HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

bretpiatt

3,106 karma · joined November 30, 2009

Partner at Redbud Trail Group https://redbudtrailgroup.com/

Founder of OpenStack https://www.openstack.org

Builder and breaker of things, enjoying AI development while missing the days of register optimizing in hand crafted asm.

submissionscomments
bretpiatt··on Correct Backups Require Filesystem Snapshots
A system snapshot for a personal computer is potentially a really difficult thing to restore (ex. you break the device and need a new one, unless it matches exactly restoring snapshot likely puts you in OS recovery mode).

A volume snapshot if you're technical enough to split up OS and application data volumes on your local drive can potentially help but you still have registry or other issues.

The best way to handle backups, from the perspective of a backup company CEO, is to backup your critical data, and that could include application configurations.

Browsers support exporting your profile, good backup software let's you run a pre-backup job script and post-job script, so you can export your browser profile, lock certain files or folders during a backup, etc. to get a good recovery point while minimizing risk of data corruption.

Way longer topic than a comment here. If you do want full system state, pick a hypervisor (Parallels, etc.) and then backup the full VM each time you power the VM down. It'll make for much larger backups so restores are slower and storing all the recovery points will cost you a bit more too.

bretpiatt··on IQ scores are falling and have been for decades (2018)
Thanks, missed the link, reading study.

So many variables here including way the math portion was measured moving to multiple choice in the 1990s when the scores start dropping, hopping on a flight, still skeptical.

Other quick one, all 95% confidence interval on data that moves less than +/- 2.5% either way. I understand confidence interval isn't a straight linear margin of error, it one I'd want to also look at further.

bretpiatt··on IQ scores are falling and have been for decades (2018)
Okay, I see what you're saying, so we take two sample groups, use one as a baseline, then lay the second group over that curve.

So now we need to be really careful about bias in the sample groups.

To say IQ scores are dropping and we don't know why then means to me we don't know what variables were the key drivers of the first groups results so we therefore cannot possibly create a consistent second group to measure against the baseline.

I'm still stuck but I'm often dense and skeptical on these type of analysis.

bretpiatt··on IQ scores are falling and have been for decades (2018)
The analytical side of me doesn't understand how scores on a test that baselines the average to X (in the case of IQ, it is baseline of 100), then distributes them around that baseline on a normal distribution curve can go down over time.

The article didn't link data so I can't dig in further.

https://personalityanalysistest.com/iq-score/what-is-the-sta...

bretpiatt··on Shell profits nearly triple as oil prices surge
The constraints are in the shipping and refining. When demand goes up exploration and production (firms who find and get it out of the ground) get to charge more as end users fight over the limited supply.

Due to environmental regulations it is very difficult to build refineries, pipelines, import / export terminals, etc.

This is why when prices go up from $65 to $105 you do not see production companies increase supply further to get the extra sales, there's no way for them to get another barrel to the end customer.

bretpiatt··on My lazy Wordle strategy: same words every time
The PIOUS LEARN all the vowels in 2 words with other common letters, it isn't specifically about eliminating entropy.

If an E exists but not in the second spot then it is THMYE to learn more.

bretpiatt··on EU is going to require interoperability between messaging platforms
Plenty of interoperable encryption systems, they'd just have to use and support one or more such as GPG, PGP, IPSec, etc.[1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography

bretpiatt··on Why income share agreements did not work out
That's not 30% unless you repay real quick, if you paid it at the end of 5 years in a single payment that's 8.5%, 1.085^5 = 1.50.

In straight amortization using $30k tuition, $45k repayment, over 60 months is $750/mo which works out to 17.25% rate.

It isn't a great deal but it's not terrible vs. other low recourse private loan options.

bretpiatt··on [dead]
Dupe on topic, comments here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30762520
bretpiatt··on Ask HN: Is your company considering inflation in this year's comp review cycle?
Law firms and accounting firms solved this long ago, they all send out new rate cards effective January 1, [YEAR] during Q4 every year. I would not be ashamed to do the same.
bretpiatt··on YC’s $500k Standard Deal
Based on your statement of "...not interested in learning about SAFEs...and not owing anyone anything" you are not interested in running a venture investor backed business. You want to bootstrap[1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entrepreneurship#Bootstrapping

bretpiatt··on Search engines and SEO spam
This is already happening for a bunch of verticals:

Travel - Expedia, Hotels.com, Kayak, etc.

