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celestialcheese

2,060 karma · joined June 17, 2017

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celestialcheese··on Silicon Valley needs to stop laying off workers and start firing CEOs
Agreed. There's been a lot of this lately on HN, and it's starting to feel like Reddit's /r/politics or /r/antiwork.
celestialcheese··on Getty Images v. Stability AI – Complaint
Of course not all content creators are trolls. The jump to sue and the assumption that all of this is somehow victimizing everyone who has released content in the CC license is troll-like thinking.

Like I said before, I believe there's a strong argument that Stability AI / LAION's use of CC-{BY/SA/ND} is likely allowed under the terms of all CC licenses due to the works being shared without alteration and with attribution, released under CC-BY-SA 4.0 (LAION) and the Stable Diffusion model being released under a permissive license (CreativeML Open RAIL-M).

The real question is if the images generated by the models need to provide attribution to every single weight involved in generating that image. That's a lot more complicated and unclear, but quickly gets into questions like "Should artistic style be copyrightable?" and "What amount of source material is required to constitute a copyrighted work?". But as of right now, I don't see how any of this is violating the letter or intent of CC 4.0

celestialcheese··on Getty Images v. Stability AI – Complaint
This is a strange take. Folks who choose to use a CC license do so because they want their work in the public and to be "Use(d) & Remix(ed)" https://creativecommons.org/use-remix/. The creative commons is very clearly designed to encourage reuse, remix and sharing, and the practice of suing over not following terms to the letter is a gross warping of the license that's happened over the last few years with copyright trolls. The Creative Commons organization has explicitly called this out. [1]

But I would argue that Stable Diffusion with the open-sourcing of their model weights, and use of the LAION dataset which is released under CC-BY 4.0, would likely meet both the letter and intent of the license. https://wiki.creativecommons.org/wiki/CC_Attribution-ShareAl...

1 - https://creativecommons.org/2022/02/08/copyleft-trolls/

celestialcheese··on Getty Images v. Stability AI – Complaint
I wonder if Getty and Stability AI were ever in negotiation for licensing their work and this lawsuit is fallout.

Getty announced in Oct they partnered with BRIA (?) to provide generative AI tools using their licensed images [1], and Shutterstock announced a partnership with OpenAI [2].

So it's clear these rights holders are OK with generative AI, as long as they continue to extract their pound of flesh. The language around "protecting artists" is horseshit - if you're a creative and you see Disney, Getty, etc getting behind your cause, you should look _very_ carefully around and make sure you're not the one being screwed.

1 - https://newsroom.gettyimages.com/en/getty-images/bria-partne... 2 - https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/25/23422359/shutterstock-ai...

celestialcheese··on Meta Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Results
It's largely worse from the outside because meta has no goodwill to make mistakes and iterate in public. GPT-2/3 were just as bad at hallucination, if not worse. That doesn't mean that meta isn't iterating on their LLM in private using the 3b users and armies of labelers to fine-tune and improve their model.

From what I understand, they have one of the strongest translation models at scale, and their recommendation models for advertising are likely only rivaled by Google or Bytedance

celestialcheese··on The Rock 5B is not a Raspberry Pi killer–yet
It's really wild. NUCs and other mini PC's from HP/Dell are _so_ much better at similar if not cheaper prices.

My theory is that, despite the economics for using Pi's completely flipping to making it a ridiculous decision for most applications, the decade+ of tutorials, Youtube videos, forum posts, github READMEs, etc all describe using Raspberry Pi's as the way to deploy XYZ open source project is enough of a "moat" that it just keeps the demand high enough to suck up supply.

Also I don't think that people realize how good 3-5 year old technology is relative to the price. There's definitely a great arb there right now, and I think it's just going to get better.

The Raspberry Pi brand is wildly strong, but it's eroded for me because of scalpers and lack of availability - hopefully they can right the ship before it's tainted for good.

celestialcheese··on ChatGPT Plus
It's $0.02 per 1k tokens for text-davinci-003.
celestialcheese··on Spotify is first music streaming service to surpass 200M paid subscribers
Forever.

With Spotify's subscriber base, the rights holders will never let them die. Universal, Warner, Sony, etc will adjust royalties up and down while still keeping the catalogue healthy enough to keep the blood pumping so they can continue their perfect leech, and never kill the host.

