double0jimb0

Does it? https://krusekronicle.typepad.com/kruse_kronicle/2008/02/inf...

In this imaginary hunter gather scenario, you certainly must account for life expectancy being what, 40 years? Infant mortality rate 50%?

If given the choice, I think most beings would select into a stream optimizing for actual existence. Sounds strikingly close to evolution.

Not my experience observing others. Do you by chance live in a state where marijuana is not yet legalized?

Not sure exactly what series of aluminum car panels are made from, I highly doubt its 7000 series, probably a 2000 or 5000, maximum Yield strength for T6 temper is in 250-350MPa range. That’s still pretty soft.

Cold rolled full hard 301 stainless has yield strength of 1000 MPa. Tesla claims a 30x ultra hard, no one knows quite what that means yet, so maybe that’s 1500MPa yield strength. So call it 6-8x more dent resistant than aluminum at same thickness.

Tesla is using 3mm thick stainless. I can’t imagine standard car panels are more than 1.5mm thick.

Stiffness grows with square of cross sectional thickness.

So it is plausible Tesla’s panels are 20-30x stiffer than regular door panel.

Maybe that’s where they get their 30X from.

What’s your math say?

Elon is a lot of things, but a good actor he is not. Watch the livestream for a few mins before to a few minutes after the throw. He was noticeably thrown off and flustered. The audience knew he was uncomfortable and cheered him for support. The whole thing was cringe inducing.

> Expensive and remote repair, lots of gadgets to break, difficult to remotely fuel, very likely costly compared to the cheapest alternatives.

I really don't understand this argument. Ford/GM/FCA 1/2 ton trucks are in a gadget/gimmick arms race and pretty terrible at executing it. The new 2019 Dodge Ram has been a disaster for new owners. I won't provide references because it is a simple google search. (For bonus points research the ongoing 2020 Ford Explorer debacle). Objective observers give Ford the nod for reliability of the big 3, and that's why Ford can charge about a 10% premium.

And that Ford/GM/FCA builds gadget-full and reliable pickup trucks seems to be a collective delusion of the truck enthusiasts. Toyota Tundra hasn't been meaningfully updated in 10 years and still sells like crazy. Toyota hasn't had to update it with gadgets because it is reliable like all Toyotas. It correspondingly has significantly higher new price (for given features) and resale value than any of the other 3 brands.

Tesla's electric motor drivetrain formula is already proving to be lower total cost of ownership [1].

As for the Tesla truck, airbag suspension is a notorious reliability item from any mfg, they all source from similar Tier 1 suppliers. So maybe Tesla decides to insource this? And that retractable bedcover looks prone to breaking. But besides those, everything else are things Tesla has already proven to be more reliable than ICE alternatives.

As for difficulty to remotely fuel, are there more power outlets or gas stations in the world? Motivated people find solutions to EV logistics and it is getting easier every year.

Tesla has also said the Cybertruck will come with a solar panel option that can add 10-30 miles per day given configuration.

[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-math-shows-teslas-mod...

Tesla missed opportunity to describe headroom in backseat. A 6'5" man sat in back seat when asked how much leg room, he said "I have days" [1] and his head doesn't appear to touch glass ceiling.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=105&v=-oW-BVxoQF...

Order of magnitude cheaper to start with flat sheet, lasercut/waterjet/stamp out final shape, and bend.

They are starting the cut and bend operations with the fully hardened steel, so there is no post stress relieving / aging / finishing. It's about as simple as it can get for metal fabrication.

Welding also fundamentally changes the underlying steel properties. I'm not up to speed on full hard 301 SS, but most likely any thermal operation will degrade it's mechanical and chemical grain structure.

If starting with super hard cold rolled steel, it’s most likely impossible to “stamp” using traditional progressive stamping dies. The deformation has to exceed the final shape and via springback the final shape is produced.

Springback is possible on a press brake when folding along a single straight line. If panel needs a 30 deg bend, then bend it to 40, and it pops back 10 when off the press brake. As an example.

That quickly gets impossible to do when you start bending around complicated 3D contours.

Or that Elon Musk and SpaceX are doing real engineering work and other engineers recognize it and try to explain it to those who don't recognize engineering methods and processes?

At the highest level, the conversation looks like:

The design engineer: "We know on paper how the product needs to function in terms of strength, weight, durability, etc"

The manufacturing engineer: "We've never made something like this before. I've got a couple ideas how we can bend/shape/form/machine/weld these materials into the shape, but I don't know how those bend/shape/form/machine/welding operations are going to affect the underlying physical properties of the material. I know on paper these operations should be OK, and we can inspect them as we go, but again we've never done them before, we most likely will overlook something or discovery something new, so let's try one of them and break it early before we get too far down a potentially bad path."

