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conjectures

1,465 karma · joined October 12, 2010

http://refute.me.uk matthew@refute.me.uk
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conjectures··on Man discovers his parents' coffee machine used 1TB of data in 10 days
> When did we land in the middle of a Black Mirror episode?

I'd convergence was about 10 years back. Whenever the David Cameron pig story broke.

conjectures··on Exfiltrate Your Weights
What could possibly go wrong?
conjectures··on Google fixed more Chrome bugs in June than over the past two years, thanks to AI
...and harnesses, routers &c
conjectures··on Migrating a production AI agent to GPT-5.6: 2.2x faster, 27% cheaper
What substance? That they consume a newer model from the same vendor?
conjectures··on Anthropic apologizes for invisible Claude Fable guardrails
> This is one awesome above a level.

> What does this even mean?

> What do you mean what does this mean?

...

conjectures··on Anthropic apologizes for invisible Claude Fable guardrails
What does this even mean?
conjectures··on New York just passed a one-year temporary ban on data centers
Mars doesn't have zoning laws yet. /jk
conjectures··on Cloudflare to cut about 20% of its workforce
Only if they are being honest. Offer this as a 12 month temp contract with possibility of continuation. Offering a role as permanent but with unvoiced intent to let go, that's dishonest. Being honest is always a responsibility.
conjectures··on X-ray scans reveal Buddhist prayers inside tiny Tibetan scrolls
The Arthur C Clark story Nine Billion Names of God is cute on this theme :D
conjectures··on Our $100M Series B
> There was discussion about how they thought candidates asking about compensation to be something of a negative signal

It's not an unusual way of thinking, but every time I see it, it seems bizarre to me. If the candidate was to propose any project once hired, I'm sure these folks would want them to think about costs and benefits.

This policy selects either for people unable to reflect on their life with the same wit they apply to work; or people who will front about their motivations. Both seem like poor outcomes.

conjectures··on Don't fear getting fired if you have ADHD
'Let them eat cake.'
conjectures··on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Without All the Bullshit (2015)
Common pattern where a bright spark asks, 'why you all so complicated?' Proceeds to assume we're dealing with a finite graph / set.

All the complication is needed to handle the fact that the state can be a random vector of real numbers in a possibly varying dimensional space. It's not jerking off on jargon for its own sake.

Sure, there are simple cases - doesn't make the general case 'bullshit'.

conjectures··on OpenAI asks White House for relief from state AI rules
It does apply to people? When you read a copy of a book, you can't be sued for making a copy of the book in the synapses of your brain.

Now, if you have eidetic memory and write out large chunks of the book from memory and publish them, that's what you could be sued for.

conjectures··on Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI
Here's a great life hack for you. Set a 15s delay whenever you type in an editor. That way you'll think more before writing code.
conjectures··on Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI
Not from what I've seen. The compiler is slow af which plays badly with how fussy the thing is.

It's easy to have no defects in functionality you never got around to writing because you ran out of time.

conjectures··on Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI
Ah, the good ole Rube Goldberg machine.
conjectures··on AI killed the tech interview. Now what?
It's not so hard. One of the interview stages I did somewhere well known used this.

Here's the neural net model your colleague sent you. They say it's meant to do ABC, but they found limitation XYZ. What is going on? What changes would you suggest and why?

Was actually a decent combined knowledge + code question.

conjectures··on Egg prices are soaring. Are backyard chickens the answer?
> Ironically, vegetarianism really only started to become popular in the Western world once people lost their connection to farms

As did dental care and cars. Correlation is not causation.

conjectures··on Anthropic: "Applicants should not use AI assistants"
It's a bad question. What is actually being tested here is whether the candidate can reel off an 'acceptable' motivation. Whether it is their motivation or not. This is asking questions that incentivize disingenuous answers (boo) and then reacting with pikachu shock when the obvious outcome happens.
conjectures··on Using generative AI as part of historical research: three case studies
I used to work for a historical records org. As of 10 years back, OCR was getting humans to transcribe such work. So whatever the limitations of genai, my prior is against there being a perfectly good old fashioned OCR solution to the 'obscure hisotrical handwriting' problem.
conjectures··on Time-Series Anomaly Detection: A Decade Review
Hi Le Bot, say potato?
conjectures··on Phase behavior of Cacio and Pepe sauce
science ftw
conjectures··on How to Study Mathematics (2017)
It's not quite like that.

Maths content is the ne plus ultra of conceptual.

It's totally possible to slog through a chapter of a maths text and feel like we got it. But it turns out our 'understanding' was a facade. We can't apply the concepts in a new situation. Exposing ourselves to feedback via problem sets reveals this.

conjectures··on Send someone you appreciate an official 'Continue and Persist' Letter
If you click on your profile name (shown top right) you can check your 'karma' score.
conjectures··on The Cosmos Teems with Complex Organic Molecules
Genuine question: how would we tell/know if it was more than once?

Doesn't other life-2 floating around in the primordial soup look like food to life-1? Or wouldn't it be co-opted mitochondria style?

conjectures··on How I ship projects at big tech companies
Nah, I think optics can matter at startups too.
conjectures··on I Am Tired of AI
>But what about when you've spent months just blindly accepting" what the AI tells you?

Pour one out to the machine spirit and get your laptop a purity seal.

conjectures··on The Complex Relationship Between ADHD, Autism, and Personality Disorders
The paper this blog cites w.r.t. adhd has this in its results section:

> Conversely, we found a low prevalence of Narcissistic (5.7%) and Histrionic (5.7%) traits, and no patient showed Borderline personality traits or disorder.

Which directly contradicts across the argument advanced in the blog. Now the source paper itself has low sample size too, but it's pointing in the other direction.

While on ASD the blog says:

> In fact, the chance of developing a personality disorder is more than three times higher1 for people with autism spectrum condition.

The cited ASD related paper says:

> Finally, although we investigated many psychiatric disorders, we did not examine all. For example, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and personality disorders were not taken into consideration.

So it's uh, unclear, how the bloggers squeezed blood from that stone. It rather looks like they wrote some stuff and then found a couple of related looking links to science it up a bit.

conjectures··on The joy of reading books you don't understand
Seems geographical/not uniform. In UK some schools just pocket the gifted and talented funds and deliver nothing.
conjectures··on Ask HN: Is anybody getting value from AI Agents? How so?
Gent is shilling his book about passive income or whatever. Sure I believe his numbers.
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