The podcast business was a shot at breaking this cycle, but it's unclear if it's actually working. If they make too much from podcasting, I don't see why the big 3 rights holders wouldn't just raise their rates to take them back to break-even.

celestialcheese··on PayPal to lay off 7% of its workforce, about 2,000 employees
Operating a bank, lending, and money transfer operations in so many countries requires an incredible amount of behind the scenes work.

Plus all the KYC, support, fraud, and infrastructure to support all those roles.

You wouldn't know it based on how terrible their support is, but that 28k number doesn't shock me.

celestialcheese··on Tell HN: Heroku deleted my database with no warning
Yup - this happened to me too. It was wildly frustrating, but they did send few emails looking back - it was just a really small project and it wasn't on my radar.

What pissed me off most is that I WAS paying for the account. I was paying $17/mo for redis and dynos, so there was an active card on file.

Why not just start charging for the postgres db, and only delete if there's no active billing?

Heroku was already a no-go for me with new projects, I just keep old things running in there since it's too much work to migrate off. This just cements that for me.

celestialcheese··on Ask HN: Those making $0/month or less on side projects – Show and tell
Even assuming a _very_ low $0.01/session, he'd be making $60k/mo.

More realistically, if he decided to do this right, and sell direct ads using something like Kevel, with "promoted" game slots or something on the homepage and search, he could do $10-$20CPM direct since it's a large and well known site with high purchase intent.

Let's say a conservative 4 impressions per page and 3 pages per session.

(12 imps per session * 6m sessions)/1000 * $10CPM is $720k / mo

This is a _very_ achievable number, quickly, for a site that is this close to purchase intent.

I don't understand. Even putting a single adsense ad at a $1 CPM would net him close to $20k/mo. This might be one of the least monetized sites I've seen at this scale.

Respect.

celestialcheese··on OpenJourney: Midjourney, but Open Source
If anyone wants to try it out without having to build and install the thing - https://replicate.com/prompthero/openjourney

I've been using openjourney (and MJ/SD) quite a bit, and it does generate "better" with "less" compared to standard v1.5, but it's nowhere close to Midjourney v4.

Midjourney is so far ahead in generating "good" images across a wide space of styles and subjects using very little prompting. While SD requires careful negative prompts and extravagant prompting to generate something decent.

Very interested in being wrong about this, there's so much happening with SD that it's hard to keep up with what's working best.

celestialcheese··on Hyperscale in your Homelab: The Compute Blade arrives
100% this.

I picked up a HP 705 G4 mini on backmarket for $80 shipped the other day to run Home Assistant and some other small local containers. 500gb ram, Ryzen 5 2400GE, 8gb ddr4 w/ a valid windows license.

Sure it's not as small or silent, but there's no way to beat the prices of these few-years old enterprise mini-pc's

celestialcheese··on Rising rent, not poverty, is the real driver of homelessness
Categorizing 575k signatures as just "some signed petitions" is some unreal minimization of the cost and difficulty to get this done.

2022 ballot measures "Cost per required signature" was $16.18. [1]. Between $6.4m -> $18.8m to get a prop on the ballot.

1 - https://ballotpedia.org/California_ballot_initiative_petitio...

celestialcheese··on NY Sabotages Right to Repair Bill [video]
Can confirm DIGITAL RIGHT TO REPAIR COALITION is Repair.org and was the opposition to TechNet and all the OEMs lobbying against this bill.
celestialcheese··on Ask HN: What's a build vs. buy decision that you got wrong?
I agree, but only in a consumer environment, such as games and other trivial consumer apps with a lot of free sign-ups, when storing none or very little PII, where SSO/etc aren't ever going to be required. These SaaS products are far too expensive for free consumer apps.

Otherwise, if you are going to be selling into the enterprise and the majority of your users are paid, this is an area where using a SaaS tool is a no-brainer. Your sales team is going to run into customers that need XYZ-compliant auth and it's solved out of the box with the SaaS and cost isn't an issue since it'll just be baked into the per-user pricing.

celestialcheese··on Ask HN: Anyone tired of everything being a subscription now?
In the niche of Laravel PHP, a dev shop out of Belgium, Spatie, has been doing the opposite with a email marketing platform [1]1.

Flat license fee for source code that I can customize and run in my existing app. Running it at scale and just annually renewing licenses to keep updates and bugfixes coming. It's wonderful.

