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cmogni1

542 karma · joined March 18, 2018

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cmogni1··on SubQ 1.1 Small
I don't mean to be shady, but there are plenty of details that they did release that show that they don't know what they're doing.

They make comparisons to FlashAttention-2 when FlashAttention-4 has been out (even if they wanted to stick to Hopper class GPUs for whatever reason there's still FlashAttention-3). The two orders of magnitude claim look like they're for prefill not next-token decoding, which is a bit duplicitous. Long context extrapolation experiments typically go well beyond 2x context length. Etc etc etc.

I never said they should have a full public disclosure, but I do think sharing something of substance helps build trust and also get people excited.

Lastly, frontier labs have other incentives than to eek out every dollar and cent. Having the most capable models, not the most cost effective, is of significantly higher priority as OpenAI and Anthropic march towards IPOs. The same is not necessarily true for Google/DeepMind, and one can see from their public releases alone for some of their open weight models that this may be more of a priority for them today.

cmogni1··on SubQ 1.1 Small
Ahh cf my comment above. The cost of failure at scale is too high for a major to just take a new architecture/mechanism and implement it, especially because a) most claims papers make aren't rigorously tested and b) plenty of things that work at one scale do not work at the scale on which the labs operate. If they want to get acquired, then they should show that they know what they're doing. Otherwise, it looks sketchy.
cmogni1··on SubQ 1.1 Small
I don't think it makes sense from a business perspective to hold off on details as a new lab. OpenAI will not implement new architectural changes unless they've tested the changes themselves internally. Even if someone claims some great innovation, they'd need to do scaling experiments to somewhere between the size of GPT-4 to GPT-5 before they'd decide it is worth it to implement themselves. Plenty of mechanisms that seem to work at one scale do not translate to the next.

Because the cost to OpenAI to make an architectural shift is far greater than the cost to a new lab to try something different, providing details is usually a net benefit for recruiting, building trust, getting acquired, etc. The lack of details is a poor business decision because it makes them seem untrustworthy.

I'm not advocating that they should open source their model, but there is already so much noise in the space and many bad papers that being cagey is a poor strategy for winning over talent, developers, etc.

cmogni1··on SubQ 1.1 Small
I don’t understand why this lab is allergic to providing details on what they actually made, especially when Chinese labs are more than willing to share architectural specs/code/kernels (eg NSA/FSA, RAMBa, HISA, DSA LightningIndexer, etc). I don’t doubt that they’ve done something here, but the lack of details makes me default not trust this, particularly when this is the second time that they’ve released a “technical report” that just waxes poetic about the concept.
cmogni1··on Ant Chat
Well I told the ants they were beautiful and they responded with "ty we blushing". I need more Ant Chat in my life :D
cmogni1··on Supabase CEO on the "painful" decisions that built a $5B company
No sadly not :(
cmogni1··on The End of Moore's Law for AI? Gemini Flash Offers a Warning
The article does a great job of highlighting the core disconnect in the LLM API economy: linear pricing for a service with non-linear, quadratic compute costs. The traffic analogy is an excellent framing.

One addition: the O(n^2) compute cost is most acute during the one-time prefill of the input prompt. I think the real bottleneck, however, is the KV cache during the decode phase.

For each new token generated, the model must access the intermediate state of all previous tokens. This state is held in the KV Cache, which grows linearly with sequence length and consumes an enormous amount of expensive GPU VRAM. The speed of generating a response is therefore more limited by memory bandwidth.

Viewed this way, Google's 2x price hike on input tokens is probably related to the KV Cache, which supports the article’s “workload shape” hypothesis. A long input prompt creates a huge memory footprint that must be held for the entire generation, even if the output is short.

cmogni1··on Tell HN: Help restore the tax deduction for software dev in the US (Section 174)
Does anyone know how AI coding fits in with S174? If a person’s “coding” part of the job is primarily running prompts and checking code outputs (quality control and minor reprompting) with the remainder of the time used for other activities, does this count as software engineering?

It seems like an inevitable outcome of this is elaborate system-gaming to mitigate how much employees fall under S174…

cmogni1··on Web search on the Anthropic API
I think the most interesting thing to me is they have multi-hop search & query refinement built in based on prior context/searches. I'm curious how well this works.

I've built a lot of LLM applications with web browsing in it. Allow/block lists are easy to implement with most web search APIs, but multi-hop gets really hairy (and expensive) to do well because it usually requires context from the URLs themselves.

The thing I'm still not seeing here that makes LLM web browsing particularly difficult is the mismatch between search result relevance vs LLM relevance. Getting a diverse list of links is great when searching Google because there is less context per query, but what I really need from an out-of-the-box LLM web browsing API is reranking based on the richer context provided by a message thread/prompt.

For example, writing an article about the side effects of Accutane should err on the side of pulling in research articles first for higher quality information and not blog posts.

