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dackle

87 karma · joined January 14, 2024

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dackle··on Anthropic S-1
Thank you for this. I just tried it out and it worked perfectly with no problems. Previously I was planning to go into Chrome's developer tools and entering "window.scrollY" in the console to get the scroll position of the .htm page, taking a screenshot of where I stopped reading, then the next day going back into developer tools and entering window.scrollTo(0, 175000), with "175000" replaced by yesterday's scroll position.

A bit surprised that Anthropic doesn't have an investor relations section with user-friendly links to their filings.

dackle··on Show HN: Analyst Index – analysts who make money telling you good stock calls
I'm not sure if any sell-side analysts would join this service. The sell side and the buy side have their own ecosystem, and they are highly unlikely to share information such as target prices with third parties. The sell-side analyst writes a research report, the firm he/she works for spams it out to buy-side clients and then the analyst gets on the phone and starts calling those clients to talk about the report. If the sell-side analyst is lucky, the buy-side client will then put a large trade through with the trading desk at the sell-side analyst's firm. If this happens frequently, the analyst is handsomely rewarded at bonus time.

Echoing phyalow's comments, most sell-side research is indeed garbage. Target prices are often today's price plus 15-25%. Then the analyst massages his/her EPS or EBITDA estimate and P/E or EV/EBITDA multiple so that the target price is plausible. Most larger companies provide earnings guidance, so the analyst will stay within the guidance range and apply a plausible multiple to arrive at the pre-determined target price. The analysts are all afraid of going out on a limb and making a bold call, so before publishing research they run over to the Bloomberg terminal to check the target prices and estimates of other analysts covering the stock, and then adjust their targets/estimates accordingly.

The real value of sell-side research to a buy-side client is being able to get on the phone and talk to someone who is very knowledgeable about a stock. If a buy-side client is getting up to speed on a company, it is very valuable to call up a sell-side analyst and get a full rundown of all the issues about a stock.

Also, although almost all sell-side analysts are bulls, some are more bullish than others. So one of the keys to getting value out of sell-side research is reading at least five years of an analyst's coverage of a company and learning to read between the lines. You may realize that Brooke the Bull is always optimistic and promotional, but after this most recent earnings report, you may sense that she is slightly less bullish than usual, even if her target price is still double the latest closing price. This would be your intel that it wasn't a great quarter.

dackle··on I program on the subway
Here is a description of the daily commute by Michael Milken, 1980s junk bond king, as told in "Predator's Ball" by Connie Bruck:

At 5:30am each weekday in the early 1970s, a bus pulled up to a stop in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, and a young man lugging a bag that bulged with papers mounted its steps. He was making the two-hour commute to New York City, where he worked at the investment­ banking firm of Drexel Firestone. The train would have provided a more comfortable and faster ride; but, for those very reasons, it also offered more opportunity to meet other Wall Street acquaintances. They would want to engage in the kind of idle small talk that commuters share to pass the time. The thought must have been intolerable. He did not wish to be rude, but he wanted no interrup­tion.

As soon as he had settled into his seat, being sure to take one with an empty one adjacent, he unloaded a mountain of prospectuses and 10ks (annual Securities and Exchange Commission filings) onto the seat next to him. On winter mornings the sky was still pitch black and the light on the bus was too dim for him to be able to read. He wore a leather aviation cap with the earflaps down; he had been bald for years, and although he wore a toupee his head always felt cold on these frosty mornings. Now over his aviation cap he fitted a miner's headlamp -- strapped around the back of his head, with a huge light projecting from his forehead.

dackle··on How Brian Eno Created Ambient 1: Music for Airports (2019)
"Deep Listening" by Pauline Oliveros, Stuart Dempster and Panaiotis is also excellent:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U__lpPDTUS4

dackle··on A Typology of Canadianisms
In Vancouver in the 1990s, if you wanted to buy a six-pack of beer at 10pm after the government-run liquor store closed, you would walk into a local pub and ask the bartender if they did "off-sales". If yes, they would sell you a cold six-pack for a very small markup.

Also, in Ontario in the 1990s, one-eighth of an ounce of weed was called a "half-quarter", ha ha.

dackle··on The Effect of Noise on Sleep
Check out the location of these condos in downtown Toronto built alongside the Gardiner Expressway, a very busy 90km/h (~55mph) highway: https://maps.app.goo.gl/TGLCBJGbrSEkAm7W6

The satellite view shows many units in multiple buildings directly next to this highway with no noise protection: https://maps.app.goo.gl/JA4jMPSSYsDBq5my5

Years ago I lived near a busy four-lane road with what seemed like a reasonable 60km/h speed limit. However, when it rained, the noise from the car tires on the wet road made it difficult to hear music from my radio. It was very unpleasant to leave the balcony doors open, as the constant din starts to work its way into your brain and make it very difficult to focus.

dackle··on A receipt printer cured my procrastination
This reminds me somewhat of a system by David MacIver: https://drmaciver.substack.com/p/using-a-list-to-manage-exec...

