1,250 karma · joined September 19, 2013
AKA democracy ;-)
The prologue is great:
"Considering how many fools can calculate, it is surprising that it should be thought either a difficult or a tedious task for any other fool to learn how to master the same tricks.
Some calculus-tricks are quite easy. Some are enormously difficult. The fools who write the textbooks of advanced mathematics (and they are mostly clever fools) seldom take the trouble to show you how easy the easy calculations are. On the contrary, they seem to desire to impress you with their tremendous cleverness by going about it in the most difficult way.
Being myself a remarkably stupid fellow, I have had to unteach myself the difficulties, and now beg to present to my fellow fools the parts that are not hard. Master these thoroughly, and the rest will follow. What one fool can do, another can."
In my (limited) experience, when banks forecast prices (for stocks, indices, FX rates etc) they always quote a number within a reasonable-sounding percentage of the current price, because not to do so risks being wrong and looking stupid.
This means that most of the time they are not far out, and when it really matters (eg 2008) they are miles out (and so is everyone else).
So even if BofAML actually thought that the "maximum fair market value" was significantly higher than $1300, I doubt they'd have said so, simply to avoid the reputational risk.