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causalmodels

599 karma · joined October 20, 2018

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causalmodels··on New AI classifier for indicating AI-written text
My younger brother and I both have fairly severe dyslexia. He's been applying to school and has been using ChatGPT to help him correct spelling and grammar mistakes rather than going to a person for help. It has been fairly incredible for him.

I wonder if this tool would start flagging his work even though he is only using it as a fancy spell checker.

causalmodels··on New AI classifier for indicating AI-written text
You could always teach them how to use git and have them commit frequently. Seems like it would be less intrusive than a webcam.
causalmodels··on Why WhatsApp Only Needs 50 Engineers for Its 900M Users (2015)
> a key component of your business, or one that affects many users, shouldn't be permitted to be so complex that its outcome can't be explained based on a finite number of documented variables and logical branches.

You don't think that any business should be able to use random forests, let alone anything neural network based?

causalmodels··on From Google: Why we focus on AI (and to what end)
It is a lot easier to issue rebukes than it is to actually ship products.
causalmodels··on It seems that the good times for online Minecraft play are over
Can you name a single moderation system that operates on this scale that will not automatically ban someone for getting mass reported? This is a fairly well known phenomenon.
causalmodels··on It seems that the good times for online Minecraft play are over
> I highly doubt this. The Minecraft FAQ has this to say about it:

This level of naïvety is somewhat endearing.

causalmodels··on Two thought experiments to evaluate automated stablecoins
The cost of storing a digital asset be it USD, a futures contract, or crypto is significantly less than paying to store physical goods. I don't see how this is up for debate.
causalmodels··on Show HN: I turned my face rec system into a video codec
https://www.dpreview.com/news/5756257699/nvidia-research-dev...
causalmodels··on Two thought experiments to evaluate automated stablecoins
Not really sure this would work. The problem with physical commodities is that you actually have to store them somewhere.
causalmodels··on Google’s AI-powered ‘inclusive warnings’ feature is very broken
Agreed, I was just trying give an example of why using proprietor would create confusion.
causalmodels··on Google’s AI-powered ‘inclusive warnings’ feature is very broken
Because it leads to confusion.

Example: Is the proprietor of a bar the person running it or the landlord who owns the building?

causalmodels··on Google’s AI-powered ‘inclusive warnings’ feature is very broken
I find “Latinx” to be so unbelievably stupid because the English “x” sound doesn’t exist in Spanish. Rather than using the gender neutral form “latine”, some moron decided we should start injecting Anglo idioms into the Spanish language
causalmodels··on Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private
> If he's prematurely saying what direction he's going to go one way or another, that's another thing. You don't see Vanguard tweeting "we're going to invest in this company if X happens and divest if not" to the general public, especially if they're trying to influence X to happen.

Because Vanguard is a passive fund. Activist funds do this all the time.

causalmodels··on Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private
I'm sorry, but in what world does having a plan constitute insider information?
causalmodels··on US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
I am by no means a fan of mmt, but I think looking at government spending as a share of GDP misses the point mmt proponents attempt and often fail to make; which is that financial constraints are should not be the limiting factor of the economy.

A better indicator would be the price of labor and commodities since they better reflect the constraints of the real economy. Unfortunately for the mmt people, the prices are going nuts because we are actually dealing with real resource constraints now.

causalmodels··on US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
Not even the MMT people understand MMT. The lack of formal models means everyone is working with wildly different and often contradictory definitions
causalmodels··on Education Department Forgives $415M of For-Profit College Debt
The article itself states that forgiveness is coming because these institutions defrauded their students
causalmodels··on New York is using cameras with microphones to ticket loud cars
It seems like it would just be a better idea to have meter maids do this manually rather seeding cameras and microphones with direct feeds to the state.
causalmodels··on New York is using cameras with microphones to ticket loud cars
I'm not aware of governments just asking one to pay a fine. The thing that really bothers me is that it allows the state to perform legal action at scale. If a city, let's say Chicago, just started sending people ticket how many would just pay it? From what I've seen [0], my guess would be a lot.

