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chadashon A global house-price slump is coming?

Yes, but in this environment, I'd probably try to buy something new without selling (but renting out instead).

Also, if lots of people are buying and selling, even if aggregate demand is the same, it's a more liquid market. If I'm a first-time homebuyer, I'd rather play in a market of musical chairs then try to buy in a theater where only the dead and divorced get up from their seats.

chadashon A global house-price slump is coming?

My 30-year mortgage is locked in at 2.875%. My overall mortgage payments would go up 60% if I took out a new loan for the same amount at 7%.

On one hand, this means that prices need to come down to get houses into peoples' price ranges. On the other hand, if the market is down, there's no way in hell that I'm selling my house. A loan at 2.875% is almost like having free money, so even if I need to move, I'd prefer to rent out my house than sell it.

It's unclear if we will see low prices, but fewer sellers, or high prices, but fewer buyers. What's clear though is that this is going to be a low liquidity housing market without a lot of transactions.

chadashon Cloud services like AWS or Google Cloud Platform may be the wrong choice

Required? No, I'm not saying that. But yes, it's become the industry standard. If you don't know some AWS basics and you are a generalist web developer, you'd probably do well to learn them in order to make yourself a more marketable engineer.

There are plenty of good alternatives, but AWS is the 800-pound gorilla. You have to know at least a little bit about it in order to know why not to use it.

It's like saying you don't want to use React/Angular/Vue for your web app. There are good reasons not to, but at this point you should at least have some experience with web frameworks before making a technical decision not to use them. If your answer is "I don't know them and I don't want to learn them", that's fine for a personal project, but probably not a reason not to use them at your full-time startup. If your reason is "I know React, but for my specific use case, vanilla HTML/CSS/JS is better" then you are making a more informed decision.

chadashon Cloud services like AWS or Google Cloud Platform may be the wrong choice

I don't know. Maybe I'm in a bubble, but it seems to me that knowing the basics of AWS (or some cloud provider) has become part of the standard developer's toolkit. With AWS specifically, there's so much documentation out there about getting started that I think you can have something up in a day or two on something like ECS or lambda (using something like the Serverless framework). And then when you need the more complex functionality, you are already in the AWS ecosystem.

If you are a startup trying to get a product to market, AWS is typically going to be a very small cost unless you are doing something very compute intensive (in which case something like Heroku, which the author recommends, certainly won't be cheaper anyway). The high bills only come later, if ever, after you've decided to create 20 databases and 50 apps for your 70 person startup.

chadashon Magic Leap 2

I’ve tried the Magic Leap before. It’s super cool. In the demo I saw, the software scans the room and gets the shape of the area. It then sets up a coral reef in the middle of the room and you see a giant coral structure with fish swimming around in the air. The field of vision is a little bit limited but overall It’s pretty clear to me that anyone who tries this on will say “wow!”.

The problem is that while it’s a cool toy there’s nothing available that’s im aware it that would make me want to spend much money on it. Right now, it’s more of a cool toy to show off at parties.

So the issue with a video on the website is:

a) it would be hard to have a video that doesn’t oversell or undersell it. Imagine advertising a TV in a magazine to an audience who has never seen a TV before.

b) more importantly, if the goal is to sell enterprise then you are now a sales company, not a marketing company. For b2b businesses a website just needs to look professional enough… No one is actually going to look at it. The sales process is higher touch and will be done either offline or via email brochures.

chadashon Ask HN: 10k hours rule to master anything. Could I switch career when I am 43?

> The first bit of advice is to recognize that you, like almost everyone else who discusses "the 10,000 hour rule" (and what it means regarding "practice" and "mastery") have completely failed to understand what the actual author meant, so you do yourself and everyone else a favor by dropping the subject.

