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ctlby

250 karma · joined September 21, 2015

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ctlby··on Google Fires Employee Behind Controversial Diversity Memo
Please stop peddling this science denialism. There is great consensus outside the intellectually-bankrupt fields of sociology and gender studies.
ctlby··on Google Fires Employee Behind Controversial Diversity Memo
But they are well-accepted, and they have been for decades. If scientific consensus is any measure of truth, you should be defending his propositions with the same fervor you would global warming. Anything else is just science denialism.
ctlby··on Google Fires Employee Behind Controversial Diversity Memo
The most direct reading of his claim is that they're hiring unqualified women. He would presumably be happy with a larger mix of female colleagues if he felt standards weren't being lowered.
ctlby··on Why it may be illegal for Google to punish that engineer over his now viral memo
They've only been "debunked" in the lazy, anti-intellectual corners of academia; that is, gender studies, cultural/social anthropology, critical race theory, etc. The factual points made by the author (re: gender differences only, no opinion on his recommendations for Google) square very nicely with scientific consensus [1]. The evidence has only piled on since the famous Pinker-Spelke debate.

[1] https://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/debate05/debate05_index.htm...

ctlby··on Why it may be illegal for Google to punish that engineer over his now viral memo
This guy takes a crack at exactly what you propose. The factors you mention do not undermine the manifesto's thesis. https://nintil.com/2017/08/07/why-so-few-women-in-cs-the-goo...
ctlby··on Ask HN: Why has discussion of the Google Manifesto been censored?
Nearly all of the document's factual claims are squarely in the middle of academic consensus. If you find the arguments morally troubling, just say so, but don't contribute to the raving anti-scientific delusions of the blank-slate crowd.
ctlby··on Housing Plans in California & New York face resistance from construction unions
If they're willing to labor for those rates, they are "market" by definition.
ctlby··on University of Chicago: ‘We Do Not Support So-Called Trigger Warnings’
Good point, my statement is specific to the US.
ctlby··on University of Chicago: ‘We Do Not Support So-Called Trigger Warnings’
> I think theres a big difference between speakers you disagree with and the former.

There is zero difference. "Hate speech" is a phrase invented by modern progressives to describe disagreeable views. It has zero meaning outside of pop liberal circles.

ctlby··on A Plan for a Long-Term Stock Exchange
Nailed it. The problems they're trying to address are entirely in the realm of corporate governance. None of their stated aims require a new exchange.
ctlby··on Obama Forgives Student Debt Of 400,000 Americans
> This doesn't apply only to expensive universities.

In order for a university to saddle students with crushing debt, it must almost certainly be both a.) expensive b.) unhelpful for career prospects. This points to private liberal-arts colleges and for-profit diploma mills (though the latter are a lesser part of the problem; they are cheaper and enroll nearly 40% fewer students [1]).

> More to the point: "the law" clearly says that you don't have to pay your loans if you're disabled.

I'm not suggesting the law is being violated. What's offensive is that borrowers are being encouraged to default, _regardless of delinquency status_; the majority are current on their loans! The administration is actively seeking to maximize loss to the taxpayer.

[1] http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_cha.asp

ctlby··on Obama Forgives Student Debt Of 400,000 Americans
Of course. But in this case, this debt is non-dischargeable, so the lender (the government!) is asserting its right under the law--a law that the student should have been aware of before rushing off to expensive, no-name liberal arts university.
ctlby··on Obama Forgives Student Debt Of 400,000 Americans
> I am glad this measure exists for the disabled Americans being shaken down

Silly hyperbole. They're simply being asked to pay for a product they consumed.

> the use of private companies charging usurious rates is simply wrong.

Sounds like your complaint is less with "usury" than with private enterprise.

ctlby··on The Obama Administration Has Embraced Legal Theories Broader Than John Yoo's
They're on point about his general lawlessness. It started with the Chrysler bailout (almost as soon as he walked into office!), and it continues to this day with e.g. the retroactive provisions in his latest anti-inversion proposal.

