charbonneau2

A different view [1]:

> In the new study, Belgian and German researchers claim that the virus infects sustentacular cells but not OSNs [olfactory sensory neurons]. “That is just a critical distinction,” said the senior author Peter Mombaerts, who directs the Max Planck Research Unit for Neurogenetics in Frankfurt, Germany. “Once you believe that olfactory neurons can be infected, there is a quick route into the olfactory bulb and then you’re in the brain already.”

> Nobody doubts that the central nervous system is affected by the disease; the debate concerns whether these effects are due to the virus infecting neurons or some more indirect mechanism, such as an inflammatory response in the blood irrigating the brain – with different implications for prognosis and treatment.

[1] Covid-19 virus does not infect human brain cells, study suggests; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/03/covid-19-virus...

Le Système technicien, 1977: We wish to go on living in an outmoded society with institutions, morals, a system of values rendered obsolescent by science and technique, and already nearly annihilated. We wish to hold them as valid while science and technique demonstrate that they are nothing anymore, devoid of any meaning or basis. It is by sticking to old values and refusing to recognize new values, the ethics of science (and of technique), that man makes himself unhappy. All we have to do is adopt the ethics of knowledge (first adding that of action), and everything will be all right. The discord in man, the new society created by technique, the new universe known by science will be appeased.

Tired:

> Xi also wants to use AI’s awesome analytical powers to push China to the cutting edge of surveillance. He wants to build an all-seeing digital system of social control, patrolled by precog algorithms that identify potential dissenters in real time [1]

Inspired:

> In the future, public health officials could use machine learning for early detection of vaccine hesitancy on social media. Then they could use algorithms to automatically distribute targeted information and go on the offense against the spread of health-related misinformation.

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/china-a...

Related thread:

https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1455646142184763396

> Some people will consider the benefits here outweighing the risks while others might conclude the opposite. That's fine.

> But acting like we're in a hysteria because of recommendations to get vaccinated drawn from studies showing it makes sense is itself hysteria.

IMO, the emotional response (or hysteria) stems from the fact that debatable recommendations are currently being used to justify mandates ("SF will soon require everyone 5 and older to show vaccination proof for restaurants, theaters, Warriors games"), therefore prohibiting people from outweighing the risks on their own.

Reading the same studies, health officials could come to the creative conclusion that, due to the "considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the potential harms", all children should be banned from getting a vaccine or be forced to pay higher insurance rates.

> Studies have shown that the complications due to the vaccine are basically nothing other than arm pain and do decrease that chance of death. Studies have shown it's worth it for children to take the vaccine regardless of questions of spread.

Not sure if the risk/benefit ratio for vaccinating children is so clear-cut. A pre-print study from University of California, for example, "suggests that boys aged 12 to 15, with no underlying medical conditions, [might be] four to six times more likely to be diagnosed with vaccine-related myocarditis than ending up in hospital with Covid over a four-month period" [1].

The UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) "is of the opinion that the benefits from vaccination are marginally greater than the potential known harms [...] but acknowledges that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the potential harms. The margin of benefit, based primarily on a health perspective, is considered too small to support advice on a universal programme of vaccination of otherwise healthy 12 to 15-year-old children at this time. As longer-term data on potential adverse reactions accrue, greater certainty may allow for a reconsideration of the benefits and harms." [2]

That's also why Pfizer announced that "long-term safety of COVID-19 vaccine in participants 5 to <12 years of age will be studied in 5 post-authorization safety studies, including a 5-year follow-up study to evaluate long term sequelae of post-vaccination myocarditis/pericarditis." [3]

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/10/boys-more-at-r...

[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/jcvi-statement-se...

[3] https://www.fda.gov/media/153409/download

> This is a logic fallacy, but I don't know the name of it. "We all agree that all students can't have a penthouse. So why do you care if we stuff them in windowless rooms?"

False dichotomy

2022-02-14: SF will soon require everyone 6 months and older to show vaccination proof

Thank you!

I've seen the current state analysis before, but imo, it's hard to tell how many unvaccinated 20-30 year olds (with/without comorbidities) were affected (slide 11 combines ages 18-49).

The article mentions that "it’s now commonplace for previously healthy, younger adults with decades of life expectancy on the line to be among the sickest of the sick" but shows no data.

> "We don't know the long-term effects" -> triggering an immune response is extremely quick in terms of effects. Any issues (eg the highly unlikely potential clotting issue in Astra-Zeneca) are actually identified quickly.

To flatly disregard long-term effects seems quite premature. The adjusted risk for narcolepsy in younger people, following exposure to adjuvanted A(H1N1) pandemic vaccine (Pandemrix) in 2009 for example, seemed to be "increased 14 times during the first year after vaccination, three times elevated the second year" [1].

Regarding the current vaccines, Pfizer informed the FDA, that "long-term safety of COVID-19 vaccine in participants 5 to <12 years of age will be studied in 5 post-authorization safety studies, including a 5-year follow-up study to evaluate long term sequelae of post-vaccination myocarditis/pericarditis" [2].