It would be helpful if you can explain why people misunderstand this rule or at least point to somewhere that does rather than essentially saying, "you don't know what the 10k rule is".

chadashon Citrix acquired and merged with Tibco for $16.5B

Can you elaborate on why conditions will be good for M&A?

chadashon Twilio CEO: Layoffs were carried out through an Anti-Racist/Anti-Oppression lens

"The U.S. Supreme Court has recognized an exception to Title VII’s protections from discrimination in industries where employers can establish a historical imbalance or disparity in the workforce. In United Steelworkers of America, AFL-CIO-CLC v. Weber, 443 US 193 (1979), the Supreme Court considered an affirmative action program that was implemented to increase the amount of black skilled craft workers. Half of the positions in the training program were reserved for black workers. Because this training scheme was intended to eliminate longstanding patterns of racial segregation and Title VII “did not inten[d] to prohibit the private sector from taking effective steps” to ensure the goal to prevent discrimination was implemented, the program was upheld. This same theory was applied to the underrepresentation of women in Johnson v. Transp. Agency, Santa Clara Cnty., Cal., 480 U.S. 616 (1987). A male worker had challenged the agency’s selection of a female worker over him. Here, the court upheld the Santa Clara County Transportation Agency’s plan to “achieve a statistically measurable yearly improvement in hiring and promoting minorities and women in job classification where they are underrepresented.” Where no specific number or quota was required but short-range goals were implemented and adjusted yearly, the agency could permissibly take sex into account as one factor in deciding whether to promote women."

source: http://www.epspros.com/news-resources/white-papers/2020/the-...

chadashon Twilio CEO: Layoffs were carried out through an Anti-Racist/Anti-Oppression lens

Of course. Sometimes companies do things that are blatantly illegal and they know it. Usually they don't put these things down in SEC filings. For example, I'm sure that many hedge funds routinely trade on insider information and know that what they are doing is illegal. Most are smart enough not to publicize this.

In this case, my point is not that this is legal or illegal. My point is that they probably ran this by their lawyers and at the very least those lawyers probably said "yeah, you have a reasonable case if this goes to court". If the lawyers said "yeah, this is definitely illegal, you are going to get sued, it's an easy case and you are going to lose", then sure, it's possible that Twilio decided to do this anyway, but I don't see that as likely. They probably have at least a legal theory on why this is permissible.

chadashon Twilio CEO: Layoffs were carried out through an Anti-Racist/Anti-Oppression lens

I am skeptical that a company the size of Twilio wouldn't run this by employment lawyers first. Do you have any sources to cite here?

chadashon Increase: Banking API

    curl -X "POST" \
      --url https://api.increase.com/check_transfers \
      -H "Authorization: Bearer ${INCREASE_API_KEY}" \
      -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
      -d $'{
        "account_id": "account0",
        "address_line1": "33 Liberty Street",
        "address_city": "New York",
        "address_state": "NY",
        "address_zip": "10045",
        "amount": 1000,
        "message": "Check payment",
        "recipient_name": "Ian Crease"
      }'

Well it would certainly be nice if I can send a rent check from my command line!

chadashon Increase: Banking API

> Accounts are eligible to receive interest on balances. The interest rate is the Federal Funds Target Rate less 50 basis points with a floor of 0%.

Target rate right now is 2.25-2.50%, so i'm guessing that you are subtracting 50 BP from the lower end, so that's 1.75%. That's actually pretty good for a bank right now (not the highest, but certainly on the higher end.

One thing that's unclear... is this a checking account, savings, etc.?

chadashon Serge Daney on Coppola’s Apocalypse Now (1979)

The parent would agree that Roger Ebert is notable. But s/he is arguing that legendary should have a higher bar. Shakespeare, for example, died 400 years ago, but is commonly known today. There are many other examples. But it's hard to imagine that Roger Ebert will be well known in 100 years from now.

chadashon Framework Laptop 2.5Gbps Ethernet Expansion Card

Nice! Except I see that ethernet is a bit too large to fit the body, so this hangs a bit off of the side.

