171 karma · joined August 3, 2022
Imho. it's just really hard to reason that average non-educational entertainment has a positive net effect on global society.
Seeing it this way makes it way less surprising that "art" and "creative entertainment" is one of the first things that gets hit by automation.
Not saying 32h hours is half-assing but I'd be surprised if the avg candidate pool for <=32h was as productive per hour as the others.
This one might not pass today but in 5-10 years we'll likely just be fine with it if the narrative continues to evolve on its current trajectory.
Also given how prevalent the issue of QR code brightness is for many use cases this could actually prove useful.
1st one being "Thinking fast and slow" by Daniel Kahneman - completely reshaped my model of how much we are in control of our thought process.
2nd one was "Thus spoke Zarathustra" by Nietzsche - which is a very difficult read. Overall Nietzsche's approach to philosophy just immediately resonated with me and sent me down a path of thought that's still the foundation of my world model today. The whole approach of seeing life as inherently meaningless so meaning can be chosen at will was a great thing to have growing up. You definitely don't need to read the book to get there though - just reading a summary of what Nietzsche is about will probably be enough.
However, imho. altering the thought process through drugs and really introspecting on what changes and how that relates to the sober state can yield a LOT of valuable learnings.
I feel like I learned a lot about myself just by introspecting on the effects alcohol, THC, etc. had on me. Really gave me some insights on how associations are formed, what euphoria does to decision making and so on.
This feels like a solid glimpse of the truly new things that we'll likely see take shape soon.
Reducing the supply of goods/materials will have the same effect - even at a constant money supply.
In Europe the ECB/EU gov is hiding behind the War in Ukraine and global supply chain issues to hide what is mostly their own pandemic purchasing program and overspending driving massive inflation.
Then there's also their there's also sanctions, trade wars and over-regulation adding fuel to the fire.
Of course none of these are a "natural effect from market dynamics" - as much as they'd love to make it sound like that.
A (sufficiently rational) investor's willingness to sell is mainly a function of current price vs. expected future returns compared to other viable alternatives - which of course includes the dividends paid and any other benefits they might gain from ownership. And yes, there's also changes in personal need for currency, psychological reasons, etc. but I'd consider these special cases.
Even in your case if you had any good indication towards the stock you're owning being severely overpriced, the likely optimal thing to to would be to sell and dump the money into the next best alternative.
I'd also suggest to be careful in the assumption that "holding a stock forever" is a good idea. Very few companies have existed forever so far.
I still haven't seen the actual argument for what would make a difference when it comes to Dividends vs. Buybacks.
They could've called it Avocado architecture - give the diagrams some color, even increase global demand for green whiteboard markers by 0.1% but nope... Would've sold just as well and would've made even more sense...
When it becomes hard to convince of obviously stupid things, that's when it starts to become a good counterpart for actual discussions... But right now it just isn't there yet.
It might feel like a real discussion to you but that's not what's happening. There's no actual reasoning behind it... More like clever parroting.
You're trying to live in one of the objectively best parts of Germany by a lot of stats and thus you're competing with a lot of folks.
I'm honestly sick of this whining about rent in top-tier areas. Living there is a luxury, given the major move to cities and scarcity, driven by insane regulations and basic logic.
There are plenty of cities in Germany with very cheap rent, where apartment buildings get torn down because they're vacant.
But of course the entitlement seems stronger than the willingness to compromise.
If you exclude nuclear war, all of these things happen at a human timescale and accelerate fairly slowly and thus can be counteracted.
In many ways GPT already hugely exceeds human speed and bandwith and scaling this up is likely to be self-accelerating if we allow for it. Also there is a huge individual incentive to play with the fire here while the negative externalities could cause effective wipeout - which is why it's commonly equated with commodification of nuclear weapons.
Even if you're deeply pessimistic about the ramp-up, the economic shock of what was already released could still increase political volatility to a point where the likelyhood of wipeout by war becomes significant again.
The only thing in your comment above I disagree with is the slight implication that education is underfunded in general.
Can't speak much about the UK but both the US and Germany (the ones I can speak about) put a shitload of money into education but manage to complete misallocate it. It isn't about the amount of pie, it's just the wrong pie.
A lot of subjects are literally self promoting nonsense without any sort of proven ROI. Haven't seen a western society with a school curriculum that would survive even the slightest bit of scrutiny.
Of course this isn't the teachers job to fix but obviously if one were to try and optimize this system, you'd start by fixing obvious flaws in allocation - as that's an even lower hanging fruit than technology. They completely failed to optimize both and I don't see any reason this would change now unless there's a collapse of the larger system.
It's not a competitive field. Teachers won't get replaced as new, more efficient modes of learning become available.
Barely any western education system has adapted to the existence of the internet - still teaching facts and using repetitive learning where completely useless.
We got high quality online courses which should render most of high school and university useless but yet the system continue in the old tracks, almost unchanged. It's never been competitive and it's likely always been more about certification of traits rather than actual learning. Both - I think - are pointers towards rapid change being unlikely.