> "Just vaccinate the people at risk" -> we don't really know who they are, particularly in young people.

We also don't really know who is at risk of getting vaccine-related side effects, particularly in young people. A pre-print study from University of California "suggests that boys aged 12 to 15, with no underlying medical conditions, are four to six times more likely to be diagnosed with vaccine-related myocarditis than ending up in hospital with Covid over a four-month period" [3]. This is not a fact, but definitely a call for further studies.

> "This was rushed" -> Actually, it wasn't. DARPA had promoted mRNA vaccine research for years before Covid-19

From my perspective, people seem to be mostly concerned with rushed clinical trials, not prior research. Scientists repeatedly told the public that, despite the speed, "the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines currently in use have been rigorously tested" [4].

"But, for researchers who were testing Pfizer’s vaccine at several sites in Texas during that autumn, speed may have come at the cost of data integrity and patient safety. A regional director who was employed at the research organisation Ventavia Research Group has told The BMJ that the company falsified data, unblinded patients, employed inadequately trained vaccinators, and was slow to follow up on adverse events reported in Pfizer’s pivotal phase III trial" [5]. Did it only happen at several sites in Texas? We don't really know. But it seems to be a valid concern.

[1] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/pds.4788

[2] https://www.fda.gov/media/153409/download

[3] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/10/boys-more-at-r...

[4] https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-vaccine-clot-idUSL...

[5] https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2635

> During the Delta wave, the hospitals here were full of unvaccinated 20 and 30 somethings without complicating health issues, with serious COVID, most of which would have been prevented had they been vaccinated

Source?

When it comes to health decisions, I always consult my local gang leader

Most trials fail. But many of those failures are preventable. The Lean Trial is a new approach being adopted across the globe, changing the way companies perform medical research.

The Lean Trial approach fosters companies that are both more capital efficient and that leverage human creativity more effectively. Inspired by lessons from breakthrough healthcare startups, it relies on improving data ("Falsify Until You Qualify®"), employing Pareto-trained® workers (80% of knowledge comes from 20% of training), as well as a number of counter-intuitive practices that measure actual progress without resorting to vanity metrics like adverse event reports. It enables a company to pivot with agility, deviating from protocols inch by inch, minute by minute.

> Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vaccine expert Amanda Cohn – noted that COVID-19 was the eighth-highest killer of kids in the 5-11 age group over the past year

From 2020 to October 27th 2021, there were 60,066 deaths in the age group 0-17. 558 of those deaths are related to COVID-19. That's 0.93% (or: 99.1% of deaths happened due to other causes) [1].

The leading cause of deaths in this age group are accidents [2]. A lot of these accidents seem to be preventable [3].

> She pointed out that children are continuing to be hospitalized and to die or otherwise suffer adverse long-term effects from a largely vaccine-preventable disease.

No severe COVID-19 cases were reported in children 5 to <12 years of age as of the data cutoff date (08 October 2021). No cases of MIS-C were reported as of the data cutoff date [4].

> Cases in children rapidly increased during the delta variant surge, which coincided with the opening of in-person school across much of the country. Children now account for a quarter of new weekly cases.

Are cases in children increasing because in-person school leads to more infections or because it leads to more tests? Or both? Do children account for a quarter of new weekly cases because more infections occur or because in-person school leads to more testing & a substantial amount of adults are vaccinated (therefore don't need to be tested)? Or both?

> While severe disease and hospitalization from COVID-19 are far more rare in children than in adults, intensive care admission and the need for invasive ventilation do occur in children.

They do occur. Just as they did occur during the flu seasons (17/18, 18/19, 19/20), often at a higher rate [5, slide 10]. In children 5-11, there were 66 COVID-19 associated deaths 10/3/20-19/2/2021. In 2019, 66 committed suicide. 84 died of influenza and pneumonia [5, slide 16].

> The pandemic has also harmed children’s social, emotional and mental well-being and delayed their education progress.

The pandemic or the pandemic measures? Or both?

-

COVID-19 associated deaths/hospitalizations/long-term effects in children exist. Regarding their relevance, I hope parents will have the right to choose their actions without being put under pressure.

-

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/child-health.htm

[3] https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/baby/first-aid-and-safety/safe...

[4] Page 67: https://www.fda.gov/media/153409/download

[5] https://www.fda.gov/media/153508/download

I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill

I think both you & GP share many similarities, the main difference being your perceived risk of COVID-19.

GP acknowledges the disease but concludes that, due to the high chance of survival, mandates are unwarranted.

You acknowledge the 99% chance of survival but conclude that, due to the high (and still growing) number of deaths, civic duty is needed.

At which point would GP perceive "people's freedom" as "self centered selfishness"?

At which point would you perceive "civic duty" as "shameless propaganda"?

From 2020 to October 20th 2021, there were 59,268 deaths in the age group 0-17. 542 of those deaths are related to COVID-19. That's 0.91% (or: 99.1% of deaths happened due to other causes) [1]

The leading cause of deaths in this age group are accidents [2]. A lot of these accidents seem to be preventable [3].