Is there an advantage to this over an external ethernet to USB-C adapter (e.g. https://www.amazon.com/Anker-Ethernet-Portable-1-Gigabit-Chr...)? These days, I find that when using my laptop at home, a decent USB-C hub/dock is pretty much a pre-requisite given the number of things I need to connect (for me, monitor + mouse + keyboard + webcam + webcam light) and many of these have ethernet adapters built in anyway (which I don't personally use since my WiFi is fast enough).

chadashon Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

> We had landing rockets in the 80's, but Boom was trying to do several things that are completely new. SpaceX's real technology is about launching the rockets cheaply, not re-using them (which is only part of the problem).

And we had supersonic passenger jets in the 60's. But they weren't economically viable. I'd argue that Boom is trying to do exactly what SpaceX is doing for rockets, which is to make supersonic air travel make economic sense. Any engineering that they need to do is really towards that goal.

chadashon Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

SpaceX, yes. But I think some of these other examples work against your point. Yes, some of them have raised lots of money (or even sold for lots of money), but revenue for Cruise + Commonwealth Fusion + Heart combined (I haven't heard of Canvas) is about $0 so far. It's yet to be seen if any are viable businesses even if they have already invented cool shit. To your point above, Boeing is not in the venture capital business. Their investors most likely want dividends and stock buybacks, not capital intensive moonshot bets.

chadashon Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

I agree with you, but to play devil's advocate, what if I changed your comment to:

Agreed. I know nothing about automotive engineering or car design, but the hype around Tesla always puzzled me. If this start up can all of a sudden make an economical electric car, then surely the existing automotive manufacturers could do it quicker and cheaper. Toyota, Mercedes, Ford, etc... already have existing designs from decades past that they could at least use as a base. They have experts in material science, car design, and actual resources/contracts to actually build one. If it made sense.

Sometimes the incumbents are just too entrenched in what they are doing to make what out an outsider sees as an obvious move.

chadashon The most-regretted (and lowest-paying) college majors

The value of a specific major could go up tremendously based on which school you went to. For example, for earning potential alone, I'll take an English degree from University of Pennsylvania over a business degree from 2nd-tier State School X. If my child were going to U of Penn, I'd even tell them to avoid Wharton undergrad, where the grading curve is harder than in liberal arts there, which could make your job prospects worse. At top schools, the degree itself (especially with a high GPA) is worth a ton, regardless of what you major in. The lower down on the prestige rankings that you go, the more likely you'll need a "practical" major to get a high paying job.

chadashon Framework is now available in Australia

As answered elsewhere, prices for Australia are in USD and include GST so all-in are actually right around the same as you’d pay in the US (depending on your local sales tax)

chadashon Framework is now available in Australia

I really appreciate the transparency from them. They even lost out which models of RAM they have tested for compatibility so you can buy on your own. I just ordered a computer from them and I sourced those parts separately for something like $70 savings but I’m actually having second thoughts because

1) if I source from them I’m more positive that they’d be able to help me if I have problems within the warranty period, so maybe saving $70 on a $1600 purchase isn’t worthwhile

2) peace of mind vs the mess of counterfeits from Amazon third party sellers

3) they are a small company and I want them and help them to succeed because I love what they are trying to do (but also, selfishly, I need them to stick around if I want to order parts in the future)

chadashon Framework is now available in Australia

If you go to their site and select a region, it looks like prices are the prices for that region in the local currency. It’s a little bit more expensive to buy a laptop in Australia (starting price on DIY 12th gen is ~$870 USD vs ~$820 in the US, but that’s seems reasonable given tremendous currency fluctuations lately, plus added cost of servicing a smaller market.

chadashon Will I Ever See the $36MM Oberlin College Owes Me?

Without getting into the facts of the case itself, I’ll take the word of the article’s author that she won the lawsuit and the two appeals. Is there not a mechanism for enforcing payment? I get it if the defendant doesn’t actually have the money. But can’t the court go to the college’s banks and force the transfer? The fact that that isn’t happening makes me feel like I’m missing part of the story.

chadashon Ask HN: Why hasn't the ACH system been more abused?

