53 karma · joined May 29, 2021
There is no credible threat of a NATO invasion but there is the First-Strike issue now that hypersonic missiles are being developed. Putin has been moaning about this for a while now. A security-conscious/pragmatic state models "what is possible" vs "what is probable". If it seems likely that future Finland could host hypersonic missiles pointed at St.Petersburg, well it becomes incumbent on Moscow to attempt to prevent that. It seems unwise to dismiss their concerns if said dismissal would lead to Ukraine 2.0.
Lots of people seem to think that the Russian unwillingness to flatten Kiev means they could not do it.
How many people have to die for Finns to feel like they stood up to a bully?
Russia has not engaged in conflict with a NATO country, so far. If the stakes are raised high enough, I don't think this will continue to hold.
> Russia has very little reason to invade Finland now, and if Finland joins NATO, it cannot.
I would go so far as to say that if Finland applies to join NATO, they'd have to. That is, if it is truly part of their doctrine that NATO/US is an existential threat to the Russian state.
For Russia, the choice is: war now or war later?
Cry “Havoc!” and let slip the dogs of war.
It's not too late to put up a no-fly zone. If it was ok then, why is it not ok now?
Mearsheimer argues that when the path that a country chooses comes into conflict with a great power's security interests, those interests become the overriding concern of both parties. He points out that Cuba was not allowed to ally itself with USSR with nuclear war being put on the table.
I can't help but wonder what the US would do if Mexico signed a security pact with China to put a military base on its soil.
As a minor example consider the Solomon islands brouhaha[1].
Edit: Nyet means Nyet: Russia's NATO Enlargement Redlines : https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html
The NATO-US acting from Ukraine possibly attempting to foment "color" revolutions in Russia, NATO missiles on Ukraine soil, an increasingly belligerent leader in Ukraine renewing the push to join NATO and NATO-US arming and training Ukraine troops. These seem to be more likely factors in the invasion.
Given that the "West" has been frothing around the mouth for his ouster (he did once ask to join NATO btw), one could conclude that "He who goes first wins" was a viable strategy for him.
I have examined my bias against mainstream media and still find them completely warranted, thank you.
I have the same issue. Different Dell laptop though. It's been an issue for a looong time. Scrolling reliably fails at least once a week forcing a reboot.
Anyway my point is that the initial clamour of "imminent invasion" was unwarranted based on the evidence at the time based on historical troop movement at the border. Therefore there must be another reason underlying the media's outcry which is beyond my ken.
It is just convenient (Biden's domestic issues/Nordstream 2/other unknown reasons) to claim imminent invasion and the media is incentivised to fuel that narrative since it seems to have captured the attention of the populace at large (perhaps based on the Russophobia that is prevalent in mainstream media).
I think you should qualify that as "most people - in the western hemisphere/democracies - will never be under threat of a state actor that necessitates getting their friends and family "the hell out of Telegram as soon as possible"
I think, though it is a leap, that the current <insert-dogma-of-the-day> will extend downstream but who knows...
This is a disingenuous attempt to dismiss a valid criticism by categorising it as a flame-war topic.
The humanities today, in general, are by no means either tolerant or open (at least in the English speaking portion of the globe).
These babies are then raised in child group homes by state employees all the way from infancy. Meanwhile the state pays for their education until they either graduate or until some kind of arbitrary deadline.
Thus the problem could become cost effective due to economies of scale thereby partially mitigating the cost problem.
However, it is still unclear whether to then make childbirth opt-in or something along those lines.
If we are going to farm kids, then why not do it properly?
/s
This would be the more interesting question to study as I frequently find that social justice (as projected in the popular culture) is perceived somewhat differently, especially around situations where a victim acted in a manner that was more likely to lead to the bad outcome i.e. "victim-blaming"