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/child-health.htm

[3] https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/baby/first-aid-and-safety/safe...

> life for the vaccinated would “be about the maintenance of your vaccination status”

Raison d'être

Another example of "extensive unassailable and striking evidence": A death rate comparison between Romania, Bulgaria (low vax rate: 30.5% & 20%) and other EU countries (high vax rate >65%) [1].

The evidence looks "striking", but when you start to cherry pick other EU countries, the evidence becomes ambiguous [2]. Germany's vax rate is 66.2%. Poland's 52.3%. Slovakia's 42%. Yet, they all share a similar death rate.

Does that mean that there's no difference between 42% and 66.2%? Or does it mean that it's pointless to compare death rates between countries with different demographics, health care, etc..?

[1] https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/14524639992164597...

[2] https://imgur.com/a/tFC0wzV

> Fructose is known to induce uric acid production by increasing ATP degradation to AMP, a uric acid precursor (85, 93, 94) and thus, within minutes after fructose infusion, serum uric acid levels rise (94).

The Epidemiology of Uric Acid and Fructose - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3197219/

You perform an observational study, not adjusted for "baseline health status, underlying conditions, health care utilization, and socioeconomic status". You get a 3.2x difference in mortality. Still, you decide to publish it. Great job!

No worries, we will not vaccinate you against your will. There will be no mandate. A negative rapid antigen test result is deemed equivalent to a proof of vaccination.

* Of course, the test must be carried out by a service provider pursuant to section 123 (4) of the "Ordinance on SARS-CoV-2 Testing". Due to a decreasing need in testing, there will be of course less and less service providers in your area.

* Of course, the test result must pertain to a test taken no earlier than 24 hours. Please arrange enough time (the result is usually available within 15 to 60 minutes) before or after work to obtain your test result (business hours: 8am - 5:30pm).

* Of course, since free vaccinations are now available to all, it is no longer acceptable for taxpayers to bear the costs of the tests on a permanent basis. An antigen test costs about 15 to 30 dollars on average. A decreasing need in testing might of course lead to higher costs in the future.

It is your choice.

Google Scholar reports about 8.390 uses of the phrase "sterilizing immunity"; the frequency suggests it is a common phrase:

> Sterilizing immunity is a unique immune status, which prevents effective virus infection into the host. It is different from the immunity that allows infection but with subsequent successful eradication of the virus [1]

When people talk about "sterilizing vaccines", they mean "vaccines that induce sterilizing immunity", which means "vaccines which prevent effective virus infection into the host".

[1] Influenza: https://doi.org/10.1038/srep32973

> Seems to underscore my point that the available information about immunity longevity is mixed at best

The currently available information shows mixed evidence. But the vaccine campaign began in December/January 2021. Back then, BioNTech's CEO believed the protective effect would last "for at least a year"[1] (Booster shots gained traction in April/May [2], though they were mainly presented as a way to protect against new variants, not waning immunity in general).

Waning immunity was never really a topic (until now). You can also see its complete disregard in the "EU Digital COVID Certificate" [3]. Recovered persons are exempt from restrictions for 180 days, fully vaccinated persons indefinitely.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccin...

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-...

[3] https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-re...

> It continues: “In primary schools, the use of face masks is recommended for teachers and other adults when physical distancing cannot be guaranteed, but it is not recommended for students.”

This quote is from the first version of the ECDC "COVID-19 in children and the role of school settings in COVID-19 transmission" document from August 2020.

In the latest version (2nd update, July 2021), there is no mention of it anymore.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/children-and...

> Preventing COVID-19 will not only provide direct health benefits to children 5 to <12 years of age, but indirect educational and social development benefits can be anticipated based on alleviating the disruption to in-person education caused by COVID-19 outbreaks in school settings. Facilitating the return to school may also have associated economic and social benefits for children’s families.

https://www.fda.gov/media/153409/download

> From the viewpoint of our innate capacities for cooperation, both [INSERT NAME OF LEADER]’s practical responses and his emotional framing are to be expected. We do not need to see these actions in a negative or even authoritarian light. They are not simply the workings of our political system. They are rooted in our ancient past, helping us survive.

NYTimes, June 28, 2021 [1]:

> Pfizer and Moderna Vaccines Likely to Produce Lasting Immunity, Study Finds

> The vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna set off a persistent immune reaction in the body that may protect against the coronavirus for years, scientists reported on Monday.

> Exactly how long the protection from mRNA vaccines will last is hard to predict. In the absence of variants that sidestep immunity, in theory immunity could last a lifetime, experts said. But the virus is clearly evolving.

> “Anything that would actually require a booster would be variant-based, not based on waning of immunity,” Dr. Bhattacharya said. “I just don’t see that happening.”

Pfizer, September 17, 2021 [2]:

> A retrospective cohort study conducted at Kaiser Permanente Southern California suggests that the observed erosion in vaccine effectiveness is likely primarily due to waning effectiveness rather than due to Delta escaping vaccine protection

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/28/health/coronavirus-vaccin...

[2] https://www.fda.gov/media/152161/download