Correct, yet the conditions do exist that point to a potential recession in the next 6-12 months. The stock market reactions and business reactions are forward looking. Even just the specter of a recession (not to mention the raising interest rates and sticky inflation for certain goods/ housing) can impact behaviors and allow business activity to slow enough for one to occur, sort of a self fulfilling prophecy. I'd imagine the Fed is not pleased that companies are hording talent and mis-allocating capital in this way (high wage inflation) to retain them (unnaturally). The wages and salaries are artificially inflated, built up over the last decade of near 0% interest rates. The Fed will persist at slowing business activity until the point it breaks. There is 3.5% unemployment in general in the US but within software developers it is more like 2.2%. Once a developer is let go, more/less they immediately find work. This is only partially what the Fed wants. It is good to curb the demand by freeing up these workers but they want real unemployment to rise before they will start to ease.