devalgo

> but the question is, how and why will the bubble burst?

I'd take the Black Swan approach. There are probably a dozen each unlikely events that could cause the bubble to pop but you're unlikely to actually predict which one will do it and when it will happen. Your optimal move is to assume something is going to happen at some point and just hedge yourself against that rather than try to predict. Taleb gets called an oracle but his entire philosophy is not to predict rare events that destabilize a system but just accept they will eventually happen and prepare accordingly

In this case having some portion of your net worth in BTC/Crypto seems like an obvious hedge

Might be wishful thinking. The energy levels where a unifying theory might pop out seem to be out of reach right now. Doesn't seem that we're just missing something that's already in our data.

Land of the Free indeed.

Isn't GPT-3 exactly the kind of meta learner you're thinking of?

Couple of guys in Israel just got 6 months of probation for running the world's largest Botnet for Hire.

>This is a good article on the topic: https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.03477

Not to nitpick but that article is a year old and the field is moving at lightspeed

Is this how low we've gotten? The only thing you can say is that the US is at least better than the most oppressive and isolated Regime in the world? I don't know what that says about your world view or the US.

Not defending Singapore which has extremely problematic laws on the books and I can't really speak for Vietnam but the US has far higher incarceration rates than any of those countries. Like 3-4x higher. China's numbers are probably suspect but at least on paper the US is still worse.

Us has the highest verified incarceration per capita in the world and the largest number of total prisoners. So at least by verified numbers it's not really even close, the US is by far the worst. Are the numbers accurate for China or other oppressive regimes? Who knows and North Korea doesn't release numbers but they're thought to be close to or slightly higher than the US' per capita numbers.

https://www.prisonstudies.org/highest-to-lowest/prison-popul...

The burn it down and rebuild approach is terrifying. There's absolutely no reason to think there will be anything left to rebuild. Do you really think a Country like the US with thousands of nuclear weapons will allow itself to be torn down? You really think strongmen won't appear and enforce totalitarianism on any country sufficiently destabilized? There's a million ways for that sequence to go horribly wrong and like 5 where it works out. It's not a real solution.

>The whole banking system would collapse like in 2007-2008 because "everyone stops paying mortgages all at once" is basically what happened then.

This obviously ignores the issue with massively leveraged firms making poor bets on housing bonds. But lets be real, they'll get bailed out if there's any problem.

Mine as well. I do hope the reports saying outdoor spread is unlikely are correct becaust the protests seem to be ideal superspreader events. Hot sweaty people packed into enormous crowds coughing because of tear gas and smoke? Thankfully some people are wearing masks but it's almost a worst case scenario.

>So in the end, we will have experienced a lot of economic pain for not that much benefit.

This is very US-centric. Our lockdown was more or less completely useless, it wasn't enforced and case numbers continue to rise while in much of Europe they appear to have worked exactly as intended.

>It sort of feels like that now. Lots of normality still. There is definitely something not right about the stock market not feeling the impact of millions of unemployed and more than half of retail stores missing rent payments.

Not saying their right but Wall St. types will tell you the market has already priced the pandemic and current unemployment numbers in and is forward looking.

Doesn't this really only apply to variable rates that people thought they could consistently refinance as their homes value went up? If you have a set rate you'll just pay the same monthly payment for 30 years, I don't see how your homes value would really affect you unless you had to move and sell at a loss.

IF you're so confident then why don't you plug your life savings into shorting the market? You'll make millions.

There's been countless examples of projecting returns for an investor who tries to time the market and one who keeps buying and almost universally the timer loses.

Excuse me sir, those writing samples are irrelevant. Could easily be plagiarized. I prefer to test my writers on arcane grammar in the languages they supposedly speak in high pressure situations.

>If the majority of workers prefer workplaces like that then those places will thrive

The majority of workers have probably never even heard of worker coops and those that have probably imagine it to be related to socialism and therefore un-American.

>So fuller democracy equals government limiting choice, as long as it is your desired choice

So more democracy actually == more authoritarian. Astounding logic.

>Why cooperatives do poorly?

I don't think you have evidence to back this up. The reality is that cooperatives are very rare, so 99% of people don't even have to option to work for one. It's probably not even clear to the vast majority of workers that such a thing is even possible. This says nothing of the extreme aversion to anything even remotely resembling collectivism in the US.

>They respond saying it's too risky

Well it literally is. If they are talking about Wall St. bankers they have no way to replicate the results of those people. Wall Street can make poorly thought out multi-trillion dollar bets on housing bonds and when they go bust they get bailed out and still get their Christmas Bonuses. There is no similar mechanism to protect a non-institutional investor from similar levels of risk.

>Democracy is not an efficient way of running a business

Have any data to back that up? Comparing a democratically run corporation to the US government is a non sequitur. Outside VC there is no business model that will allow you to run at a loss for decades. So it's a scenario that's not even possible hypothetically.

Somewhat anecdotal but there is a Worker Co-op in Spain, Mondragon, that's been a very competitive corporation for over 50 years. It can clearly work long term and it leads to better outcomes for employees and the communities they work in.

> The US, along with every other developed economy, is significantly older today than it was 40 years ago.

Looking only at average age doesn't give a full picture, how does this square with the Millenials recently becoming the largest generational cohort? By your logic shouldn't there be a massive wave of young growing companies.

Have you used any of these apps? Delivery Fee + Servicing Fees + Driver Tip is usually minimum +20% on your order total. How is that cheaper? Restaurants have to pay a flat % to the Apps and this usually crushes their profit even with volume. Do we even need to argue that Uber drivers are getting a good deal? Car maintenance + lack of benefits usually leaves them making minimum wage or worse. It's A job but I don't think anyone is saying its a Good one.

Attorney General != District Attorney last time I checked.

I'm explicitly talking about the people who are using the MLK quote to DEFEND the riots not explain them. If they actually supported the thesis of what MLK was saying they would post the entire quote with the relevant condemnation of riots, some are doing that but many aren't.

Subsidized for who though? It's not clear that the consumers, the restaurants or the Drivers are actually getting a good deal here.

>The failure after the riots

It would appear that you in fact made my point for me.

>I see in another of your posts you said something to the effect of "If (protests) become violent, don't be surprised when (the police) respond with violence."

You must have me confused with someone else. I've never made a comment like that.

The officer in question has been charged with murder. The Minnesota Governor and AG were both advocating for charges basically since day 1 and well before the protests so it's not at all clear the turmoil influenced his arrest.

1992 LA Riots caused over a $Billion in damage and 63 people died. Given that the scale of those riots far surpassed anything we're seeing now and given that nearly 30 years later another instance of police brutality preceded the current turmoil isn't it clear that your approach has failed?