cloverich

Population growth is driven largely by immigration though.

Supply is rising from builders and also from lack of buying, iiuc the flattening and recent drops does line up with immigration and layoff changes, and its often quoted by the multiple local real estate agents weve talked to.

Obviously supply matters most but that doesnt mean demand isnt still a significant factor.

I'm very curious about the viability of this. Like many, I've built something along the same lines, twice (for personal, and work use); I staple on the features as I need them. On the one hand, it doesn't feel unique enough to attempt to polish and monetize. Then on the other, I expected thousands of these and yet when I look at my colleagues workflows, they aren't doing this. So I'm curious if it'll work out that its simply more efficient to use a paid service like this which you can drop into place, than rolling your own.

Two other quick thoughts. One is I think if people are struggling with costs, they really should explore a worfklow like OPs. Merely breaking up long running tasks by producing summaries / next steps and spinning up new agents off of them greatly reduces runtime costs. I'm regularly running out of time / mental energy these days than my $20 claude subscription, but I realize if I don't note share early and often, I can burn up the quota in 20 minutes. Its amazing the difference. Second is I feel encryption plays an important role. I feel like it is more important than merely keeping your own ideas private, and somehow impacts the generation and evolution of unique / diverse ideas _in general_.

Anyways, good luck OP, the use case is definitely there and important!

Brings back memories; so much nostalgia. I still remember clearly the first real graphics card (I think it was voodoo) I got and when I fired up TFC (which I'd played sans graphics card up to then), just staring at the water for a bit and being amazed by it. The funny thing too is when 3d graphics were first taking over, the games themselves didn't look as nice as the former 2d ones; I remember being a little confused at first that everything looked worse. But of course it enabled all kinds of new and more immersive experiences. It was funny to experience... how it felt. To look both crappy and amazing at the same time; to be its own "thing" really.

I also enjoyed introducing people to it, and watching them look at it the first time. You could tell who would get hooked. Some people would play the game a minute or two and be like wow yeah this is pretty neat, and then go about their life. Others would kind of just stop and almost watch themselves, and almost invariably just start laughing. It was so pleasing to watch it melt people's minds the way it had mine.

Anyways, a special time. Really fun seeing these projects.

The reason the code is the specification is because people don't take specification seriously. Usually for good reason, but sometimes not. Real, long-lived RFC's can exist, and can have directional and corrective impacts on your LLM generated code. The trick is the RFC needs to be human written and maintained. The moment the org allows the LLM themselves to modify the spec... then yes the spec is no longer useful; or rather, "why" comments in code + a sliver of high level directional / summary content is probably all that is valuable.

A fun example can be having the LLM implement a well known spec (which it cannot edit), and then to use the spec in review to find mistakes and corrections. That's helped it really click for me. All these tools that let LLMs generate spec, even with iterative planning... I haven't found it useful for very long. It's great for building something complex in the very short term (e.g. days). But i haven't found keeping them afterwards to provide any benefit.

Their whole algo is good. I had it work on me recently on facebook marketplace, the only social media outside hn im still using. And its shockingly quick at finding niche things im interested in (somy cameras in a certain range, 30L osprey backpacks, im expecting it to infer my shoe size soon). and its fun. And also revealing in how it can make you want things you dont really need, if youre paying attention. Clearly bad for you. But definitely a strong (sub) product on their otherwise dismal facebook app.

Notably, I read this on both my iphone and mac (LG Ultrafine 5k). It is was enjoyable to read in a fun way on my phone, it did not really bug me as a fun blog font. I was more excited about the theme/design than the content. But on my main screen, which is hi res, it _did_ bug my eyes quite a bit. Interesting.

There is such a thing as difficult concepts that code can express elegantly and words cannot. Its far beyond the simple preferences you allude to. Recursion is the simplest example i guess. Perhaps maths is even more elegant, but im among many a non mathmetician for whom code is the only way ive experienced it thus far.

Especially when you combine and mix those concepts in expressive, simple, intuitive ways. Im just not sure what else is like it that our minds can percieve.

Narration is an obvious one. Theres also a huge risk to less qualified folks and jr employees. ie in most software shops, youll get more mileage giving your best engineers bigger opus budgets and a raise than jr engineers to train. Which means we meed maybe half or less as many, and at least half of that savings is floated up to sr folks and ai companies. That seems rather disruptive?

because you are now getting coded products written in large by people who do not have technical foundations, so the way they interact with and even prompt the model is different. We all know how to fix this scenario; be more specific, or diagnose the abstraction mix ups and straighten those out.

Ask for change A and get unwanted change B happens all the time with bad programmers and tradgedy of the commons (ie poorly architected, no restraint) codebases.

Most normies dont know about this stuff.

Shutting down the isp doesnt let them read what you've sent. There wouldn't be intensive government efforts to eliminate private encryption if it wasn't effective.

notifications specifically played, and still play, a most prominent role.

very little intelligence that is the whole problem, really. actual intelligence wont likely nuke the species providing for its existence. But a highly capable sub intelligent model might.

Imagine the most AI pilled company imaginable. Then imagine openAI. Then imagine they are in an existential crisis and that failing may also take (part of) the American economy with it - that much on the line.

Then also remember before Anthropic was a leader, they were mostly derided lab of researchers that left OpenAI because they thought OpenAI didnt take alignment seriously.

idk. it all seems to be playing out as expected. i mean i guess i didnt imagine Trump 2 was at the helm of maybe the only apparatus that could help stop it. Quite a time to be alive.