Consumer Goods - Amazon, WalMart, EBay, Etsy, etc.

Automobile Purchase - Cars.com, Autotrader, etc.

Career/Job - Indeed, LinkedIn, etc.

As Google continues to lose search volume on these big revenue categories it is going to make spam much more difficult as they are working to sort out long tail spam. Way harder.

bretpiatt··on China issues new encryption import control
For TLS much larger keys are typically used, "The recommended minimum key length is 1024 bits, with 2048 bits preferred, but this is up to a thousand times more computationally intensive than symmetric keys of equivalent strength (e.g. a 2048-bit asymmetric key is approximately equivalent to a 112-bit symmetric key) and makes asymmetric encryption too slow for many purposes."

Source: https://www.internetsociety.org/deploy360/tls/basics/

bretpiatt··on Ford's $3900 electric crate motor and F-100 concept
Pontoon boat would not use the Ford crate motor from the article, they use 55-110lb thrust electric trolling motors.

Example: Minn Kota Pontoon Freshwater Electric-Steer Bow-Mount Trolling Motor with Digital Maximizer & PowerDrive Foot Control, 48" Shaft

Most folks don't use their boat all day each day so it can sit and charge for days between uses and often on a use you aren't going far, then you anchor and hang out.

bretpiatt··on Ford's $3900 electric crate motor and F-100 concept
You don't: https://www.pontooners.com/solar-powered-pontoon-boats/
bretpiatt··on Bryan Caplan: Our Homeschooling Odyssey
Nice to see someone living their research in their own life[1].

On a personal anecdotal parallel I went in and out of public and private schools growing up. My parents had to drive me to local high school campus so I could take geometry in 8th grade (I'd already done Algebra 1-2 and 3-4 in 5th and 6th grade at a private school which was basically run like Caplan's home schooling, a group of us did 4 hours of math a day together).

With my children now I've seen different schools work great and work terribly. We've moved kids between schools trying to match up needs of each child with the design of the program at the school.

My main macro observation (via 4 kids who are now adults and 1 who is in high school): For kids who know they want to be a specialist at a young age school is really hard for them.

If as a society we really believe in comparative economic advantage and each person working for their highest and best use then exchanging their earned dollars with specialists in other areas of their life then school is designed poorly for those who do choose to specialize, costing them years of advancement at a point when their brains are setup to build pathways more quickly.

[1] Caplan is a Princeton PhD and now tenured professor at GMU who is the author of "The Case Against Education" https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691174655/th...

bretpiatt··on McDonald’s unreliable ice cream machines reportedly under FTC investigation
Here's actual data: https://mcbroken.com/

As of my posting: 9.73% overall Currently Broken (all locations), 28.57% in New York, 18.75% in Seattle, 17.95% in Philadelphia, 17.74% in Houston, 16.36% in Dallas, 13.79% in Phoenix

bretpiatt··on Apple Reports Third Quarter Results
Even if all 700 million subscribers are $0.99/month it is still an $8.3 billion per year business. That's enough to be #362 on 2021 Fortune 500.

If you really drill into all the different numbers they release over time as investment / corporate strategy analyst you can get a pretty reasonable mix on revenue streams this size.

I don't dig in on Apple as I'm a B2B focused person so speculating a bit here based on parallel experience.

bretpiatt··on National Collegiate Athletic Association vs. Alston [pdf]
What's even worse with NCAA compensation is that it is limited to a scholarship and the value of that scholarship is tied to the cost of a given college or university. If an athlete is given a scholarship to an in-state public university their compensation might be $25,000 per year versus another student attending a higher cost private school who could be getting paid $75,000 per year effectively.

You then have the value of the different degrees to the market (which is separate from the cost) so it is very possible that certain student athletes are obtaining a degree worth hundreds of thousands of future dollars in the market versus some who get 4 years of room and board to play sports, make the university money, and then maybe they do not even end up with a degree by the time their eligibility expires (see data on student athlete graduation rates).

bretpiatt··on IBM unveils first quantum computer in Germany
To super oversimplify this for explanation, let's say our quantum computer runs today with a clock cycle of 50 megahertz.

The quantum computer is able to do certain tasks in fewer clock cycles but since we measure time in seconds a regular 3.2Ghz 8 core CPU today would perform 5,000x the clock cycles per second.