> Trump is the inevitable outcome of 50 years of racist, belligerent fear mongering

Trump is the inevitable outcome of eight years of liberal grievance peddling. His supporters are just trying to claim their share of the spoils of victimhood.

ctlby··on Giving up on test-first development
I deeply agree when it comes to programming, but there's plenty of room for absolutism in other areas of life. Why subordinate strong moral preferences to hazy cost-benefit analysis?
ctlby··on Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots
> It took almost hundred years from the start of the industrial revolution before real wages started to grow.

Even the most pessimistic view suggests that real wages grew, especially after the conclusion of the Napoleanic Wars. [1]

> The real benefits from industrialization were realized after hard political changes.

The real benefits of industrialization were immediately realized via mass production of widely desired and previously unobtainable goods. This should be clear from migratory patterns: workers abandoned the countryside en masse (in spite of city living/working conditions) for a reason. Enclosure laws were not a major factor until 1845.

> You don't create middle class from mid 18th century society.

Of course you do. The rise of the managerial and professional classes is a direct consequence of the Industrial Revolution.

[1] http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/users/Allen/unpublished/pessimi...

ctlby··on SF tech bro: ‘I shouldn’t have to see the pain, struggle, despair of homeless’
Check out the chart on page 18. $1.5 billion spent over 10 years, and the homeless population... increased! What a humiliating statistic for anyone who thinks this can be solved with mental-health treatment, rehab, empathy, or [homily of choice].
ctlby··on SF tech bro: ‘I shouldn’t have to see the pain, struggle, despair of homeless’
The point is that no amount of money will solve the problem with San Francisco's current approach (whatever that is). If they spend $50 million with zero effect, and they spend $100 million with zero effect, and they spend $150 million with zero effect, where do you guess the problem stands at the $200, $250, $500 marks?
ctlby··on SF tech bro: ‘I shouldn’t have to see the pain, struggle, despair of homeless’
The city spends $167 million [1] for a homeless population no larger than 15,000 (and probably closer to 7,000) [2]. The wealthy city isn't leaving anyone to his or her fate. To the contrary, it's expending vast amounts of wealth with precious little to show for it.

[1] http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/matier-ross/article/S-F-spendi...

[2] https://sfgov.org/lhcb/sites/sfgov.org.lhcb/files/2015%20San...

ctlby··on The NSA’s machine learning algorithm may be killing thousands of innocent people
> But you are going to get an error rate, and probably a high one in the noisy real world.

They're clearly not implementing a minimum-error rate classifier. Which isn't to defend their choice of loss function (it's not 0-1, but beyond that I have no idea); just to point out the inanity of some of the comments claiming the NSA isn't aware of base rates.

ctlby··on Why expat Americans are giving up their passports
Bureaucracy does tend towards bloat and failure, both in the private or public sectors. I can quibble with your examples (I don't think they're appropriate), but even if we allow that they are indeed successes, for each one I can find a handful of very consequential failures (DoD, VHA, HUD, etc). Consider especially where government is tasked with providing a service, instead of shuffling money around to pay for it. This is admittedly a US-centric perspective, but why should I want to trade our poor governance for, say, European institutions with their attendant sclerosis?
ctlby··on High-Speed Firms Now Oversee Almost All Stocks at NYSE Floor
> I still fail to understand what does being one millionth of a second faster accomplish.

A simple example: suppose AAPL is currently quoted $95.00 x $96.00. A reasonable estimate for the "fair value" is the midpoint, $95.50. Now, a new sell order for $95.01 arrives at the market. AAPL is now quoted at $95.00 x $95.01. In the absence of other signals, a trader might reason that there's something wrong with the guy selling at $95.01 when everyone else thinks fair value is ~$95.50. If so, he'll rush to trade against the new order. First one to get there gets shares cheap; everyone else gets nothing. Hold the position for as long as you like.