[0] https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2021/07/29/chicago-speed-camera...

causalmodels··on Long-standing literary magazines are struggling to stay afloat
Full time staff of between 5 and 20. No idea how writer pay works but I know my writer friends are happy with it. They are both organized as 501c3s with fundraising explicitly tied into the model
causalmodels··on Long-standing literary magazines are struggling to stay afloat
This is interesting because I am personal friends with the editorial teams of two different literary magazines that were started in the last five years. Having seen the numbers, I can say they are doing quite well. I am curious as to what is going wrong in these particular magazines that is causing them to close?
causalmodels··on Why won’t anyone teach me math?
> Given my situation, how would you try to convince me that I should learn math

Learning math has been the only time that I have ever been truly humbled by the aesthetic beauty of an idea. I didn't intend on studying math, I wanted to be an english major, but the woman I was dating at the time was somewhat of a math prodigy and I wanted to understand her world more // impress her. This may seem silly to some of the more mathematically mature people here, but the moment I fully understood Cantor's theorem it felt like my mind was dunked into this sublime understanding that left me in a daze for a week. Russell sums this up pretty well,

""" Mathematics, rightly viewed, possesses not only truth, but supreme beauty—a beauty cold and austere, like that of sculpture, without appeal to any part of our weaker nature, without the gorgeous trappings of painting or music, yet sublimely pure, and capable of a stern perfection such as only the greatest art can show. The true spirit of delight, the exaltation, the sense of being more than Man, which is the touchstone of the highest excellence, is to be found in mathematics as surely as poetry. """

> how would I teach myself the actually interesting parts without getting bogged down by doing lengthy calculations that a computer could do. The standard curriculum is so heavy on the latter and mostly absent of the former.

This wont be much of a problem if you're interested in pure math as numbers bigger than 10 are rare in that domain. I would recommend picking up an intro to proofs type book like [1]. The reviews are mixed but I would take that with a grain of salt as I suspect many of them were written by bitter students.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Chapter-Zero-Fundamental-Abstract-Mat...

causalmodels··on My out-of-body experience in a sensory deprivation tank
At something like 6 lbs (2.7kg) per gallon (3.78541 liters) I'm not sure normal microbes can survive.
causalmodels··on Facebook versus The BMJ: when fact checking goes wrong
Is a bad teacher better than no teacher? My parents had to pull my brother out of third grade because his teacher routinely picked on and harassed him, even going so far as to give him an in school suspension for talking back because they refused to believe "sphere" was a word even after being shown numerous dictionary entries.
causalmodels··on More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years
Yes to juice application numbers. Acceptance rate is something heavily considered by the AP in college rankings.
causalmodels··on Do svidaniya, Igor, and thank you for Nginx
No thank you. I honestly don't know where I would be without you and Fernando. Those initial presentations gave my bosses the confidence to let me hang out with the engineers and start messing around with the code base even though I didn't know how to code. A few years later and I had my first CS paper published.

From the bottom of my heart, thank you.

causalmodels··on Do svidaniya, Igor, and thank you for Nginx
Wait you made Flaticon? I would like to to say thank you. Before I truly got into software I was a humble associate consultant and I honestly don't know how I would have made all those decks without you.
causalmodels··on More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years
True, but prestigious schools are playing games. For example, my alma mater is currently waiving the application fee for students they know will not get in simply so they can reject them. It is incredibly fucked up.
causalmodels··on Ask HN: Where Is the COLA?
Some companies are doing this but it varies by industry. I have family on the comp boards of a few publicly traded companies and they are doing across the board raises of 5-9%.

My current company is not and so I have been interviewing.

causalmodels··on Two Years Is Long Enough
I share your distrust of the media, but I think there is an even more cynical answer at play. A bunch of my personal friends work for these publications. Almost all of us got covid in December, ironically many from the holiday parties of these publications, and came face to face with the reality that we have sacrificed almost two years of our 20s to a virus that was pretty mild. The thing we were trying to avoid came for us, so the idea that we would continue to live in fear of an event that already happened is absurd.
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