But that's the only exception to a long list of annual and monthly contracts. One bright spot. Thanks Spatie.

1 - https://mailcoach.app/

celestialcheese··on WeWork’s once robust cash reserves have dwindled, raising chances of default
It's estimated prior to the IPO in 2019, he had cashed out close to $778m through late-stage private stock sales and consulting fees.[1] Then it was litigated, and he only got $480m + $50m in legal(!)[2]. Unclear if how much of those two are additive vs the same amount reported poorly over time. It was also rumored he sold more stock before those final rounds with Softbank.

Plus, he still has something like 88m shares still in wework[3]. Hopefully he didn't margin-loan those shares.

Safe to say, he did better on wework than anyone else - a rare moment where the founder of a failed company has a better outcome than the investors

1 - https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/04/wework-co-founder-... 2 - https://archive.vn/bBW2d 3 - https://fintel.io/n/us/we/neumann-adam

celestialcheese··on Apple TV+ to adapt William Gibson’s cyberpunk novel Neuromancer
Look at the date ;)
celestialcheese··on How to write like Malcolm Gladwell
As an aside - I just finished "The Bomber Mafia" and found it to be a very fun and interesting read. A departure from his "Pop-Smart" type books in the past.

He's a very entertaining writer, and effective at telling stories - definitely lessons to be learned from his style.

celestialcheese··on Bill to ban social media for Texans under 18
The negative effects of social media on children are absolutely something we should be discussing. Kids spend an unbelievable amount of time online in these networks, and it's having a real consequences. We already require by law blocking access to kids under 13 in certain situations, so it's not without precedent.

Why would you think this is something that is so far outside the reasonable to not warrant discussion here or in govt?

celestialcheese··on Facebook tracking is illegal in Europe
100% this. In the past, you would have to commit to a minimum of $1k/mo for local radio/tv/newspaper ads, and had no tracking and lagging indicators if the spend was effective. Classifieds in newspaper were cheaper, but still more expensive than FB. With $100/day on facebook charged to your CC, from my experience, you could almost overnight turn on 2-3 quality leads per day. This was life changing for a significant number of people.

This isn't possible anymore as you need to burn thousands to get enough learning to get scale with Facebook, especially if you're in the US with an audience that uses iPhones.

Google Search ads still work, because they own the whole stack and they aren't impacted by attribution, but the prices have been going up significantly as people move spend towards channels with better attribution.

All of this legislation and privacy advocacy is just a gift to Amazon/Google/Apple - everything is first party data for these "portal" businesses. Their ads will still work, and they'll have no real competition in direct-response marketing.

celestialcheese··on Facebook tracking is illegal in Europe
Yes. TikTok pixels are everywhere now, just not as prolific because it's newer.
celestialcheese··on Incident affecting Google Ad Manager
It was a mod edit.

Google is soft-balling the impact of this, and I think the watered down title doesn't do it justice. Google's ad server is behind nearly 90% of all ads served outside of the walled gardens, and the ad server has been down now for 3 hours.

But because the ad server is a part of GAM, and their UI and reporting are still up, they can call it a partial outage.

celestialcheese··on Incident affecting Google Ad Manager
Exactly. Although this is likely one of the biggest days of the year for display and video advertising, so it'll be likely more than 1/6 of $25m/hr.
celestialcheese··on Incident affecting Google Ad Manager
It doesn't look like it's affecting their search ads (or if it is, it's not fully down for them), so not the full advertising revenue of GOOG. But it's still likely tens of millions per hour.
celestialcheese··on Incident affecting Google Ad Manager
Eh - worth a shot. HN surprises me sometimes with anons jumping in and giving a behind-the-curtain look.
celestialcheese··on Incident affecting Google Ad Manager
On personal machines, yes. Work involves ads so I keep it off the work machine so I understand what's going on.
celestialcheese··on Incident affecting Google Ad Manager
Seeing these big sites with no ads is strange. CNN, NYPost, etc. This is going to be wildly expensive for Google.

Anyone internal know what's going on? We started seeing GAM not returning responses about an hour ago, yet their status page and accounts were silent till 10 minutes ago.

celestialcheese··on A homework question in someone’s 11th grade statistics class
Maybe this was a "Poll" type multiple choice question, given that it's online? Could be used as a jumping-off point for discussions next class.
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