There are a lot of details to get right, but this is an actual HFT strategy, not a toy example. Note that your speed matters only insofar as it lets you trade ahead of everyone else. All the infrastructure investment is required to stay ahead of other participants, but it does not confer a durable advantage: the arms race will quickly erode the edge. The investment is best-viewed as a tax imposed by other HFT firms, paid to technology vendors and exchanges. The big winners are those who sell the equipment and fast lines that certain HFTs desperately need.

> What if the regulators decided to ban all HFTs. The market would look pretty similar to how it does today. The big change would be somewhat wider spreads: market makers need to compensate for the additional risk they take on by leaving their orders out. Any other traders here have an opinion?

ctlby··on High-Speed Firms Now Oversee Almost All Stocks at NYSE Floor
There you go again with "insertion." HFT market-makers don't thrust themselves between two people who are about to transact. Their orders were already in the market, and you came to them.

The "Flash Boys" case is a funny one. The HFTs did see the orders--but so did EVERYONE else, and in basically the same instant, because all transactions are publicly disseminated. Your point is right in a very narrow sense and very wrong on every axis that actually matters.

I'm mystified as to why Flash Boys didn't valorize high-frequency trading. It's a Moneyball story where the scrappy nerds use computers and math to out-compete the dinosaurs. Oh well.

ctlby··on High-Speed Firms Now Oversee Almost All Stocks at NYSE Floor
Obviously not. Humans just want something that feels like "now." That this has changed from seconds to milliseconds to microseconds is an inevitable consequence of the rules of the game--and is completely irrelevant to you. Your horizon is much, much longer than that of the professional trader to whom these details matter.
ctlby··on High-Speed Firms Now Oversee Almost All Stocks at NYSE Floor
They don't "insert" themselves, they were there before you came along. Your market order trades with them because their price is the best one currently displayed. As for an HFT firm "seeing" your order and front-running--you're just making stuff up.
ctlby··on High-Speed Firms Now Oversee Almost All Stocks at NYSE Floor
Makers collect the spread from participants who want to transact right now (the price of immediacy). "Real" investors are better off because they paid someone to take a position of their hands that they didn't want. They made their trading problem someone else's.

Takers exploit the option value of resting orders by trading when "fair value" moves but those orders don't. "Real" investors are better off because they cheaply acquired a security they may hold for years (the fact that the price will shortly move against them by a penny or two is irrelevant). Market makers are worse off--but they're HFT guys, and it's not really your problem.

ctlby··on High-Speed Firms Now Oversee Almost All Stocks at NYSE Floor
Let me clarify: my random delay shuffles incoming orders, while random exchange delays (outside of CME iLink games) do not. Removing determinism hugely hurts speed.

The value of further decimalization seems questionable. It would in all cases reduce displayed size. Would transaction costs still decline due to tighter spreads? For the liquid lower-priced stocks, probably. For stocks whose natural spread is > 1 cent (most of the expensive stuff), certainly not. For everything else, hard to say.

Maybe a Japan/Europe-style tick increment schedule is a good compromise.

ctlby··on High-Speed Firms Now Oversee Almost All Stocks at NYSE Floor
> they never seem to answer the question of why someone who is not an HFT firm would want to trade on an exchange that caters to high frequency traders.

There are network effects in trading: people go to transact where everyone else is transacting. Because HFT is allowed on the most popular venues, the economic thing to do is hold your nose and trade there too. This is true even if HFT somehow makes the venues "worse" (which it doesn't).

ctlby··on High-Speed Firms Now Oversee Almost All Stocks at NYSE Floor
CyberDildonics is basically proposing frequent batch auctions as described in the Budish paper. It won't work, largely for reason you state. The appropriate solution is for exchanges to add a _random_ delay to each order (emphasis on _random_, a fixed delay a la IEX does nothing). ParFX is doing just this.
ctlby··on High-Speed Firms Now Oversee Almost All Stocks at NYSE Floor
It turns out that the only way to be profitable in trading is to buy low and sell high.
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