I just want to be able to get a refund if the toaster that I ordered doesn't get delivered. How would crypto go about doing that without it being in the sole discretion of the seller?

chadashon Ask HN: Why hasn't the ACH system been more abused?

The parent is referring to reversibility without both parties agreeing. I send merchant money from my bank to buy widget. Merchant doesn’t send me widget. Bank can reverse transaction without needing merchant permission. And the buck stops with the courts who can enforce the final action.

chadashon Effective altruism as a tower of assumptions

10% might be arbitrary but it seems to be a number that people have found to be reasonable for over 2000 years, so it is well tested. If you go too low then less money goes to charity. Too high and people brush it off as unreasonable.

On a side note, Judaism has a 10% min but also a 20% max (but which doesn’t necessarily apply to the very wealthy).

chadashon Ex-Twitter exec blows the whistle, alleging reckless cybersecurity policies

Two problems with this:

1) Like a car mechanic, these people get paid to sell you solutions and they are incentivized to sell you more.

2) Plenty or honest people have biases because of what they do. If you spend all day thinking about security you might be overly concerned about things that are actually not that risky.

This isn’t to say that there aren’t great people working in the field. But it’s daunting from an outsiders perspective.

chadashon Nobody wants to teach anymore

> Disruptive children are caused by parents who frankly just don’t give a shit. Throwing more money into schools won’t ever fix this problem.

I was a disruptive child and my parents were the opposite of people who didn’t give a shit. Both of them highly valued education and spent plenty of time with me. they just had to contend with a child who wasn’t well behaved at school and it was genetics more than anything they did. They spent thousands of dollars on therapists and medicines and it didn’t help that much. Luckily for me, puberty seemed to turn things around and I ended up doing well in high school and very well in college (at a good school). Now I’ve got two little trouble makers of my own and it’s pretty obvious to me where they got those genes from.

I agree that dealing with problematic kids is a pain in the ass for teachers and I do try to thank them when I see them, and I even agree that parenting is often the issue, but a lot of it is genetics and luck.

chadashon The existence of the 50-year mortgage shows lenders are desperate

I don’t think this is quite right. If the interest rates are low enough, even the most financially savvy people will take this deal. For example, I have a friend who can easily afford to pay cash on a $1 million house, but he has a 30 year mortgage. Why? Because his mortgage rate is 2.5%. He can take his money and put it into Stocks or other investments and get a much better return than 2.5%. If he were truly risk-averse, he can even put the money in long term treasuries and make more than 2.5. At low enough rates, it always pays to have a loan. It’s (almost) free money.

Edit: at current interest rates this advice makes less sense, but even so, it could pay in some situations. For example maybe your mortgage is 4.5% but your student loans are 7.5%. Take the mortgage and pay down those loans. Obviously too much debt is bad, but not all debt.

chadashon What Beirut was like before the war (2019)

We talk a lot about separation of powers, the constitution, etc. in the US, but until pretty recently, we failed to appreciate the fact that democracy is largely a cultural thing. It works because we believe it works.

Go and read the Soviet Constitution of 1936 (Stalin) [1]. It talks about freedom of speech, freedom of press, assembly, demonstrations. It actually goes much further than the US constitution. It talks about the right to rest and leisure. Old age care. Education.

We all know that the reality of life under Stalin didn't quite live up to this. A constitution is just a piece of paper. It doesn't mean anything unless it is enforced. That's why I think we focus too much on things like originalism vs living constitution... the reality is that we should be focused on maintaining our democratic institutions which no longer look as secure as they used to.

[1] http://www.departments.bucknell.edu/russian/const/1936toc.ht...

chadashon Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

Is this really true though? Sure a tech worker can move to rural Arkansas and live very easily, but in general, housing prices often correlate with local wages and most people can’t work remotely.