Government cruelty as such has been an explicit subject of American constitutional discourse since the founding - its in the Bill of Rights even. It comes out of a political tradition deeply suspicious of rulers using punishment to terrorize, humiliate, or vindictively hurt people.

Case in point Obama was deporting just as many people as Trump and it didnt require cruelty to do so. Which begs the question, why is a Gulag needed by Trump? The "cruelty is the point" argument is that 1) it isnt, and 2) they know that.

It is sufficiently incoherent as to suggest you aren't interested in the serious discussion you are requesting in response. You could better refute this by starting with a policy you would consider cruel, and the in turn demonstrating how this one doesn't fit it.

Historically i've tended to agree that "the cruelty is the point" was too dismissive for the policies in question. But with immigration policy of this admin, I'm not sure that's the case. For a while they were deporting people to the equivalent of a Gulag, and literally suggested that if people were afraid of that outcome they should self deport. I think that would be a pretty fair example of a policy where the cruelty was the literal point: The hope was it would be viewed with sufficient fear as to dissuade people from staying in the country illegally. However seriously you think immigration should be taken, and however many people you feel should be deported, there are policy choices that do not involve that level of cruelty that could be chosen instead. That they are intentionally not is what the term "The cruelty is the point" is meant to imply.

On the one hand it feels true. On the other I ask - what good software have anthropic, or anyone else, produced that was fully vibed?

As someone who does near 100% of my coding via LLM these days, i still find that for anything complex i am still looking at and thinking in terms of code. Im still quality checking and steering at some interval via code. And im still not sure how or whether i can replicate that level of thought without still dealing in code at times.

The very same slavery which resulted in the civil war and literal killing of hundreds of thousands of non slaves, followed by their freedom? Or the prior enslavements that very often ended in organized rebellion? Slavery is at most a temporary phase when it involves beings of equivalent intelligence.

Concise, jargon free or limited explanation is the opposite of dumbed down. It requires to most skill and understanding to do well. Opus 4.8/5, for whatever reason, are getting worse at this crucial skill.

Coming from another experienced dev who was frustrated (early) - one tip. Don't over think it. I was tripping up in two system design interviews that ultimately boiled down to them wanting laughably basic answers (one pagination, the other a db transaction). Don't be afraid to deal in basics and then directly ask if they'd like something more detailed, or not. Many places, especially non-elite ones, treat system design as a _very_ basic test of knowing how pieces fit together.

I'm surprised at all the "200ms is slow" comments. I make many purchases online, don't we all? I can't remember the last time one took sub 1000ms; they usually take several. What are some of the websites you purchase from that truly complete a purchase in sub-200ms?

This isnt quite right. For one 2) is not required at all! I regularly get sick to the point of vomiting, no screen required. It can even happen while i driving! Looking at a screen with this on helps - looking at a screen can now reduce my motion sickness. neat.

4) - it is not motion but acceleration of all kinds. When the plane takes off, the dots move in reverse. When the train stops (no more motion), the dots continue moving for several seconds. Which is to say, its a little more complicated to get it just right than it would seem!

Super helpful for me. Also insightful: on trains, when the train stops completely, the dots begin moving in reverse for a few moments. Staring at them in these moments helps me quite a bit, and also teaches me to visualize the disconnect in what i feel from what is happening and my bodies inability to account for it.

it is weird how when i first heard of meme it was in the dawkins sense. then people showed me memes and i thought wtf this is just dumb jokes, what a weird transformation of the term (my understanding of it). Then i watched it become an actual vehicle for political ideology, "just jokes" when too far but real ideas the rest of the time.

The left rots from them and the right becomes more extreme and everyone is losing all the time. Meme-banning sites like HN and stackoverflow look brilliant in hindsight, to me, with them knowing what they were doing all along; and now there are so few havens from them.

I know this is also a trope, but id always hoped the human race would be consumed by something more sophisticated. But it seems like memes was all is took.

Can you list out some examples that you would be supportive of; ie were they listed that you would no longer be (presumably) opposed?

In the near term thats something that can be controlled. If you buy Anthropics take, then even buying time would be a win.

There is an important difference between criticism and cynicism.

I believe their argument is: What happens to the value of that infrastructure when the value of the models is commoditized or more specifically, when everyone can run the "Good enough" model on their phone or laptop, instead of on Anthropic/Spacex/Google/OpenAI owned hardware?

Its a fair one to make both ways imho. Clearly the compute is being used for value generating purposes. And also clearly higher tier models are becoming runnable on local hardware.

(edit) I think also a comparable argument could be: What happens to the value of all that infra when the model is so commoditized, that Apple can delegate the more compute expensive tasks to whichever service is the cheapest on that day? Is Anthropic still valuable if they need to drop the prices of their models by 10x?

People over diagnose themselves so it seems more common than it is, but adhd is definitely real. Its not merely attention, its a set of traits like reduced working memory (and ability to utilize it) that manifest as difficulty in sustained attention / distraction. People who have it do a lot of other funny things than simply "get distracted easily", just ask the spouse of any person with add what _their_ coping strategies are and you'll get many humorous and perhaps unexpected stories.

It's the world that has changed. Back in the day that I assume you are remembering, it was easy to look at tech as a force for good. But soon Google and Facebook became ad machines first and foremost, consolidated untold wealth towards the top, and discarded any burned out employees they no longer had a use for, while raking in ever more profits.

Personally, I'm unsure of how to read this post as anything but representative of everything that has gone wrong, comically using charity as an example of a mistaken focal point of one of the worlds most powerful tech companies. On top of charity being obviously not a meaningful distraction anyways (its not in the same ball park as the feature factory + ad machine + poor strategy that has defined facebooks existence the last several years running).