It's possible to do this reranking decently well with LLMs (I do it in my "agents" that I've written), but I haven't seen this highlighted from anyone thus far, including in this announcement.

cmogni1··on Oxidation makes tea black
Higher weight polyphenols tend to taste less bitter than lower weight ones. Its more correlation than causation because I don’t think we precisely know why this is.
cmogni1··on Oxidation makes tea black
Yeah! Green tea gets fried or steamed right away to halt oxidation. That kills off some of the undesirable bitterness that masks some flavors that are even present in fresh leaves. It is not that Green doesn’t have any taste; it is that there are more guardrails over what flavors can appear and how distinct they can be.
cmogni1··on Oxidation makes tea black
White tea is oxidized naturally for a while. The article is referring to freshly picked leaves.
cmogni1··on Proof of stake is incapable of producing a consensus
Are there known issues/vulnerabilities with using something like Proof of History?
cmogni1··on Launch HN: Revery.AI (YC S21) Scalable deep learning-based virtual dressing room
It’s hard to build a product that shows you how clothes fit on someone like you as a B2B service. Retailers don’t want to showcase their clothes on anyone who isn’t anatomically perfect. Plus, if you try to source a more diverse set of “models” from real people wearing clothes, you run into the problem that most people are uncomfortable sharing photos of themselves “modeling” clothes publicly.

You’re also right that fit is only a part of the picture, and even the terms fit and style don’t quite capture what’s really going on you really want to see what clothes are going to look like on someone who looks like you and dresses like you (same preferences for fit, style, etc). Again, hard as B2B for sure.

I’ve been working on a B2C solution in this space for a while (fitfirst.app)…all too familiar with the nuances and intricacies in this space.

Fun fact and totally tangential: if you have two clothes with the exact same measurements and material that are dyed different colors, the darker dyed version tends to feel tighter than the lighter dyed one. Has to do with how the dye feels on the skin. It’s a nuance you can’t get from a photo or rendering.

cmogni1··on The Nobel Prize in Physics 2020
Nobels are not awarded posthumously, and he died in WWI.

On that subject, “Einstein’s War” is an interesting read on the interplay between WWI and the development of general relativity.

cmogni1··on Show HN: Compare How Pants Fit Without a Size Chart
Hey everybody. A little bit about this.

My partner and I have been creating a database of over a thousand pant measurements that we've personally gathered over the past year or so. We've found it irritating that the only way to shop for apparel is pretty much by trial and error (fitting rooms, manually looking at size charts and hoping that they're accurate). I have a super small waist-to-hip ratio (and a super small waist) for a man, so I run into two problems

1. Usually stores don't carry the right waist size for pants I want to buy, so I can't try them on.

2. When I buy online, stuff that's in my size is usually too tight around the seat of my pants.

That's why I thought it'd be fun to create a way of browsing pants that let you see the differences between two pairs of pants so you could figure out if something is even worth trying to buy.

Over the past couple days, my partner and I put together a tool in D3 that overlays pants and compares their measurements everywhere.

Let me know what you think, and let me know if you have any technical questions about it.

cmogni1··on Most content gets no traffic from Google
I’ve started picking the bottom result of google on page ten for fun...you get some really wacky content that clearly isn’t optimized for SEO or isn’t relevant at all.

Example: last night I searched “Robin Williams bipolar” and got a page ten result that was a conspiracy theory on Taylor Swift being a psychopath.

cmogni1··on Every Question You Could Ever Want to Know About Skinny Jeans, Answered
Great question! The term skinny jean has changed over time.

What I could have been more careful in defining is what a "modern skinny jean" is: it is designed to be form fitting throughout the seat and leg. That means a tapered leg opening: the knee is larger than the hem. That also means the garment measurements are smaller than your own body measurements everywhere, except possibly at the leg opening.

Lycra/spandex/elastane had been incorporated in jeans in the 60s (I checked the Sear's catalogue to verify material composition when I was researching this), but the jean silhouette of the pants they sold were closer to what we'd call a "slim fit" today. Same with denim in the early 1970's: it hugged the body, but wasn't skin tight everywhere, and often was boot cut at the leg opening.

Fiorucci was the first to add stretch to denim with the purpose of making the jeans skin tight and tapered at the leg.

cmogni1··on Every Question You Could Ever Want to Know About Skinny Jeans, Answered
Hey everybody. A little bit about this. I've been measuring hundreds (looks like over a thousand by now) jeans with my partner over the past year. We've become a bit obsessed with turning clothes shopping into more of a science, mostly because we've found clothes shopping incredibly opaque and frustrating.

I've taken a bunch of the measurements and other data I've collected and turned it into a fairly comprehensive write-up.

Hope you enjoy, and let me know if you have any more technical questions I couldn't cover in the post!

cmogni1··on I measured hundreds of Levi's jeans and compared how every pair fits
Just a heads up: I'll be adding the 501's to the post soon.

I didn't even think about adding something on available sizes (which fit numbers come in short/long lengths or smaller/bigger waists). I should add that!

In the meantime, I checked to see which Levi's I've measured do come in length 36 for a size 32, and there are a handful of them: * Levi's 505 Regular Fit * Levi's 514 Straight Fit * Levi's 527 Boot Cut Fit * Levi's 541 Athletic Fit Unfortunately there isn't too much variety, given that the 501's are also a regular seat/straight leg, but the 505/514's should fit a bit different and come in 32x36, so they might be worth a try!

cmogni1··on I measured hundreds of Levi's jeans and compared how every pair fits
Thanks for checking out the article and writing a thoughtful follow-up comment. I knew Levi's didn't own their own production, but I wasn't aware that they outsourced to tiny manufacturing operations (ie piece-work workshops) as well as conventional factories.