He builds his list from scratch every morning. The list is flat, so as you go about your day and subtasks occur to you, they are added to the list without explicit links to the main task.

I thought it might be risky to start with a blank list, because something important might be forgotten. But it turns out that a blank list is a great filter for what is truly important and motivating. If it is important, you will remember it at some point during the day.

This system is also excellent for shorter periods of time. If I come home and want to get started on dinner, want to tidy up a bit and have a few other demands on my attention, I put my laptop in a central location, open up Notepad, and just start typing in everything I see around me that I need to do. Usually I start with maybe 5 items, but as I start doing things I quickly add tasks to the list, and it might grow to 15 or 20 items. But then at some point the list starts to shrink again as these small, granular tasks are completed. It is strangely satisfying to see the list initially grow and then shrink to nothing. It also leaves me with a feeling of having thoroughly attended to everything that was bothering me when I first walked in the door.

dackle··on 45-year mystery behind eerie photo from The Shining is believed to be solved
I'm sorry to differ with you, sir, but I quite liked the ending.

If I may be so bold, sir.

If you don't mind my saying so, sir.

dackle··on How I Ace Midterms at a Top CS School by Studying 1-3 Hours (and Skipping Class)
You might find this article by Michael Nielsen interesting: https://augmentingcognition.com/ltm.html

In particular I liked the section partway* through the article where he talks about using Anki to get up to speed on the AlphaGo paper for an article he was writing for Quanta.

* Do a Ctrl-F for "AlphaGo"

He also writes here about how to use spaced repetition to see through a piece of mathematics: https://cognitivemedium.com/srs-mathematics

dackle··on Ask HN: Why are banks charging so many fees for accounts and cards?
Yes, and while TD is paying you 0.050%, they are loaning out your $4,000 in the form of a mortgage on which they earn 6.79%!
dackle··on Ask HN: Why are banks charging so many fees for accounts and cards?
Also, $16.95/month is $203.40/year, which divided by $4,000 is 5.09%. If you can earn more than 5.09% then you are better off paying the fee and investing your $4,000 elsewhere.

It is also pretty much impossible to keep precisely $4,000 in your account because of the lumpiness of day-to-day inflows (paycheques) and outflows (bills). If you keep say $10,000 in your chequing account to (a) avoid the $16.95/fee, and (b) provide a buffer against unexpected expenses, then the breakeven return on your money is $203.40 / $10,000 = a paltry 2.03%.

dackle··on DVD shop owner vows to be ‘last man standing’
Bay Street Video near Bay and Bloor in Toronto is still alive and well: https://www.baystreetvideo.com/ and has a very deep catalogue and active new release schedule: https://www.baystreetvideo.com/recentbydate.php?sortbytitle=...
dackle··on Ask HN: Recommend me some silent movies
You should check out Silent Sunday Nights on TCM, hosted by Jacqueline Stewart.

https://www.tcm.com/articles/Programming%20Article/020683/si...

Here are the featured films for November and December: 11/3 - The Prisoner of Zenda (1922) 11/10 - The Dragon Painter (1919) 11/10 - The Tong Man (1919) 11/17 - Three Women (1924) 11/17 - The Doll (1919) 11/24 - The Scarlet Letter (1927) 12/1 - Scar of Shame (1927) 12/8 - The Life of the Party (1920) 12/8 - Fatty's Tintype Tangle (1915) 12/15 - Little Old New York (1923) 12/29 - The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (1921)

dackle··on Germans decry influence of English as 'idiot's apostrophe' gets approval
The language police are mentioned on page 65 of "Solomon Gursky Was Here" by Mordecai Richler, published 1989:

The lot outside The Caboose, punctured with potholes, overlooked a lush meadow lined with cedars. There were picnic tables out there as well as an enormous barbecue, the engine a salvage job done on an abandoned four-stroke lawn mower. Sundays in summer the truculent and hungover Rabbit would turn up at seven A.M. to begin roasting a pig or a couple of shoulders of beef for the community dinner, all you could eat for five bucks, proceeds to The Old Folks Home in Rock Island. The Rabbit was once dismissed for pissing in the fire. "People was looking and it puts them off their feed." He was fired again for falling asleep in the grass after guzzling his umpteenth Molson and failing to notice that the spit hadn't been revolving properly for more than an hour. Then he beat up an inspector from the Commission de la Langue Francaise outside The Thirsty Boot on the 243. According to reports the inspector had ordered The Thirsty Boot to take down their sign and replace it with a French one. "Sure thing," the Rabbit had said, kneeing the inspector in the groin, just to cut him down to his own height before laying into him. "We're gonna put up a pepper sign all right. Only it's gonna read 'De Tirsty Boot'." After that he could do no wrong.

dackle··on Wreck of Shackleton's 'Endurance' discovered in Antarctic depths (2022)
Agreed. The audiobook version read by Simon Prebble is also excellent.