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celestialcheese

2,056 karma · joined June 17, 2017

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celestialcheese··on Dayjob: Tax – evaluating AI agents on 50 professional tax assignments
The IRS open sourced their direct-file code after it got cut. IIRC similar work done there. https://github.com/IRS-Public/direct-file
celestialcheese··on Tesla Roadster
Have they announce pricing on the rocket version? I could see it being priced like a bugatti or koenigsegg, where selling 100-500 of these is a great business.
celestialcheese··on Market selloff, rising rates test AI data centre deal boom
It's not speculators, it's groups exporting to china where they're moving the chips to new cards for use in data centers. [0][1]

Probably related, china banned imports of the 5090d in may.

- https://videocardz.com/newz/heres-why-rtx-5090-costs-5000-ai...

- https://videocardz.com/newz/inside-chinas-mass-conversion-of...

celestialcheese··on High Diesel Prices Bankrupted 16 Trucking Companies in Just 30 Days
This is a meaningless stat without comparison. There are nearly 500k trucking companies operating in the US, with ~91% operating 10 trucks or fewer.

16 companies seems like standard churn (if not a significantly lower than what I'd expect in a low margin business like trucking).

celestialcheese··on Why is Google still serving dodgy ads?
We had to hire a full time person to monitor and block click-trick "Continue" / "Download" scam ads on Google Ad Manager. With the amount of human training we did blocking these ads, google could absolutely solve this problem instantly. The ad creatives are nearly identical. We were seeing new ad accounts targeting our specific domain daily (ad account names like {sitename}339, {sitename}340, etc)

When we asked our reps, they dance around the question by saying they would "escalate to engineering" or some bs like that.

Google just makes far too much money to stop. My guess is that its >40% of AdX display revenue, based on the % of scam ads that come through ad manager.

Context: our site did ~$5m AdX revenue annually, mostly US audience. High CPM niche. This was ~7 years ago till 2 years ago when we sold the business, I would guess it's still happening based on ads I see browsing the internet.

celestialcheese··on uBlock Origin Is Giving Up the Fight to Keep Ads Off Facebook
Marketplace aggressively curates to your searches and interactions. So much so you have to be careful with your browsing otherwise your recommendations get off.

My guess is that the default state is the scam garbage. It quickly learns your preferences. Which I hate. I miss having my 5 sections of craigslist I could browse over my morning coffee and not feel like I'm missing a deal.

celestialcheese··on uBlock Origin Is Giving Up the Fight to Keep Ads Off Facebook
Marketplace. It's horrible, but the area I live in has mostly abandoned craigslist and if you want to buy/sell used stuff, marketplace is where you have to be.
celestialcheese··on AI uses less water than the public thinks
Everything is relative, 28.6m gallons per day is nothing.

Golf courses use nearly 100x more water per day than datacenters, nearly 2b gallons per day. [1]

Residential lawn water usage is ~9b gallons per day. [0]

0 - https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/www3/watersense/docs/f...

1 - https://www.usga.org/content/dam/usga/pdf/Water%20Resource%2...

celestialcheese··on Ghostty is leaving GitHub
Azure migration is the most plausible explanation I've heard. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45517173
celestialcheese··on Anthropic takes legal action against OpenCode
My guess is that the telemetry data they can collect from interacting with claude code is the "secret sauce" behind a lot of the improvements we're seeing with coding models right now. Look at cursors Composer-2 release today. Clicking "accept" during plan mode, committing changes and pushing to a remote repo, etc. is a really strong reward signal.

Can't collect telemetry from applications you don't control.

celestialcheese··on Honda is killing its EVs
Private aviation.
celestialcheese··on 1M context is now generally available for Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6
Both. Employer pays for work max 20x, i pay for a personal 10x for my side projects and personal stuff.
celestialcheese··on Ask HN: How are people doing AI evals these days?
mix of promptfoo and ad-hoc python scripts, with langfuse observability.

Definitely not happy with it, but everything is moving too fast to feel like it's worth investing in.

celestialcheese··on OpenAI needs to raise at least $207B by 2030
It took tiktok just 5 years to go from ~no revenue to ~$12b annual in the US.