If quantum is going to scale and work is still TBD but saying they are slower in seconds isn't a fair way to grade. They could be 1000x faster in clock cycles and still 5x slower in seconds today.

Link on IBM Quantum https://indico.cern.ch/event/719844/contributions/3019718/at...

bretpiatt··on IRS records reveal how the wealthiest avoid income tax
I encourage you to go take a look at the larger 501(c)3 non-profit "aka. charities" in your area. Here's a few from San Antonio where I live:

Haven for Hope (transformational campus to combat homelessness) https://www.havenforhope.org/

San Antonio Food Bank (part of a national network of food banks) https://safoodbank.org/

Catholic Charities, Archdiocese of San Antonio (I'm the Board Chair, we run ~40 programs meeting people where they are and helping them on a path to self sufficiency) https://ccaosa.org/

bretpiatt··on The most expensive number in engineering
I'm not a civil or aerospace engineer so this could be built into the safety factor models already. Reading the post had me wondering:

If safety factor adds mass and additional mass requires additional force to accelerate is a lower safety factor safer since you'll lower the amount of force required thus increasing the structural safety?

Calculating safety factor for a given scenario feels like a complex multivariable equation. Is that the case?

bretpiatt··on Backblaze is now a Terraform provider
With the B2 target use case of backup and archive data I suspect it's actually a good time to do it for their customer base (and it also then happens to be good for their engineering team too, awake and alert!).
bretpiatt··on Multi-User Dungeons (MUDs): What Are They? and How to Play
Another MUD (and MUX) alumni here, used to play a lot of 3 Kingdoms ( still up at http://3k.org/ ) using TinTin ( https://tintin.mudhalla.net/ ) and TinyFugue ( http://tinyfugue.sourceforge.net/ ) as clients. Also played lots of MUX, specifically BattleTech 3065 ( still up at http://btmux.com/ ).

Once the graphical MMORPG came out and folks started to have broadband and their own computers MUD/MUX usage dropped a ton. The MUD/MUX games were much better setup to play from your shell account on your university lab systems at the time. Even today I'm bummed a MMORPG BattleTech never came out that rivaled the 3065 MUX experience.

bretpiatt··on Berkshire Hathaway 2020 Annual report [pdf]
Not exactly a dupe, Annual Letter != Annual Report.
bretpiatt··on Atlassian Acquires Chartio
Where is the quote on "going away" from? I don't see it in the Atlassian blog post now so if it was there they edited to remove.

Edit: found ZDNet article stating it https://www.zdnet.com/article/atlassian-acquires-chartio-pla...

bretpiatt··on Nvidia Limits RTX 3060 Hash Rate
To my knowledge they didn't shut it down, PS4 architecture moved to standard x86 PC so no longer advanced vector units available through PlayStation that you couldn't get separately in an easier to work with way. This led to the rise of the current Top 500 which are a mix of CPU and GPU.
bretpiatt··on Nvidia Limits RTX 3060 Hash Rate
"Running on more than 1,700 PS3s that were connected by five miles of wire, the Condor Cluster was huge, dwarfing Khanna’s project, and it used to process images from surveillance drones. During its heyday, it was the 35th fastest supercomputer in the world."*

Back at PS2/PS3 they were used for computing, Sony actually released a kit and had paid staff helping people who wanted to build PS2 supercomputers -- a good friend from college worked on the project at Sony. They had amazing vector processing units in them.

* https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/3/20984028/playstation-supe...

Article from 2003 on PS2 setups https://www.ign.com/articles/2003/05/28/ps2-supercomputer

bretpiatt··on Clearing price for supplying power to Texas grid –$31.65
Here's screenshot of 15 min spot price page https://ibb.co/YTzsqdj
bretpiatt··on Clearing price for supplying power to Texas grid –$31.65
Real-Time System Conditions

Last Updated: Feb 20, 2021 16:51:26 Frequency Current Frequency 60.007

Instantaneous Time Error -24.595

Consecutive BAAL Clock-Minute Exceedances (min) 0

Real-Time Data Actual System Demand 33772

Total System Capacity (not including Ancillary Services) 60667

Total Wind Output 8646

Total PVGR Output 323

Current System Inertia 223646

DC Tie Flows DC_E (East) -299 DC_L (Laredo VFT) 0 DC_N (North) -219 DC_R (Railroad) 0 DC_S (Eagle Pass) 0

← PreviousPage 3 of 14Next →