What are all these rote coding tasks people do that they can farm it out to lesser models?
8,622 karma · joined January 7, 2014
meet.hn/city/52.2319581,21.0067249/Warsaw
Last year, I saw 1600 Mbit/s from the Internet at a normie's place with an ISP-provided router. Still have a cat 6 cable around the living room but haven't used it in the last 2 years. Not exactly wifi but I routinely get 600-800 Mbit on 5g networks in crowded areas.
Sure, we could all live without IDs and use motio belli for defence but this arrangement will be soon replaced by someone more organized because there is a huge return to that organization despite its risks.
Sure, you could say all digital transformations are nebulous snake oil and don't deliver but I just don't think this is the case.
This sounds possible but how can we know? It could just as well correlate. Effort of all kinds correlates with success even when it's not obvious or not... linear.
Here in Poland we have a budding "save cash" movement. And they make some good points about freedom and privacy but are the loudest about the processing fees when mostly it's a way for smaller merchants to avoid paying taxes. Which is fine, I think they should be exempted anyway, but let's not pretend that it's the 0.5% in fees rather than the 30% in taxes.
But I am just as amazed with how little real life consequence it seems to have! Even software houses were hit more by interest rates than by this magical revolution.
If I couldn't directly observe Fable in action, I wouldn't believe in AI.
I was bulding a small interpreter and writing an article in ~markdown yesterday with Fable. And while it codes like a pro, it writes like a sixth grader.
Let's see how these watermarking stats hold up if/when llms start writing well.
Second, the Internet didn't show up much in GDP and similar measures either!
But your point stands. Where are the amazing digital products/stuff? I get that it might take time to arrive as we scale up compute and learn new paradigms. But so much infra already exists (deployment pipeliens, everyone reachable on a smartphone) that we should be seeing something.
I am not seeing it happen yet but I wonder if this will be the main AI SDLC improvement: you can analyze a ton of docs, build prototypes smoothing the decisions for non-technical stakeholders, and compress development so much that it might actually absorb all the other inefficiencies.
So once you take them off the streets for a couple of years, or decades for the more hardened ones, it's fine. It has an added benefit of breaking criminal networks so the future adepts have no place to fence the stolen goods.
Doesn't exactly move the needle on the odds of our extinction but neither does anything they publish, apparently.
I personally sleep soundly because I don't think there's any going back. We will either escape drudgery or die. Which is fair and as it should be.
My experiences with Opus have been such that I always max out my Fable allotment but rarely exceed 40% of the remaining limit on Claude.
* have OLED screens and dark modes which are amazing after sundown,
* virtually everything works on Linux, especially all effectively mandatory/government services (at least here in Poland),
* and with some hardware selection Linux works everywhere,
* batteries last ages and everything can be charged via USB-C,
* smartphone cameras now finally exceed my own vision, have amazing zoom and take great nighttime photos (although not of moving stuff yet),
* the ecosystem allows to magically summon a car,
* can have an e2e encrypted multimodal (video, photos, documents, text) conversation with virtually everyone we know, wherever they are in the world, live or asynchronously,
* not to mention LLMs just doing things for you like a tireless assistant.
All of these were a dream when I first set up a home server in 2004. Some like OLED were a dream I didn't even know I had, the LCD glow just annoyed me.
If it implements something simple like a file export, it just knows that the file should have a meaningful name. Vibecoded feature beats most software's lazy "untitled.png".
So, yes, I want the smartest model even for simple stuff. Maybe especially for simple stuff because the tokens burned will be trivial so the cost doesn't give lower models a comparative advantage.
But it works. Fable is truly amazing, maybe not head and shoulders above the rest but at least a head. Apparently, this neurosis-driven development does attract AI talent.
It suprises me. It shouldn't because the same target demo has been following Eliezer Yudkowsky for decades now but it still does. I just don't have a theory of mind where this is an attractor.
"Always Free Ampere A1 Compute entitlements have changed. This update does not affect your paid resources, existing paid workloads or bill. Contact support for further questions."
"You read my blog so now show me your utility bill" is... an interesting argument.
With e-commerce my shopping is down to just groceries. Clothes, electronics, tools, spare parts, furniture, all show up at my door magically without hunting them down in stores. I remember a small repair being half a day. It's an hour now.
My dad certainly did not and could not have maintained a 12 cafe outings a month habit. I can do it with a newborn. Still probably deflationary compared to his activity.
However, almost all of these are purely private benefits that do not show in any ledger. This is at least in part why the Internet seems to have had such small impact on gdp.
How about AI? So far, even more private benefits than the Internet.