ChatGPT has roughly the same MAU as tiktok. I don't see why their ad business wouldn't meet or exceed what tiktok was able to do in less than 5 years.

celestialcheese··on OpenAI needs to raise at least $207B by 2030
> Like, I've seen no sign of OpenAI building an ads team or product

You just haven't been paying attention. They hired Fidji Simo to lead applications in may, she led monetization/ads at facebook for a decade and have been staffing up aggressively with pros.

Reading between the lines in interview with wired last week[0], they're about to go all in with ads across the board, not just the free version. Start with free, expand everywhere. The monetization opportunities in chatgpt are going to make what google offers with adwords look quaint, and every CMO/performance marketer is going to go in head first. 2% is tiny IMO.

[0] - https://archive.is/n4DxY

celestialcheese··on Meta projected 10% of 2024 revenue came from scams
Google should have to make this disclosure as well. I'd guess >50% of their AdX revenue is from click-trick, fake button, scam ads. Across the board I'd expect Google's ad revenue to be at least 10% from scams, if not more.

Source: a decade of running a website monetized with adx and having to hire people to manually monitor and block scam display ads multiple times a day.

celestialcheese··on How does the US use water?
nit: Nestle sold off it's water brands in 2021 to a private equity group.[0][1]

0 - https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2025/05/09/nestle-to-s... 1 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l2Bas81NDY

celestialcheese··on How to live on $432 a month in America
It's because when you live rural like this, wood stoves are common, and wood is free.

I live in the northwest, so I can't speak to upstate NY, but downed trees on state and federal land near roads is free to take. Every day there's people posting rounds of wood for free to take.

It's hard work, but it's good exercise and rewarding.

There's some upfront investment: $200 chainsaw, an old maul, and an old pickup truck, but those amortized over a decade is practically speaking $0 heat.

celestialcheese··on New USPTO Memo Makes Fighting Patent Trolls Even Harder
Is this a real thing for small companies?

I have no experience with this, and the only time I've gone and tried to get quoted for things like cyber liability, etc, the costs are incredible relative to the value of the business and revenues.

celestialcheese··on OpenAI Audio Models
whisper-1 has this with the verbose_json output. Has word level and sentence level, works fairly well.

Looks like the new models don't have this feature yet.

celestialcheese··on Mistral Small 3
Classification, tagging tasks. Way easier than older ML techniques and very fast to implement.
celestialcheese··on Operator research preview
Locked behind their $200/mo plan - definitely too much for me with the accuracy they're showing.
celestialcheese··on Ask HN: Is anyone doing anything cool with tiny language models?
https://x.com/nikitabier/status/1867069169256308766

Again, no clue if this is true, but it seems plausible.

celestialcheese··on Ask HN: Is anyone doing anything cool with tiny language models?
Given the source, I'm skeptical it's not just a troll, but found this explanation [0] plausible as to why those vague spam text exists. If true, this trolling helps the spammers warm those phone numbers up.

0 - https://x.com/nikitabier/status/1867029883387580571

celestialcheese··on Show HN: Demo of my web game about social persuasion
This was great, I felt social anxiety and found myself getting flustered just like talking to cable company support. Could really see the potential as use in exposure therapy to overcome phone anxiety.
celestialcheese··on Denmark will plant 1B trees and convert 10% of farmland into forest
For farmers today, the choice is more stark.

I can only speak to small and medium farms, but if we're talking large horsepower cultivators / row farming, It's really a choice between keep my old pre-emissions diesel/buy a pre-2006 used tractor from auctions/marketplace for 50k, or double down and lease a 250k-400k new mid-size tractor.

You make it seem like many farmers have choices, but old "dirty" tractors are the only financial options for many without signing up for indentured servitude to JD/Case/etc

celestialcheese··on Amazon to invest another $4B in Anthropic
And access to use anthropics models internally, where you have some guarantees and oversight that your corp and customer data aren't leaking where you don't want it to.
celestialcheese··on New Mac Mini with M4
From my experience, TCO on most apple products ends up being roughly the same when you factor in resale value.

You'll be able to sell your M4 mac mini in 5 years for $150 for an instant-cash offer from backmarket or any other reseller, while you'd be lucky to get $30 for the equivalent Beelink or BOSGAME after 6 months on ebay.

celestialcheese··on We can now fix McDonald's ice cream machines
even funnier, it looks like it's owned by wendys now, so when you zoom in it highlights wendys locations nearby
celestialcheese··on Quit Social Media (2016)
It's like looking in the mirror
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