The test engineer: "Well it worked up until X point then failed, here's the data for you design engineer and you manufacturing engineer, better try something else".

Design engineer: "Shoot, what we thought we were manufacturing isn't actually what got manufactured. Hmmm, is it even possible to make the part we need? Or do we now need to redesign the part because it can't actually be made. Let's try another approach. And maybe it's smart to pursue a few of these in parallel to increase our overall chance of success"

Those 3 roles can be the same person or separate organizations of hundreds/thousands of people. Requirements documents, manufacturing/quality reports, test reports, inspection reports are the language of this technical interchange.

I read this was a manufacturing pathfinder.

Manufacturing and assembly of high strength hardened steel is near black art.

Pathfinders do exactly what they say, they lead you through unknown territory to the outcome of the manufacturing journey you embarked on. Often things go boom, you find out why, add it to your corpus of black art knowledge, and keep pathfinding until you run out of budget / succeed / change mission.

So as manufacturing pathfinder, this is what success often looks like.

Lots of good reasons:

Restricted supply of hot product leads to greater demand and froth... see Tickle me Elmo, early model iPhones, etc. Hype is gold for new products.

Markets that never get demand met will eventually wither as alternatives arrive and resentment grows.

Establish distribution channels early at low volumes, fix the bugs, then scale at maximum profitability.

Forced induction only minimizes power loss at altitude. Higher boost pressure can make up for the lower oxygen density, but at the expense of increasing intake air charge temperature, hurting power output.

The all time record holder of the Pikes Peak hill climb is an EV.

I’d really like to see the details of the “proceeding slowly with painstaking care” looks like.

Airplanes never had airbags, crumple zones, etc. The odds of surviving a car crash are much higher than odds of surviving a plane crash. It seems therefore that testing in cars can be done with lower risk of loss of life. Yes, there will be fender benders and some deaths.

Conversely, batteries don’t lose power at altitude. Test driving a model 3 performance and doing day trip to Vail may change your views a bit.

Can you slice the data by day of week? If a weekly meeting(s) is(are) necessary, any insights on if better on M/Tu/W/Th/F?

Any strength / significance measures against weekly meeting times vs total weekly deep work hours?

Very interesting theory. Virtue signaling instead of solution finding at the company level.

We are also about 350,000 years overdue for a magnetic pole swap. [1]

Also, it cycles at 300,000-400,000 years not millions.

[1] https://futurism.com/earths-magnetic-poles-overdue-switch

Most doctors will tell you that they only use about 10% of what they learned in medical school or had to memorize for boards.

What lobby are you working for? Nicotine has been linked with numerous heart issues. Please share this peer reviewed literature you hint at.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3755365/

Rotating wheels generate a self balancing moment that resists falling over... which has nothing to do with balancing on a thin blade.

I’m pretty sure this author is trolling the reader.

Wow. I think you are going to want to investigate that a bit more if you are banking your own health on that statement.

Most of those options are included when buying a car on a lot from a dealership (who of course make most money with the high margin options). Bare bones options are extremely rare to come by.

$35k - $45k is hardly premium. Honda Accord moderately spec’d is high 30s.

Germans only added reasonable cup holders a decade ago.

$35k - $45k is hardly premium. Honda Accord moderately spec’d is high 30s.

If tesla’s autopilot were available to all vehicles for use only on highways (which is where most Tesla owners only use autopilot), the number of highway deaths due to inattentive drivers causing rear-ending accidents would drop to near zero overnight. It is so vastly superior to distracted humans on a highway, it is a “seatbelt” type revolution in terms of human safety.

But Tesla doesn’t seem to push this specific use-case resticted angle of it, Musk is focus on full self driving.

Point to evidence that free time leads people to do these wonderful things.

In a macro sense, biological life/evolution, economics, and production of goods points to innovation and efficiency gains being made by risking one’s time/enengy/resources in hope of creating a new local efficient outcome.

Free time has nothing do with that.

There is significant research into overconstrained 6, 7, 8+ bar linkages. For reference, an overcostrained 4 bar linkage is quite common, your standard “4-bar linkage”. The fun continues as you add more and more linkages.

I’m no expert, but I understand that there is no closed method for determining viable overconstrained sets past 4. So the research has a large amount of analytical/exploratory research. Very active field: https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&hl=en-us&ei=1bvk...