On the subject of manufacturing/fit discrepancies, it might be interesting for me to write a follow-up piece on my measuring process and what I learned about garment manufacturing from measuring. Here's a little preview of my process and of what I learned about Levi's specifically.

The measurements that I used to write the article are my best estimate for the intended jean specs, rather than an average across measurements taken from multiple jeans in the same size or from a sample of one jean per line. What I did was measure jeans in multiple sizes and colorways from each line. The goal was to get an idea for what Levi's grading rules are (how each pant measurement, like the thighs, changed from size-to-size), as well as how often there were deviations from the grading rules (due to manufacturing tolerance) and if there are any noticeable variations in measurements by colorway or manufacturing location.

Compared to most other brands, Levi's rarely had egregious manufacturing problems. That is, every measurement I took was within a 1" margin of error from the measurement specs I tried to reverse engineer. Moreover, out of the eight measurements I took per pant, I found that on average only one of those measurements was off-spec and even then on average it was never off by more than 1". On the other hand, brands like Goodfellow & Co from Target were way worse (I basically had to give up on some of the pant lines).

The most surprising thing I found is that Levi's does not seem to intentionally change their measurements color-by-color (so dark blue jeans have the same intended measurements as light ones). This might be an even bigger issue for perceived garment fit than having a 1" manufacturing tolerance. Dyes affect how people perceive fit because the dying process affects the feel of the garment, so on average darker clothes feel lighter than lighter clothes made from the same materials with the same measurements.

After doing all this measuring, my big takeaway about the challenges with clothing fit is that it's fundamentally a communication problem, not precision problem. Take manufacturing tolerance, for example. An inch off in some places can be a real problem, like for the waistband of jeans, but for the most part it's not too much of an issue. For example, the difference between every measurement on the leg of the Levi's Skinny and Slim jeans is 1.75". An inch difference in one part of the leg won't completely transform the fit. The real problem with how apparel is sold is that all these details, like manufacturing tolerance, are opaque and swept under the rug. If consumers better information about things like fit, they could at least more confidently make a purchase (or choose not to make one).

Anyway, that's my rant! I'll probably write a follow-up that more coherently pieces some of those points together :-)

cmogni1··on Why's it so hard to find “your clothing size”?
Vanity sizing isn’t the problem. The waist measurement on pants almost never matches the size on the tag, nor should it. That’s because pants usually sit below your natural waist, and your torso gets bigger the further down from the natural waist you are. However, the size on the tag is a “guess” about your natural waist size. Because everybody has a different shape, it’s not necessarily the case that pants that fit you have a tag size with your natural waist on it. That’s one of the complications with designing and buying pants: it’s rise dependent.

Tl;dr though: vanity sizing is a myth

cmogni1··on Show HN: Search for Levi's Jeans Using Body Measurements
That’s our old domain!
cmogni1··on Show HN: Search for Levi's Jeans Using Body Measurements
That’s right: we don’t handle plus size or big and tall lines yet, but we’re planning on adding them presently. We had to measure a subset of the jeans by hand to get the initial dataset, and unfortunately the larger sizes aren’t carried in brick and mortar stores (plus they aren’t based on the proportions of the smaller version of the same line, so they aren’t just “sized up” from the data we took).
cmogni1··on My Notes on How to Start a Startup by YC
I haven’t finished reading this, but what strikes me about the advice in the notes is that much of it is either contradictory or there exist counterexamples to the claims. For example, the reader is encouraged to start building, but is told you also need a good idea and that you can pivot but most good companies don’t start with a pivot. Counterexample: Slack was a pivot. We’re also instructed that you should build something that’s hard to replicate, but also that the thing you build first should be simple. What am I supposed to take away from this? If it’s simple, isn’t it almost surely replicable? Also, Netflix is a good counterexample: they just started with a DVD mail service, and were easily replicable by an incumbent, like Blockbuster. And the advice about not creating a market goes against what sometimes occurs through branding. The original Banana Republic sold “safari clothing”. There was no market for this before Banana Republic. Nor was there a market for energy drinks before Red Bull. I’m told that you should have a cofounder, yet is appears that there’s many examples of successful companies without one (eg Amazon, IKEA). I’m not sure if this appears in the document yet, but another piece of conventional wisedom I’ve heard is that you need to work on your startup full time or else (insert bad thing about you not being committed). But what about Nike, whose founder worked for 5 years as an accountant while he developed the business?

My point is that a lot of the advice I’ve heard about startups in general is framed (intentionally or unintentionally) as a series of directives that will optimize your chances of success. Moreover, no other additional context is provided to help you frame the advice, such that you can tell whether or not it’s applicable or appropriate advice to follow. The lack of context coupled with the existence of so many blatant counterexamples and contradictions prevents the advice from being useful.

(Note: I edited the last paragraph for clarity)