned (the more accurate currency).

>They each have a rewards program which grants one free night for every night stayed.

It's a lot more fair to say for every $1000 spent, you have enough points to redeem a free night. In which case, some people might choose to spend more nights at the cheaper Fairfield Inn, and some might choose to stay fewer nights at the luxury Ritz. The bad money is not driving out the good.

It's true when it comes to qualifying nights, people will try to hit elite night requirements at cheaper properties. But that's not driving out the business for higher-end properties. Especially because award redemption is (mostly) based on how much you spend, not how many nights you stay.

bdod6··on Inside the Marriott-Starwood Loyalty Program Turbulence
This sounds like a misinterpretation of Gresham's Law. That's specifically talking about currency, which I suppose in this case would be the reward points. There is no "good" vs "bad" version of the currency though. Certain types of points are not driving other types of points out of circulation. The value of the points depends on how you use them, with people more eager to spend points on high-value redemptions.
bdod6··on Show HN: Hacking slot machines with a buttonhole camera and brute-force search
Mux wrote a blog post about this too: https://mux.com/blog/how-we-used-machine-learning-to-predict...

Using machine learning to parse text helps, but it's still not a perfect solution.

bdod6··on Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are driving 25,000 miles every day
ride sharing isn't exactly very profitable at the moment. I don't think the revenue would offset the additional engineering/product costs of just running the rideshare service, much less the cost of testing.
bdod6··on Better video quality through deep learning
Author here: please feel free to ask any questions/comments on our methodology. I designed the neural net, which is basically video classification mapped to bitrate-ladders. Interested in any feedback!
bdod6··on Sex differences in ability tilt in the right tail of cognitive abilities
For anyone interested in additional research and debate on this topic, I'd recommend watching Pinker and Spelke's excellent debate on Youtube. As some might remember, in 2005 Larry Summers was fired from Harvard for making similar comments regarding right tail cognitive abilities. Pinker/Spelke lay out great points on both sides of the issue.

Sex Differences in Cognitive Abilities by Diane Halpern is another important work in this subject. It was published back in 1986, so the research on topic has been going on for decades. During that time, virtually every piece of research supports the claim that innate differences in mental abilities exist between the sexes. The extent of those differences is hard to measure, but this new paper is nothing new. It's just adding more support to an already large body of evidence.

bdod6··on How We Used Machine Learning to win at HQ Trivia
whoosh.
bdod6··on How We Used Machine Learning to win at HQ Trivia
We're not sure about the copyright, but that's something we will look at doing if that's not an issue.
bdod6··on How We Used Machine Learning to win at HQ Trivia
We might in the future, but we're unsure what the copyright is on those questions.
bdod6··on How We Used Machine Learning to win at HQ Trivia
Yep! We felt the same way when we saw that question. I think HQ will prioritize questions that are hard but still feel possible. Otherwise their engagement will start dropping off.
bdod6··on How We Used Machine Learning to win at HQ Trivia
I think anyone playing HQ should be encouraged by our results. I know a lot of people turned off by playing because of all the "bots" playing. Based on our analysis and results from over a hundred games...I think it's clear that bots are not sophisticated enough to solve HQ.

We're also using a more sophisticated approach than most bots I've read about, and we continuously train out model on new data. Even so, we would only expect to win 7 out of 100 games.

Our goal was not to hurt the HQ community, but rather to challenge ourselves into solving a difficult data science problem.

bdod6··on How We Used Machine Learning to win at HQ Trivia
There's a lot less teabagging when we win.
bdod6··on How We Used Machine Learning to win at HQ Trivia
Yes, we have been archiving each game going back to October. We augment the questions and answers though so that we get more relevant results when run our web scrapes.
bdod6··on How We Used Machine Learning to win at HQ Trivia
Yep. I actually mention that specific question in the article as an unsolvable question for machine learning, at least given our current constraints.

Those are generally rare questions though because difficult questions for bots are also difficult questions for humans. HQ can't have too many of those questions without degrading the player experience.

Because of that, I don't think we will ever get beyond 10/11 questions right per game. That still leads to a decent chance at winning at least one game per week though.

bdod6··on How We Used Machine Learning to win at HQ Trivia
Author here: At mux, we experimented using machine learning to predict HQ Trivia answers. We managed to get 80-90% accuracy across a dataset of around 500 questions.

The trickiest questions were relational questions (e.g. What's heavier, a pineapple or a Siamese cat?). Would appreciate any feedback on our approach (and happy to answer questions!).

bdod6··on The information capacity of a single photon (2012)
If you calculate the gap for 4 to infinity and 6 to infinity, you can interpolate a pretty good approximation.
bdod6··on Three Uber security managers resign after CEO criticizes practices
speaking from experience at Google, yes. Obviously depends on size of company, but many C-suite/SVP/High VPs would have a "chief of staff" type person reporting to them.
bdod6··on Things Many People Find Too Obvious to Have Told You Already
I wonder if debt is "not available" simply because it's not the standard for SV. I would bet that companies like Slack, Stripe, Stitchfix, etc could have raised considerable amounts of debt instead of raising money through their last rounds.

It's essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy.

bdod6··on Things Many People Find Too Obvious to Have Told You Already
I don't think debt would be worse for startups though. It's unlikely debt would wipe out a startup unless it continually finances through debt over a long period of time or just has really unfavorable debt terms (which wouldn't make sense for the debt issuer either).

The problem is getting debt financing...but I would imagine debt financing would make sense for 99.99% of startups.

bdod6··on The Blockchain Is Bigger Than Any Bubble
Gold has centuries of historical data as a sensible value store. The 'gold rush' didn't RAISE the value gold; gold rushes happened because the value of gold was already high. If anything, gold rushes devalued gold because of the increase in supply. That's very different from what's happening with crypto, in which the run-ups now are happening from speculation. And speculation run-ups ALWAYS burst at some point.

While Bitcoin might have some floor as an investment at this point, it's nowhere near as stable as gold. Equating the two makes very little sense. It would more accurate to compare this to the Tulip bubble than to the gold rush days.

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